ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[WiscoWx02]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1442159769196838914




I mean I sorta see where he is coming from but looking at satellite I just don't see a sign of that at this point...recon is still hours and hours off though so still think they'll get there as a replacement cycle begins or has just begun.

[aspen]

Recon leaves in about 2 and a half hours, and should be at Sam in about 5 hours. So far it has maintain its structure very well. If Sam’s structure deteriorates a bit but recon still finds a stronger storm, the NHC could raise the peak by 5 kt between the two flights in post-season analysis, like what they did with Hurricane Patricia.

Satellite estimates have also risen. ADT is up to 127 kt and SATCON is up to 134 kt, so a blend of those supports 130 kt. We could finally get an upgrade at 5pm.

[Teban54]

Latest frames have W ring slightly broken, but the eye continues to warm and remains very dry.

[Iceresistance]

I had to zoom in really close to see this properly, but does anyone recall seeing a Maroon Red color on WV before in the Eye in the past hour? (Image was 50 minutes before this post)

[aspen]

So. Much. Lightning.


Sam remains an absolute beast on IR/Dvorak despite a bit of warming similar to what happened last night.



Also the NOAA upper-level mission has just taken off.

[skyline385]

Looks like recon just took off..

[Teban54]

Looks like recon just took off..

That's an upper level mission, not a center fix.

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1442159769196838914

I mean I sorta see where he is coming from but looking at satellite I just don't see a sign of that at this point...recon is still hours and hours off though so still think they'll get there as a replacement cycle begins or has just begun.

Its been wobbling for a while, I literally posted a comment here about how much the core is wobbling because of its small size like last evening...

[CyclonicFury]

Btw NOAA2 (Kermit) is the plane doing today's low level mission, departing at 4 PM EDT. NOAA3 (Miss Piggy) is headed for St. Croix and will do a mission tomorrow. NOAA9 (Gonzo) is the Gulfstream plane that does the upper level missions, and just rook off.

[skyline385]

Btw NOAA2 (Kermit) is the plane doing today's low level mission, departing at 4 PM EDT. NOAA3 (Miss Piggy) is headed for St. Croix and will do a mission tomorrow. NOAA9 (Gonzo) is the Gulfstream plane that does the upper level missions, and just rook off.

ahh heck got excited and didnt even see that it was NOAA9

[Teban54]

I had to zoom in really close to see this properly, but does anyone recall seeing a Maroon Red color on WV before in the Eye in the past hour? (Image was 50 minutes before this post)

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GOES16_1km_wv_202109261645_13.50_14.25_-50.50_-49.75_wv1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_sst_weathernerds.png

I think maroon red has been popping up inconsistently for a while now. It's there at 1545z, 1645z and 1735z.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye temps continue to warm on satellite, now consistently in the 15-20c range

[InfernoFlameCat]

The storm has to be at least 130 knots.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also Sam is really a prolific lightning producer. It is producing unusual amounts of lightning.

[aspen]

ADT finally supports 130 kt, and Sam still has that T#6.5-7.0 look. Now is the time for that long awaited 130 kt upgrade.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Sam now has a more moist environment of which to feed upon thanks to the development of feeder bands. Dry air should no longer be an issue.

[DioBrando]

ADT finally supports 130 kt, and Sam still has that T#6.5-7.0 look. Now is the time for that long awaited 130 kt upgrade.

Sam has a really good environment ahead of her. I bet she'd continue to strengthen beyond this point; there's nothing stopping her right now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

ADT finally supports 130 kt, and Sam still has that T#6.5-7.0 look. Now is the time for that long awaited 130 kt upgrade.

Sam has a really good environment ahead of her. I bet she'd continue to strengthen beyond this point; there's nothing stopping her right now.

Sam is a dude name for this storm lol. But yeah I agree.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2021 Time : 175020 UTC
Lat : 14:07:48 N Lon : 50:16:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 939.5mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +18.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[Iceresistance]

Sam is now moving NNW