ATL: LAURA - Models

[SFLcane]

Seems 06z GFS was an outlier..

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS run is pretty much verbatim of the 00Z run

[cp79]

And poof...just like that TD13 is gone per the GFS Through 84 hours. Hope they’re right.

[HurricaneFrances04]

And poof...just like that TD13 is gone per the GFS Through 84 hours. Hope they’re right.

It's there. Just a weak tropical storm in the Straits.

[SouthFLTropics]

The only thing I can figure is that a stronger TD14 may impose some shear from the outflow which affects 13. Other than that, I've got nothing. This is a very unique setup.

[kevin]

Not saying they're wrong and not meant as a euro/GFS bashing post at all, but if the euro and GFS models are both wrong by underestimating this system (and also TD14 for that matter), it has to be one of the biggest model forecast busts in a while. Just in the hypothetical case that they're wrong, I'm interested what would've been the last time such a big disparity between real life and euro/GFS occured for a tropical storm forecast?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting to note that the GFS is significantly stronger with 14L in the Gulf than it was last run, yet much weaker with 13L. Seems to me 14L might play a greater role in the future intensity of 13L than we thought.

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS into South Florida as a weak system. It also depicts a stronger TD14. Maybe this causes TD13 to be weaker approaching FL??




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[cp79]

The only thing I can figure is that a stronger TD14 may impose some shear from the outflow which affects 13. Other than that, I've got nothing. This is a very unique setup.

I doubt it if the TD is that far out. I could see it shearing it once it gets to around the Keys area. But the GFS wants to
Inhibit it’s development immediately.

[DestinHurricane]

Why would it go poof with favorable conditions? Something just isn't right.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, so much for that 06z run, something is definitely wrong if we went from a 978mb to a 1002mb low in succeeding runs...

[supercane4867]

GFS fell in love with TD14. The outflow of the stronger system could be the reason why it keeps the other one weaker.

[cp79]

GFS similar to ICON. Both strengthen the system once
it gets off Fla west coast and then ride it up.

[SouthFLTropics]

Next up... 12z CMC

[AtlanticWind]

Thats why the NHC doesnt look at just one model and run.
They use the consensus of the models and ensembles.

[SFLcane]

Well, so much for that 06z run, something is definitely wrong if we went from a 978mb to a 1002mb low in succeeding runs...

Likely sensitive to short term.

[Steve]

GFS fell in love with TD14. The outflow of the stronger system could be the reason why it keeps the other one weaker.

There is considerable distance between them. However, if say 14 is moving slow NW/NNW or whatever and 13 is moving in WNW much faster, you could see some interference. I'm not saying 14 will be stronger than 13 as it usually works the other way. But if it's already there and more established with a faster moving system to its east, you'd have to think 14 would be the stronger system.

[toad strangler]

Not buying intensity. This will swing back and forth for the next couple of days. Just a weird set up.

[gatorcane]

There are still dry air issues in the Bahamas if the GFS is right. Conditions are not ideal. Also a stronger TD #14 would impose more shear too if that happens.

One thing I find in these situations from following these storms approaching Florida for years is that if you don't have BOTH the GFS and Euro on board with a hurricane, you typically lean towards the model that is more bearish. You really need both these models showing a hurricane to be concerned.

[ScottNAtlanta]

HWRF and HMON both have majors approaching S FL. That cant be discounted because the environment when this gets to the Bahamas will be just about perfect. That's why I dont buy the globals right now. HWRF doen't take off until this gets just north of Cuba and the has RI. That looks like a plausible scenario to me.
Check out Mark's video that just came out as he makes some good points

https://youtu.be/Ga_dSZzTYyk