Texas Winter 2012-2013

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Speaking of heat a little off topic. I think there's a misconception about wxman57 on here! He doesn't like cold, but he does like snow! You guys should go back to some of the older threads like back in December 2009, if there's a good chance of it in Houston he will be the first to jump on it. In short, our resident heat miser has an inner kid that most of us usually do not see most people don't remember this!

That is true. The only good use for cold is to make snow. If it's not going to snow, the temperature might as well be 90 degrees.

ignore him Tireman and enjoy your run today!

[Rgv20]

http://i45.tinypic.com/5ciwky.gif[/img][img]http://i48.tinypic.com/wt7uxv.gif

Eyeballing the QPF and 850 temps, maybe 2-4 for the metroplex on it?

1-2'' of Snow in North Texas on the 0zECMWF courtesy of Accueweather Pro.

[wxman57]

0z Euro is something to behold, looks like a Texas snow in the making (though hard to tell with intervals). What a fun run right? Very cold and very stormy. A lot more suppressed than other runs of it and GFS.

I don't have to interpolate as I get the Euro in 6hr increments. Here's a plot of 24hr snowfall valid noon Christmas to noon Wednesday. It shows 4-6mm of liquid equivalent over the D-FW area. That's about 1/5 of an inch or so, which equates to 1-2" of snow.

[Tireman4]

That is true. The only good use for cold is to make snow. If it's not going to snow, the temperature might as well be 90 degrees.[/quote]

ignore him Tireman and enjoy your run today! [/quote]


You dang right. After yesterday, this is heaven. Even with the 20-25 mph winds...

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

0z Euro is something to behold, looks like a Texas snow in the making (though hard to tell with intervals). What a fun run right? Very cold and very stormy. A lot more suppressed than other runs of it and GFS.

I don't have to interpolate as I get the Euro in 6hr increments. Here's a plot of 24hr snowfall valid noon Christmas to noon Wednesday. It shows 4-6mm of liquid equivalent over the D-FW area. That's about 1/5 of an inch or so, which equates to 1-2" of snow.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/euro00z20.gif

We have to do better than that this winter!!! I really want to see some really impressive snowmen down there (and the pics to prove it).

That is true. The only good use for cold is to make snow. If it's not going to snow, the temperature might as well be 90 degrees.

ignore him Tireman and enjoy your run today! [/quote]


You dang right. After yesterday, this is heaven. Even with the 20-25 mph winds...[/quote]

[gboudx]

Pertinent part from jeff's email:

Long Range:

Little agreement within the models for the Christmas week storm system. GFS and ECMWF have nearly switch positions from yesterday on their track of the upper level system on Christmas Day and the associated weather across the state. Given the ongoing blizzard over the central plains yesterday with a decent snow pack from CO to IA this morning and the fact that shallow arctic air masses tend to bleed southward more than forecast by models….I am leaning toward the colder ECMWF solution. Suspect the strong frontal boundary may reach the region faster than currently shown in the models (around the 26th). Models will really not have a good grasp on this system until likely Sunday when it moves into the western US sounding network.

For now will go with a gradual warming trend over the weekend under increasing southerly flow and humidity. By Monday we will be back near record highs and it will feel very much like yesterday. Rain chances begin to increase Monday evening and peak on Tuesday. Christmas appears warm, but if the front is faster than expected a sharp drop in temperatures would occur during the day on Tuesday. Upper trough in the ECMWF comes across in the cold air on Christmas night with winter precipitation across much of NC and N TX. For now, any winter precipitation looks to remain well north of our area, but the whole system and evolution of factors over the next 48-72 hours does bear watch.

[weatherdude1108]

With all of this talk about next week ... I think this week's cold front felt slighted! Fairly dramatic post-fropa weather here in Austin with winds 25-30 and gusts to the low 40s and unofficial gust reports near 50 mph. Numerous, scattered power outages around town as well as structure/brush fires. Busy morning for our first responders, unfortunately. Oh yeah, about a 26-degree temperature drop since midnight. We're sitting 44 degrees at 6:40 a.m.

It was wild! The only dramatic thing that happened on my end was a free-standing swing that blew over. That always happens when a front or storm comes through though. Other than that a few small branches stripped off. Trees still standing.

I saw Camp Mabry had sustained winds of 20 mph with a gust at 40 mph at 2:51 a.m. this morning. The airport has sustained winds of 28 mph with a gust at 41 mph at the same time. That is the time period when the wind woke me up. So I'm sure my place wasn't that far of those numbers. Not as major as our Dallas friends dealt had to deal with. I saw that line of storms as far south as Temple last night. So close, yet so far.

Here's hoping for a white Christmas, or white holiday period. It only needs to be a flake or two to count.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

BTW I ordered these from Lee Valley this year:
http://royalnonsense.com/2011/12/friday-favorite-star-ice-lantern/ pretty sure something similar must be down there however.

I'm thinking if you folks made them in your freezer and set them outside (on one of your coolest days) they might have a hope of lasting the day (unless you live in North Texas and have colder temps).

