ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[wxman57]

It does look very likely that El Nino will not be a factor in the Atlantic Basin in 2010.

Looks like an active year for your team wxman57. Aren't you just thrilled about all the weekends you'll be in the office.

I'm already planning on working 7 days a week in August and September, and maybe before and beyond then. It was nice having the break in 2009. It'll be interesting to see what Klotzbach/Gray say next Wednesday at the NHC. I'll probably run into Phil on Tuesday and get a little inside info on the new forecast. I think he'll be upping the numbers for 2010 to around 15-16 named storms, though I think the number could still be higher. Hard to account for some variables in naming, though, like the 40 mph TS that's named after it moves inland into Central America, or the STS named by the Azores, or a very short-lived TS by the Cape Verde Islands.

[srainhoutx]

It does look very likely that El Nino will not be a factor in the Atlantic Basin in 2010.

Looks like an active year for your team wxman57. Aren't you just thrilled about all the weekends you'll be in the office.

I'm already planning on working 7 days a week in August and September, and maybe before and beyond then. It was nice having the break in 2009. It'll be interesting to see what Klotzbach/Gray say next Wednesday at the NHC. I'll probably run into Phil on Tuesday and get a little inside info on the new forecast. I think he'll be upping the numbers for 2010 to around 15-16 named storms, though I think the number could still be higher.

Just wish we could get you some 80's while in FL. Look foward to your thoughts after the conference.

[cycloneye]

I look at this TAO graphic everyday as it updates daily to see how the anomalies are doing and also the wind directions.It looks like the warm ssta's are shrinking slowly and the winds are easterly and not from the west,meaning that no new kevin waves are on sight in the near future.

[cycloneye]

When you see this graphic,concentrate on the blue lines and not on the red ones as those blue are the recent 40 ensembles imput.I think CFS is the best solution of the ENSO models that has the best outlook of expected conditions.ECM and the Japanese may be too extreme towards a full blown La Nina in a relative short period of time.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree cycloneye however that being said the CFS does seem to be trending more and more into La Nina grounds which would make 1998 a cracking match in terms of broad set-ups.

Pretty much the risk of El Nino is gone according to the forecasts, its now whether we go into full blown La Nina or not...

[cycloneye]

I have noticed that there is a difference between some models in terms of the threshold number for El Nino / La Nina.For example,Climate Prediction Center or CFS has its threshold at + or - 0.5C and the POAMA (Aussie Model) has it as + or-0.8C.Why they have that difference?

[KWT]

Hmmm not sure really, possibly just one of those things I'd imagine.

Still the models are rather agressive in bringing in a La Nina now in general for the summer, I still think this is too agressive because in the early Spring the models tend to jump too quickly on trends for some reason, as noted by various agencies in the past about how the forecasting accuracy decreases in March.

[cycloneye]

KWT,this is what I see as the difference between those models on the threshold.

POAMA Model

May 2010
For the 30 runs of POAMA between 1 Feb 2010 and 2 Mar 2010, the average NINO3.4 temperature anomaly for MAY 2010 is +0.52°C and the frequency distribution is as follows:
below −0.8°C: 0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 90.0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 10.0% (Warm)

Aug 2010
And similarly for AUGUST 2010 the average NINO3.4 index is +0.05°C and the frequency distribution is:
[b]below −0.8°C: 0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 100.0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm

CPC / CFS

El Niño:characterized by a positiveONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C.
La Niña:characterized by a negativeONI less than or equal to -0.5°C

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI index always lags behind the daily data so as the daily numbers are in positive territory,that will cause the 30 day index to start going up soon.

Daily SOI Index

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

30 day SOI Index

[KWT]

Yeah it'll spike upwards once we lose those -20s we had in early March, that'll drag the 30 day average up quite a lot I'd have thought.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 3/29/10 update

El Nino 3.4 decreased slightly from last week's update +1.2C to this week +1.1C.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.1ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.2ºC
Niño 3= +0.7ºC
Niño1+2= -0.1ºC


This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.1ºC
Niño 3= +0.7ºC
Niño1+2= +0.1ºC


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

WMO (World Meteorological Organization) forecasts Neutral ENSO by mid year

Interesting the discussion by this organization about ENSO.They dont expect a full blown La Nina as some models are predicting.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE62 ... dChannel=0

[cycloneye]

The Aussies daily chart has El Nino 3.4 at this time at +1.0C and in a trend of dipping.

