ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LAwxrgal]

Ugh.

Hate this.

"I" storm. In the Gulf. In August. Gives me the heebie jeebies.

As a survivor of another 'I' storm in the Gulf in August (Ida), I urge everyone in the possible path of this thing to get ready NOW. Have your plan NOW. If you're going to leave, do so as soon as possible. If you're going to stay, get your supplies before the rush.

[Jr0d]

Whoa, the orange barbs are out in full force....

https://i.imgur.com/uAVjFZF.png

That large area red red and pink with S to SW winds is concerning as a strong SW and SE quadrant, with a large area of strong S to SW winds will make surge more of an issue. Hopefully the relatively short time over the gulf will limit the surge potential.

[Michele B]

I would expect tampa to wait till 11am advisory, it's still not north of cuba. 11AM at the earliest, waiting till 5pm would be rough, since nothing is changing. But, i think that's the plan. i don't have local tv . so i dunno what they saying here in tampa I'm north of tampa anyway

This is tough. I think we can admit the models have not been extremely accurate this year.

While the current model consensus shows Idalia far enough north of Tampa to potentially limit surge, it will not take much of a wobble to change this drastically.

Hopefully the storm will move relatively quickly and not surprise us with a slower than expected speed as it approaches, making surge worse.

While major hurricane winds are serious, the major concern here is massive flooding of Tampa Bay. After a close call with Ian, I just hope many at risk have not become complacent.

How do you figure this track will "limit surge..." since the storm is forecast to be almost parallel to Tampa almost at its strongest, meaning it will be sending ON SHORE winds/water into the bay?

I think the opposite. I think this storm's WORST possible scenario is if this thing ramps up like they say it's going to and then breezes past Tampa at a full capacity with lots of wind and water being pushed into Tampa Bay.

Local mets AND newscasters should be sounding this alarm and having folks hear them and start moving (those that can) NOW. That way, when a mandatory call comes, those without means can be picked up easily (less traffic) and moved inland without gridlock without ALL the population moving at once.

[GCANE]

Big warm-core signature on IR

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1696127155946885269

[GCANE]

CDO has those radial fingers and gravity waves.
It is punching thru the tropopause.
Game changer, now all the UL conditions forecast in the GoM will not hinder but enhance intensification.

[Jr0d]

I would expect tampa to wait till 11am advisory, it's still not north of cuba. 11AM at the earliest, waiting till 5pm would be rough, since nothing is changing. But, i think that's the plan. i don't have local tv . so i dunno what they saying here in tampa I'm north of tampa anyway

This is tough. I think we can admit the models have not been extremely accurate this year.

While the current model consensus shows Idalia far enough north of Tampa to potentially limit surge, it will not take much of a wobble to change this drastically.

Hopefully the storm will move relatively quickly and not surprise us with a slower than expected speed as it approaches, making surge worse.

While major hurricane winds are serious, the major concern here is massive flooding of Tampa Bay. After a close call with Ian, I just hope many at risk have not become complacent.

How do you figure this track will "limit surge..." since the storm is forecast to be almost parallel to Tampa almost at its strongest, meaning it will be sending ON SHORE winds/water into the bay?

I think the opposite. I think this storm's WORST possible scenario is if this thing ramps up like they say it's going to and then breezes past Tampa at a full capacity with lots of wind and water being pushed into Tampa Bay.

Local mets AND newscasters should be sounding this alarm and having folks hear them and start moving (those that can) NOW. That way, when a mandatory call comes, those without means can be picked up easily (less traffic) and moved inland without gridlock without ALL the population moving at once.

I keep saying I think it will be to Right of the forecast which is not good for Tampa Bay....last night I Said a landfall south of Tampa(increasingly unlikely) would be best as the wind would blow water out of Tampa Bay.

However, the current forecast keeps hurricane winds from directly hitting Tampa Bay, which would cause significantly less surge than the worst case scenario.

Currently the surge forecast is 4' to 7', higher than any surge event I can remember in Tampa Bay.

A few wobbles east and that surge potential is over 10', going from serious to potentially catastrophic.

Based on this evacuations need to happen today in the Bay area.

[sponger]

One thing is for sure, Florida's insurance crisis is about to get far worse. Just plow into Saint Marks and we can manage the impact. We may also get to find out how Florida's vulnerable solar farms hold up.

https://solarnow.fpl.com/locations/

[xironman]

Clouds are warming in that big southern ball of convection. Should help become more symmetrical.