This person did a lot of experimenting with them http://photocreations.ca/ice_lantern/index.html

If nothing else arrives at your city they are at least a touch of winter (I like the clear ones best).

Also saw where some filled balloons with water, froze them, and set them out (ok as long as kids aren't tempted to throw them).

[dhweather]

Speaking of heat a little off topic. I think there's a misconception about wxman57 on here! He doesn't like cold, but he does like snow! You guys should go back to some of the older threads like back in December 2009, if there's a good chance of it in Houston he will be the first to jump on it. In short, our resident heat miser has an inner kid that most of us usually do not see most people don't remember this!

That is true. The only good use for cold is to make snow. If it's not going to snow, the temperature might as well be 90 degrees.

I am in near complete agreement with you on this. A few hard freezes do help with insect control. But I really feel if its going to be below freezing, it needs to be snowing.

[vbhoutex]

Speaking of heat a little off topic. I think there's a misconception about wxman57 on here! He doesn't like cold, but he does like snow! You guys should go back to some of the older threads like back in December 2009, if there's a good chance of it in Houston he will be the first to jump on it. In short, our resident heat miser has an inner kid that most of us usually do not see most people don't remember this!

That is true. The only good use for cold is to make snow. If it's not going to snow, the temperature might as well be 90 degrees.

I am in near complete agreement with you on this. A few hard freezes do help with insect control. But I really feel if its going to be below freezing, it needs to be snowing.

Definitely how I feel about it. Maybe 90f is a little to high, but the lower end I am in total agreement on. I HATE cold temperatures and rain. This brutal wind with the cold today we are having today is useless too!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Tons of trees down in my area this morning... we had some wicked 50-60 mph wind gusts last night that blew the transformer.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

the extra fans.

[dhweather]

Well, surprisingly the cap eroded quickly late yesterday afternoon and convection fired up along the front last night as it moved through the metroplex. We got .39 inches of rain, which was very welcomed. No hail and gusts only to 37mph.


As for next week, I'm still skeptical - the general pattern this fall and winter has had all of the dynamics going well north of us, limited moisture to work with, thus no precip.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well, surprisingly the cap eroded quickly late yesterday afternoon and convection fired up along the front last night as it moved through the metroplex. We got .39 inches of rain, which was very welcomed. No hail and gusts only to 37mph.


As for next week, I'm still skeptical - the general pattern this fall and winter has had all of the dynamics going well north of us, limited moisture to work with, thus no precip.

All patterns come to an end at some point.

[iorange55]

Well, surprisingly the cap eroded quickly late yesterday afternoon and convection fired up along the front last night as it moved through the metroplex. We got .39 inches of rain, which was very welcomed. No hail and gusts only to 37mph.


As for next week, I'm still skeptical - the general pattern this fall and winter has had all of the dynamics going well north of us, limited moisture to work with, thus no precip.

All patterns come to an end at some point.

Yeah, it's a little different than any situation we've had this year...it's kind of hard to compare. This a really strong cold front (models tend to always be too slow with the cold) and if that is the case, the storm might track further south along the front of the cold air. It's the kind of storm/cold air that the models always have trouble with.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

0z Euro is something to behold, looks like a Texas snow in the making (though hard to tell with intervals). What a fun run right? Very cold and very stormy. A lot more suppressed than other runs of it and GFS.

I don't have to interpolate as I get the Euro in 6hr increments. Here's a plot of 24hr snowfall valid noon Christmas to noon Wednesday. It shows 4-6mm of liquid equivalent over the D-FW area. That's about 1/5 of an inch or so, which equates to 1-2" of snow.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/euro00z20.gif

I see a little formation somewhere around the Austin area on that map. Is that the Portadome which will shield the Southwest part of Austin from any winter weather fun which might come in the next few weeks?

I know, it's a lake .... With very little water in it right now.

[iorange55]

And the GFS still can't make up its mind! It seems to be struggling a lot with this storm. It looks like it's a little colder than the 0z run, but it also looks like it drives the storm down south. It looks like Oklahoma would be the only one getting some light snow after the front.

[Portastorm]

And the GFS still can't make up its mind! It seems to be struggling a lot with this storm.

Through 144 hours, today's 12z GFS operational run basically says "no snow for you, Texas."

[iorange55]

And the GFS still can't make up its mind! It seems to be struggling a lot with this storm.

Through 144 hours, today's 12z GFS operational run basically says "no snow for you, Texas."

It's just confused, Porta! Too much eggnog for the ol' GFS. It'll come around once it sobers up a little bit.

[Portastorm]

Yep. I don't think people here should get too worked up over any particular scenario the Euro or GFS paints for us until this weekend's model cycles. Look at them, analyze them, get some entertainment value and then move along to something else.

I know one thing ... I'm getting real tired of these dry frontal passages. If things don't change soon, the fire weather season this winter here in south central Texas will be something awful and I shudder to think about next summer.