TD 10...Back Again

[SouthFloridawx]

elysium has been talking about this for the last day saying it could develope although most of you wrote him off because of his extreme thoughts on this storm. Everyone is different some of us could be right and some of us could be wrong and then there are some of us who could care in the least what happens. But, he did say he thought he had confindence in this system. Listen there are no advisories on this system it doesn't even show a closed LLC.

Where is the QS pass it totally missed this area? What do the Professional METS say about this system?

[clfenwi]

Comments in the evening TWD:

AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE USA CONTROLS THE WEATHER W OF
75W N OF 25.. GENERALLY DRIER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 29N64W HERALDING AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 23N69W. TSTM ACTIVITY IS CONSIDERABLE E OF THE
TROUGH WITH A SCATTERED AREA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 63W-67W.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE TROUGH ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK TOWARD
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW MODELS ALSO HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT
BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AS LONG AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
STAYS TO THE W OF MOST OF THE TSTMS. AN UPPER HIGH IS BEHIND
THE TROUGH... CENTERED NEAR 26N57W. A FEW TSTMS N FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 56W-66W... A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE
NEAR AN OLD SURFACE TROUGH.

[dwg71]

FEW MODELS ALSO HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT
BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AS LONG AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
STAYS TO THE W OF MOST OF THE TSTMS.

Doesn't sound like they are buying into the hype..

[Wthrman13]

Well, the upper-level winds have certainly become much more favorable today, but the system is still pretty disorganized. I certainly haven't written it off.

[x-y-no]

elysium has been talking about this for the last day saying it could develope although most of you wrote him off because of his extreme thoughts on this storm. Everyone is different some of us could be right and some of us could be wrong and then there are some of us who could care in the least what happens. But, he did say he thought he had confindence in this system. Listen there are no advisories on this system it doesn't even show a closed LLC.

Where is the QS pass it totally missed this area? What do the Professional METS say about this system?

The reason elysium was catching flak is because he was saying things like "TD10 has never looked better" at the time when the remnant of TD10 was losing its LLC completely, and saying it was entering a rapid intensification phase within half a day at a time when even cursory examination of the environment around it showed that conditions were not at all suitable for redevelopment, let alone intensification.

Look, we're supposedly here to learn. That includes making some predictions that turn out to be wrong. But if we're all supposed to just sing Kumbaya and pretend that all ideas are equally valid, then learning becomes impossible, and that's a disservice to everyone who comes here really wanting to learn.

So yes, I and others were harsh to elysium. Sometimes that's what's called for, if we want to have any hope of separating the wheat from the chaff.

Jan

[artist]

great post Jan!

[clfenwi]

18Z GFDL output

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.9 68.0 295./12.0
6 20.6 69.3 256./12.3
12 21.0 70.6 285./12.7
18 21.0 71.9 273./12.0
24 21.2 72.6 287./ 7.5
30 21.6 74.1 286./13.8
36 22.5 75.2 308./13.4
42 22.8 76.4 283./12.1
48 22.8 77.2 267./ 7.6
54 22.9 78.4 279./10.8
60 22.8 78.8 254./ 3.5
66 23.1 79.4 293./ 6.6
72 23.2 80.3 279./ 7.8
78 23.3 80.9 276./ 5.9
84 24.0 81.4 323./ 7.9
90 24.3 82.1 293./ 7.2

STORM DISSIPATED AT 90 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[superfly]

elysium has been talking about this for the last day saying it could develope although most of you wrote him off because of his extreme thoughts on this storm. Everyone is different some of us could be right and some of us could be wrong and then there are some of us who could care in the least what happens. But, he did say he thought he had confindence in this system.

Actually he didn't say it "could" develop. He said it was rapidly intensifying and that it would become a major hurricane bearing down on south Florida within a day.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well,

pass the crow....I take mine with eastern NC BBQ sauce! The vinegar knocks the gaminess down. I thought the LLC would survive the shear and by now it would be a TS skimming the northern islands. BUST.

I post that lest I be accused of not verifying. I feel I am in good company since even some pros gave it 60% favorable.

I suppose that a new LLC can form, but I have no experience with a wave climbing the back of trough. So, I'll offer no prognostications or even a guess. Dissipation would be best, rather than sneaky system in the bathtub like GOM in mid August.

But like any persistent flare of convection in the Carib., it should be watched this close to folks. And the little wave that didn't...doesn't another day sheesh

[WeatherEmperor]

00z model plots are out. Graphic to update soon.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[wzrgirl1]

00z model plots are out. Graphic to update soon.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

won't load for me for some reason

[deltadog03]

oooooo....new 00z models show a long track gomer potentially...haha...interesting

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050820 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050820 0000 050820 1200 050821 0000 050821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 68.7W 21.9N 70.7W 22.2N 72.9W 22.2N 75.0W
BAMM 21.3N 68.7W 21.8N 70.8W 22.2N 72.9W 22.4N 74.9W
A98E 21.3N 68.7W 22.0N 70.8W 22.8N 72.8W 23.2N 75.0W
LBAR 21.3N 68.7W 22.0N 70.9W 22.5N 73.0W 23.1N 75.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050822 0000 050823 0000 050824 0000 050825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.1N 77.0W 21.6N 80.0W 21.7N 82.3W 22.6N 85.6W
BAMM 22.5N 76.5W 22.7N 79.0W 23.6N 81.1W 25.3N 83.8W
A98E 22.9N 77.4W 23.0N 81.6W 22.8N 85.2W 23.3N 88.8W
LBAR 23.3N 77.7W 24.1N 81.5W 24.9N 84.5W 26.1N 87.6W
SHIP 46KTS 60KTS 70KTS 74KTS
DSHP 46KTS 60KTS 70KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 68.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 66.8W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 19.5N LONM24 = 63.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WeatherEmperor]

00z model plots are out. Graphic to update soon.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

won't load for me for some reason

I just updated the link. Try it again.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

the ships brings it to CANE status? has that always been showing that?

[artist]

try this and scroll down -

http://weather.net-waves.com/td10.php

[mahicks]

looks decent on the zoomed ramsis visible loop...




Or the loop...(click on the left)
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


Any comments??

[wzrgirl1]

try this and scroll down -

http://weather.net-waves.com/td10.php

Thanks artist!!

[WeatherEmperor]

If the models really hold true then the FL Keys are the biggest threat in terms of the US. Looks like it could pass inbetween the Keys and Cuba into the Gulf if models verify.

<RICKY>

[swimaster20]

OK, I haven't been paying attention to the last model runs, has the header always said TD 10 and initialized with 25 knot winds?