ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

175900 3016N 08001W 8430 01536 0075 +142 +130 132063 070 065 029 00

[KWT]

Sabanic, the path should bend back more to the west then that as thats just an extrap motion. Recom seems to show that this system is still only crawling.

[HURAKAN]

243
URNT12 KNHC 211818
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 21/17:34:30Z
B. 29 deg 25 min N
080 deg 57 min W
C. 850 mb 1369 m
D. 55 kt
E. 090 deg 031 nm
F. 188 deg 055 kt
G. 090 deg 057 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1524 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 2606A FAY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 59 KT SE QUAD 16:09:30 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 61 KT NE QUAD 1800Z

[jdjaguar]

175900 3016N 08001W 8430 01536 0075 +142 +130 132063 070 065 029 00

65 ground? what quadrant? winds really starting to pick up in NW St. Johns...transformer just blew nearby..still have power though (for now)

[Sabanic]

Sabanic, the path should bend back more to the west then that as thats just an extrap motion. Recom seems to show that this system is still only crawling.

Gotcha.

[dixiebreeze]

Pressure here at 29.78 -- pretty low. I doubt Fay will lost much strength on her trek to the gulf coast, too much warm water on both sides and a very narrow path from East to West.

[Pebbles]

2MPH!! LOL..Thats depressing

Well if any chasers wanted to... they could WALK in the center of Fay across Florida.

[KWT]

Wow if that 70kts at flight level is right then this is a much stronger storm then we thought, its interesting because surface winds are also high!

Also that vortex suggests its actually had a ever so slight south of west motion but given the center is so broad they may just missed the center to the south this time.

[cpdaman]

Pressure here at 29.78 -- pretty low. I doubt Fay will lost much strength on her trek to the gulf coast, too much warm water on both sides and a very narrow path from East to West.

i think the key will be low shear, no dry air , and last but not least, excellent upper level divergence, will she have all 3 to sustain her for her trip across the state?

[fci]

The lulls in between bands is deceiving.
I can't be too upset with the school officials. It's hard to make a judgement when the NHC can't even be sure of strength or track.
But I still say that as of 5am in the metro area, there was enough evidence to err on the side of caution, once again.
After the 2004 season, all the districts 'built in' at least 3 make-up days for weather. I guess they're trying to ration them based on still being in the 1st half of the season

They built in 19 days here in Palm Beach County
Based on the multiple hurricane years of the past they know that the "days to be made up" can add up quickly.
It makes the decision to close easier when they have already made calendar plans well in advance.

So, instead of a half day on 9/25, they go a full day ot make up for Tuesday.

[carversteve]

Wow if that 70kts at flight level is right then this is a much stronger storm then we thought, its interesting because surface winds are also high!

Also that vortex suggests its actually had a ever so slight south of west motion but given the center is so broad they may just missed the center to the south this time.

Not sure how to read this..but over at wunderground it says maximum surface winds at 75 mph with a pressure of 994.2..What exatly does that mean?.The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.......

[Dean4Storms]

We may see some stronger winds with the pressure gradient tightening, not out of the question.

[Stormcenter]

Call it a illlusion but Fay looks like she definitely moving or drifting wnw and not westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Jason_B]

Call it a illlusion but Fay looks like she definitely moving or drifting wnw and not westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Almost looks like she's getting ready to take I-10 through the panhandle.

[vbhoutex]

FAY is taking the grand florida tour....might just be the 1st storm to affect every quadrant of the state.

from Key West to Jax to Pensacola

Presuming Fay does go west and gets back over the GOM, has there ever been a single storm with 4 landfalls in one state?

[CrazyC83]

70 kt FL would be 56 kt at the surface.

[WeatherNLU]

Following every little wobble is just not a good idea, but I wanted to get into the fun. I don't think this is a motion as much as it is a change in the size of the center but the southern rain shield is surely sagging south.

Just after 1:00 PM EDT



Just after 2:00 PM EDT

[Sanibel]

Maybe all the good overhead conditions are enhanced by slipping westward under the High?

[KWT]

I think if that recon is right the NHC may have to up the winds to 55kts, maybe even 60kts given the surface winds are also pretty impressive as well eve if they maybe a little high.

[carversteve]

She really looks like she likes tasting the land and water together..Does not look bad..as big as the center is it could touch the east coast while emerging into the gulf.......The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products