Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Yes northjaxpro, the potential is there for a significant freeze for peninsula Florida. In fact the latest GFS brings 20s deep into Central Florida Jan 5th so is close to the Euro now in the same timeframe. With both these reliable models in agreement on the extreme cold it is getting a bit concerning.

[psyclone]

Well let's hope this doesn't happen. Like hurricanes, big freeze events are part of defining weather events for FL. there's a reason the state looks so different from top to bottom...and these occasional freezes are it. Still time for a better solution to pop onto the table. I'll be looking to see if the CPC outlooks turn a deeper shade of blue this afternoon. that would lend credence to the cooler solutions. otherwise this is still wait and see

[SFLcane]

Euro still trying to bring an ice age into Florida.

[boca]

Does the Euro know the NAO is positive.

[SFLcane]

Does the Euro know the NAO is positive.

Unfortunately GFS has something similar

[gatorcane]

Has Florida’s freeze luck finally run out?

[boca]

How is it able to get that cold with a positive NAO because from what I've read it's not ideal for Florida as far as getting very cold. I'm still on the fence believing this cold out break will happen.

[gatorcane]

NWS Tampa:

Uncertainty in forecast increases next week. On Monday a cold front
will stall out in the Florida Straits as a low in western Gulf of
Mexico moves along the boundary and into the Atlantic Wednesday. GFS
is aggressive with rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday while ECMWF
brings in colder air faster on Wednesday. Will cap rain chances at
40% and will blend the high and low temperatures between the models.
Both models suggest record cold high temperatures next Thursday,
ranging from around 50 in The Villages to 65 in Fort Myers.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... hlight=off

[northjaxpro]

How is it able to get that cold with a positive NAO because from what I've read it's not ideal for Florida as far as getting very cold. I'm still on the fence believing this cold out break will happen.

Go back a couple of pages in which a -NAO is not necessarily needed to bring very cold outbreaks to the state. A -NAO is the ideal setup teleconnection for bringing very cold spells in winter, but not the only exclusive one. I explained that in a couple of posts.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro trough at 168 hours:

[boca]

Thx northjaxpro I saw what you wrote

[northjaxpro]

The 6Z GFS is now out and for people across my region of Northeast Florida, especially from Highway 301 eastward to the coast, this new run is very intriguing. GFS continues with an active subtropical jet, and the period from 06Z Tuesday -12Z Wednesday morning is the focus.

GFS continues to show a rather vigorous surface trough along and just off the coast of Northeast and Central Florida. The base of the upper level trough axis is still just west of the region over the Panhandle and Big Bend area. The 540 partial thickness line is indicated right across extreme Northeast Florida as the precip shield from the coastal trough is in the area.from 0Z Tuesday evening thru 12Z Wednesday mothing.

This 6Z run, should it come to pass, does offer a possibility for about a 6-12 hour window of seeing wintry precip around the Jax metro area before the precipitation exits as the surface trough shifts farther offshore later in the day by Wednesday afternoon.

This is something for me here to closely watch, other than the upcoming freezes expected across this area. during the next week. Any subtle changes with this surface trough could lead to more substantial implications.

[SFLcane]

Does the Euro know the NAO is positive.

Maybe it woke up..00z Euro is warmer and gfs has mid 40’s across SFL which isn’t anything ordinary.

[NDG]

The positive NAO may still be the saving grace for central & southern FL, both the GFS & Euro have been backing away from their forecast of an epic freeze for the end of next week. Central FL may still get a couple of light freezes but that's better than the low to mid 20s the Euro was forecasting a couple of nights ago.

[boca]

I knew the models would back off just off by one day, without a negative NAO the cold will generally go east and not south.

[NDG]

I knew the models would back off just off by one day, without a negative NAO the cold will generally go east and not south.

Yeap, the core of the arctic air will always go out to the Atlantic instead of diving straight down to FL. If the NAO would have been way negative like it was in 2010 we would have been in big trouble.

[JaxGator]

Hey guys, hope everyone had a merry Christmas!! It did get cold for Christmas after the record highs Northeast Florida had just days prior. And the cold has set in and it's a "moist cold". I've been intrigued on how this next article blast will shape up. The forecast timeline is narrowing, but still the forecast itself still could change looking at the models.

[AdamFirst]

For what its worth: CMC remains bullish on statewide freeze event, with extreme cold for the central and northern parts of the state

[NDG]

CMC is on flaca.

[boca]

NDG that was funny.