[cycloneye]

Australian 3/31/10 update of ENSO

The headline from this update is that El Nino resumes its breakdown after stalling for the past two weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Summary: El Niño breakdown resumes

The recent decrease in trade wind strength over the Pacific, which stalled the decay of the current El Niño event, appears to have ended. Trade winds have strengthened over the Pacific during the past fortnight, leading to a slight cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central Pacific. In contrast, temperatures in the far eastern Pacific have risen, though this rise is a flow-on effect from a wind burst in January/February, rather than any indicator of a return to warm conditions more generally. Overall, Pacific Ocean temperatures remain at levels associated with an El Niño event, but are again cooling in line with expectations.

The most noticeable feature of the past fortnight has been the decrease in Pacific Ocean heat content, with values east of the dateline dropping to their lowest values since April 2009, indicating the deeper ocean is also slowly cooling. Likewise, sea surface height in the central and eastern Pacific is also decreasing.

Computer models suggest Pacific Ocean temperatures will cool steadily over the coming months, returning to neutral levels by the southern winter.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and is forecast to remain so through autumn.

In Brief

Central Pacific sea surface temperatures remain warmer than the long-term average.
The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific continues to cool.
The SOI has fallen slightly through March. The latest approximate 30-day value of the SOI is −12.
Trade winds have strengthened in the equatorial Pacific.
Cloudiness near the date-line has fluctuated through March.
Most international computer models are predicting a return to neutral conditions during the southern hemisphere autumn.

Details

The Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) remains warmer than the long-term average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The preliminary SST anomaly map for March shows warm anomalies in excess of +1°C covering most of the central equatorial Pacific and parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. The preliminary monthly NINO indices for March are +0.8°C, +1.1°C and +1.0°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively.

In terms of weekly data, the most recent NINO indices are +0.8°C, +1.0°C and +1.0°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. When compared with two weeks ago, NINO3 and NINO4 have cooled by approximately 0.1°C and NINO3.4 has cooled by approximately 0.2°C. The 7-day SST anomaly map shows warm anomalies covering most of the equatorial Pacific east of 170°E. When compared with anomalies observed two weeks ago, the eastern equatorial Pacific has warmed slightly while the central equatorial Pacific has cooled. An animation of recent SST changes is available.

A four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomaly shows a cooling of the sub-surface water in the central and western Pacific over the past four months. Some renewed warming has occurred in the eastern Pacific during March after cooling during January and February. A recent map for the 5 days ending 29 March shows that the top 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific remains warmer than the long-term average across the central to eastern Pacific, with anomalies exceeding +5.0°C below the surface in the eastern Pacific. When compared with two weeks ago, the central Pacific has cooled significantly. An animation of recent sub-surface changes is available.


Trade winds have recently strengthened across the western equatorial Pacific. Trade winds remain close to average in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly wind anomalies are shown in the TAO/TRITON map (small image above) for the five days ending 29 March.

The SOI has decreased slightly during the last three weeks after rising through the last half of February. The current (31 March) 30-day value of the SOI is −12, while the monthly value for February was −15. (SOI graph, SOI table).

Since September 2009, until recently, Cloudiness near the date-line has been above to well above average, consistent with El Niño conditions. Cloudiness near the date-line has fluctuated during the later part of March coinciding with a cooling of the sea surface in the region.

Most international computer models are predicting the Pacific Ocean will cool steadily over the coming months, returning to neutral levels during the southern autumn. Typically, autumn is a transitional period for the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), hence model predictions of El Niño that forecast through this period tend to be less reliable than at other times of the year. Recent forecasts from the POAMA model, run daily at the Bureau of Meteorology, show a steady cooling of the central Pacific with SSTs returning to neutral conditions during the southern hemisphere autumn.

[KWT]

The next 2 months should see the El nino totally decay in terms of signal, its been quite obvious for the last week since the trades have nce again flipped after being briefly more favourable to El nino for the last month or so.

El Nino is probably on its last legs now but we shall see!

[cycloneye]

There is no question that El Nino will not be around when summer in the northern hemisphere arrives on June 21rst by looking at this CFS subsurface forecast.

[cycloneye]

Those blues are expanding and you know what that means.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest summary of all the ENSO models and they all coincide that El Nino will be gone by early summer.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

[KWT]

You can see the warmer surface waters slowly retreating eastwards as the subsurface cools from the western part of the basin.

Certainly is looking likely we will be cool neutral-La Nina this season now, at least for the important part of the season.

[Plant grower]

Those blues are expanding and you know what that means.

It means we all need to have our vacation plans ready by next month.