ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

To be fair to the Yucatan though lots of people still live in Quintana Roo so our fortune is their misfortune; pretty well equipped to handle a mild hit from what I've seen but definitely not a pleasant day to be in the towns dotted around the tropical forests, the fishing villages, or trekking to one of the Mayan sites.

[gfsperpendicular]

Microwave passes from six hours apart confirm what many are inferring from satellite.

[northjaxpro]

To be fair to the Yucatan though lots of people still live in Quintana Roo so our fortune is their misfortune; pretty well equipped to handle a mild hit from what I've seen but definitely not a pleasant day to be in the towns dotted around the tropical forests, the fishing villages, or trekking to one of the Mayan sites.

Yeah, it has been a tough season for those living in and around the Yucatan for sure. Zeta was I believe their third hurricane to impact them this season, and it still is not over yet, with another potential threat in the Caribbean in the next 7-10 days.

[xironman]

TS watches have been issued well inland, through central Alabama all the way up to the northern border of Georgia.

Seems like a good call. Although sustained winds will more likely than not remain below TS force, some of the model runs are calling for gusts upwards of 50 or even 60 mph, which given our wet soils will be more than enough to bring down trees and cause some power outages.

If the upper low over Texas gets close enough there could be some baroclinic enhancement to keep it going for a while.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey how is all that mis alignment talk going ? and its dying talk?

[Stormgodess]

When’s the next recon?

Around 1:30 tomorrow afternoon (scheduled)

There may be one near 6Z tomorrow morning planned as well if I am not mistaken.

WOW! Thats cutting it close isnt it? So we wont know the actual extent of strengthening until then? Sorry not anything against you or your response. I just find that off putting

[supercane4867]

Moisture envelope has expanded massively due to interaction with Yucatan. Almost covering the entire gulf now.

[ClarCari]

So with H warnings for Mississippi, if this can make it’s 2nd landfall, or even 3rd depending on how it hits LA, it will mean every gulf coast state has been hit by a hurricane this year BUT Florida

[northjaxpro]

When’s the next recon?

Around 1:30 tomorrow afternoon (scheduled)

There may be one near 6Z tomorrow morning planned as well if I am not mistaken.

WOW! Thats cutting it close isnt it? So we wont know the actual extent of strengthening until then? Sorry not anything against you or your response. I just find that off putting

Yeah, I mentioned a few posts back that I accidentally read an old POD from the previous day. They have Recon getting ready to go out now from Biloxi for the short flight down to Zeta. They should be in there sometime around 7:30 this evening.

[supercane4867]

So with H warnings for Mississippi, if this can make it’s 2nd landfall, or even 3rd depending on how it hits LA, it will mean every gulf coast state has been hit by a hurricane this year BUT Florida

Pensacola took a direct hit from the eyewall of Hurricane Sally, however.

[Stormgodess]

Moisture envelope has expanded massively due to interaction with Yucatan. Almost covering the entire gulf now.

https://i.imgur.com/aFkHCMx.jpg

Whatever site that image is from... ITS GORGEOUS! I realize its a Hurricane that I am quietly cursing under my breath... But it is beautiful

[ClarCari]

So with H warnings for Mississippi, if this can make it’s 2nd landfall, or even 3rd depending on how it hits LA, it will mean every gulf coast state has been hit by a hurricane this year BUT Florida

Pensacola took a direct hit from the eyewall of Hurricane Sally, however.

I guess I meant landfall lol.
Have there been other years with a hurricane landfalling in every gulf state in a single year?

[tiger_deF]

Moisture envelope has expanded massively due to interaction with Yucatan. Almost covering the entire gulf now.

https://i.imgur.com/aFkHCMx.jpg

While the Yucatan can certainly be a blessing, this is exactly the reason it may not be the boon it seems to be. Looking at Hispaniola and Cuba (aside from a few exceptions, looking at you Laura), very short interactions with large mountains can be devastating for cyclones, tearing them apart by completely disrupting areas of their circulation. The wide, flat area of the Yucatan, while it certainly weakens cyclones, steadily disperses the energy involved in the cyclone while often keeping the structure intact, resulting in a larger storm system, and when conditions allow for re-intensification the area of effect and storm surge can be significantly larger than it would be otherwise.

[northjaxpro]

So with H warnings for Mississippi, if this can make it’s 2nd landfall, or even 3rd depending on how it hits LA, it will mean every gulf coast state has been hit by a hurricane this year BUT Florida

Pensacola took a direct hit from the eyewall of Hurricane Sally, however.

Yes, no doubt Pensacola was impacted by portion of the eyewall, but the official landfall of Sally occured just west of there near Gulf Shores, AL.

[LARanger]

So with H warnings for Mississippi, if this can make it’s 2nd landfall, or even 3rd depending on how it hits LA, it will mean every gulf coast state has been hit by a hurricane this year BUT Florida

That's so 2020.

[Ubuntwo]

So with H warnings for Mississippi, if this can make it’s 2nd landfall, or even 3rd depending on how it hits LA, it will mean every gulf coast state has been hit by a hurricane this year BUT Florida

Pensacola took a direct hit from the eyewall of Hurricane Sally, however.

Yeah, Sally is in the books as FL2 (cat 2 winds produced in Florida), so technically a hit.

[Iceresistance]

AF309 Mission #14 into ZETA
Status: En Route

[cp79]

Zeta definitely not looking the most impressive storm tonight from a strength perspective. Size, though, it is quite big.

[aspen]

Moisture envelope has expanded massively due to interaction with Yucatan. Almost covering the entire gulf now.

https://i.imgur.com/aFkHCMx.jpg

With such a nice pocket of moisture and UL winds while it remains over 27.5-28C SSTs for the next 18 or so hours, I wonder how strong this could get before shear finally becomes an issue again.

[xironman]

Hey how is all that mis alignment talk going ? and its dying talk?

Yes, it was mis-aligned north to south. But it has improved its structure quite a bit. Lets see how it goes forward.