[CronkPSU]

I am the department chair of social studies at my high school in Polk County and I sent out an email to my department with some tips for prepping your room for a hurricane and I got two replies, there is a storm coming?

Soooo yeah not a lot of people taking it seriously

[Michele B]

https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1696127155946885269?s=20


https://i.imgur.com/Ior7hbM.png

Just snapped this off the Teevee and local Tampa news.

https://signsarcadia.imgur.com/all/?third_party=1

Note days and times of approach.

[Jr0d]

I am the department chair of social studies at my high school in Polk County and I sent out an email to my department with some tips for prepping your room for a hurricane and I got two replies, there is a storm coming?

Soooo yeah not a lot of people taking it seriously

I am sure you are well aware of of what P.O.L.K. stands for. At least you all are inland and dont have to worry about surge. Isolated tornadoes however are common across Florida with landfalling storms.

It does seem like storms moving NE from the Gulf to Atlantic spawn more tornadoes than an Atlantic to Guld westerly moving storm.

I imagine those in the Tampa Bay/St Pete area are well aware of the storm. I would hope school and non essential government work will be cancelled for Tuesday and Wednesday in the areas under a hurricane watch.

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1696127155946885269?s=20


https://i.imgur.com/Ior7hbM.png

Just snapped this off the Teevee and local Tampa news.

https://signsarcadia.imgur.com/all/?third_party=1

Note days and times of approach.

Bad link Michele, need to open the image and grab one of the sharing links, not the link for the page you are on.

[Michele B]

https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1696127155946885269?s=20


https://i.imgur.com/Ior7hbM.png

Just snapped this off the Teevee and local Tampa news.

https://signsarcadia.imgur.com/all/?third_party=1

Note days and times of approach.

Bad link Michele, need to open the image and grab one of the sharing links, not the link for the page you are on.

I do not know how to do this. I tried to c/p from my files, I tried using IMGUR to upload.... (which I do not do), so I'm lost.
I think I figured it out.

https://imgur.com/NpzefqU https://imgur.com/v2GWfwL

edit:

[cheezyWXguy]

68 FL is enough to support 61 kt at the surface -> 65 kt based on undersampling. SFMR isn't at the same level yet so they might keep it at 60 kt, but Idalia is on its way to become a hurricane (if it isn't one already).

One thing to watch for today is how the windfield evolves. Right now, Idalia is very lopsided, with virtually all ts winds on the east side. If it can symmetrize its windfield, it will be all systems go for faster intensification. However, if it doesn’t, that will hold a lid on it for longer. This was a big sticking point for Ian while south of Cuba until the last few hours before landfall when it blew up.

Following up on this, Idalia is making progress. Recon finding 55kt FL winds in the SW, SE, and NE quadrants this morning, compared to just SE, and barely in the NE last night. NW quadrant obviously still needs the most work, and still a ways to go in general, but this does suggest improvement in its structure.

[FLLurker32]

https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1696127155946885269?s=20


https://i.imgur.com/Ior7hbM.png

A slight wobble, common with high intensity storms, could change so much with impact here. Crazy.

[sponger]

Euro ensembles seem to be locking on to Cedar Key with a North Florida exit. I think the NHC track will be nudged South at 11 to account for that and the UKMET agreement. Western Jacksonville is full of trees that have not been hammered since Irma so it will be a mess for days if that verifies. Bad timing for Tampa with the astronomical high tide at 4 am Wed morning. May they yet again miss the worse that the storm has to offer.

[GCANE]

Current aerial feed looks to be coming out of the BoC across the Yucatan.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

Once in the mid GoM that will change and the big aerial feed will be from the Carib that has extreme high CAPE values forecasted.
At that point the feed of energy from the water will be from the Loop Current.

A nearly limitless supply of energy.

[chris_fit]

Euro ensembles seem to be locking into Cedar Key with a North Florida exit. I think the NHC track will be nudged South at 11 to account for that and the UKMET agreement. Western Jacksonville is full of trees that have not been hammered since Irma so it will be a mess for days if that verifies. Bad timing for Tampa with the astronomical high tide at 4 am Wed morning.

Doubtful - TVCN actually shifted slightly W - they stuck with that. NHC Forecast is currently the E outlier.

[CronkPSU]

Current aerial feed looks to be coming out of the BoC across the Yucatan.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

Once in the mid GoM that will change and the big aerial feed will be from the Carib that has extreme high CAPE values forecasted.
At that point the feed of energy from the water will be from the Loop Current.

A nearly limitless supply of energy.

obviously huge difference in intensity but didn't realize how similar the two storms were in size