ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lilbump3000]

[Orlando]

Are any local news stations covering the storm live?

[aspen]

The 2am intermediate position is a lot further south than from the 11pm advisory. That should drag the entire track south for the 5am advisory, which means Debby should spend more time back over water…assuming it doesn’t stall over Florida and Georgia (which the HWRF is still insistent on).

When is the next recon flight scheduled? Landfall could be before 8am at this rate.

[AtlanticWind]

Recon On the way, I believe

[chaser1]

Recon On the way, I believe

That's good. Nothing like fresh data. I wish I had a better satellite enhancement. It was a number of years ago (before Tropical Tidbits) but I used a particular site that had a number of different IR enhancements; One of them had a red overlay which I loved. I was able to see features that I could not pick up on with the other color enhancements. Anyway, its hard to tell purely by radar and satellite interpretation but other than perhaps a slight drop in surface pressure, nothing that I'm seeing leads me to think that there is significant improvement to it's inner core. Maybe they'll bump the winds up by 5mph but I'm just not seeing too much change, nor expect any prior to landfall in about 2-3 hours.

[kevin]

Recon should be at Debby in 1 - 1.5 hours.

[chaser1]

Recon should be at Debby in 1 - 1.5 hours.

Nope, can't do it LOL. Have the recon pilot wake me up when he gets there.

[kevin]

Debby has quite a large region of low pressure. Recon is about 120km/75mi from the center and pressure has already steadily fallen from 1012 mb to 1000 mb.

[kevin]

Not yet at the center, pressure already down to 991.8 mb, 58 kt SFMR so far on the weaker NW side.

[zzzh]

979.5mb extrap.

[kevin]

First center pass, extrapolated pressure of 979.5 mb with 16 kt winds which supports ~978 mb. 64 kt SFMR and 46 kt FL winds on the weaker NW side.

[kevin]

Pass of the SE quadrant, 66 kt FL winds and 64 kt SFMR. With some reasonable undersampling of such a broad system, this first pass supports an intensity of 978-979 mb and 70 kt.

[sponger]

She is very close to coming ashore.

[aspen]

Pass of the SE quadrant, 66 kt FL winds and 64 kt SFMR. With some reasonable undersampling of such a broad system, this first pass supports an intensity of 978-979 mb and 70 kt.

So it looks to be holding steady. Good for the immediate landfall area. Another Beryl situation with a surprisingly forceful Cat 1 undergoing RI-to-landfall is ruled out.

This reminds me of Idalia, which was coming in at the same angle and leveled off in the last 6-ish hours before landfall.

[kevin]

NHC indeed went with 979 mb, 70 kt.

Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY VERY NEAR LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Another chase for Josh.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1820387121888182605

[kevin]

Second pass, 979.0 mb with 29 kt FL winds & 18 kt SFMR at the center. Supports slight strengthening to 977 - 978 mb, even though winds are still similar with 68 kt FL and 65 kt SFMR.

[kevin]

Very close to landfall now.

[caneman]

Wow. Debby was far more than expected. It will be interesting to see final rainfall totals. This will be far more memorable than Idalia down here in the Pinellas area.

[REDHurricane]

Landfall radar loop: