Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

Uh, can I have my 80s back?

Probably won’t see those again till March. Maybe Friday afternoon you’ll have one last chance.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles really got that classic arctic outbreak look tonight, that is about as favorable of a - EPO position that i have seen in a while , trough centered over the western and central plains, while we just need enough cold air for a system to take advantage of, the look tonight looks more like a massive dump of cold arctic air

Yeah the ensembles are lining up now, which means we can start putting some belief beyond 200+ hours from OPs. Teleconnections coming together by mid month. Very excited now about what may come together.

Now we await for orangeblood to join the party.

[WacoWx]

Is that snow south of Stephenville?

[gpsnowman]

Is that snow south of Stephenville?

It sure is. Midland has a rain/snow mix currently.

[HockeyTx82]

Is that snow south of Stephenville?

It sure is. Midland has a rain/snow mix currently.

So can we all step back from thr brink now? It's snowing in Texas......

[Lagreeneyes03]

Ensembles continue to look even better, more stout - EPO signal, and a very favorable trough position on the GEFS/ GEPS if you want winter fun across the state, long ways to go, but cant deny that things are looking pretty good mid january and beyond

I'll take it. My office will be calling us back in to our 3x a month come mid January/post holiday and any bad weather is an excuse not to go haha

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

After a chilly Monday and early Tuesday, a warming trend will
begin and continue into the weekend as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds from Mexico into the Rockies, while flow
aloft gradually becomes more zonal. Highs look to warm from the
50s on Tuesday the 60s by Wednesday, 70s by Thursday, and even
some 80s in Central Texas by Friday. A weak front shown by 00Z
global models may knock temperatures down somewhat for the
weekend, but it will still be well above-normal with highs in the
60s/70s. Unfortunately, no precipitation is anticipated this week
or for the foreseeable future as we continue in a very long
stretch without significant rainfall.

[Stratton23]

It looks like the blocking pattern may try to become established just a tad bit sooner in january, , already by day 9-10 on the GFS/CMC we see the - EPO setting up shop over alaska , when you see things like this moving up in time on models, it definitely gives higher confidence that this pattern is going to happen

[Sambucol2024]

It looks like the blocking pattern may try to become established just a tad bit sooner in january, , already by day 9-10 on the GFS/CMC we see the - EPO setting up shop over alaska , when you see things like this moving up in time on models, it definitely gives higher confidence that this pattern is going to happen

If this all verifies, what are the possible temps we would possibly be looking at in the Houston area?

[Ntxw]

The slight difference is the EPS favors an eastern trough, the GEFS favors a western trough and GEPS right in the middle where we are. Of course day 10+. Seasonal trends favor EPS, personally rooting for the Canadian bunch.

There is not a lot of modern analogs for the upcoming pattern, it will be a fairly tough forecast.

[txtwister78]

On the subject of analogs and the pattern that could be on the way mid month and beyond...CFS bringing it!

 https://x.com/i/status/2005728481448190398

[wxman57]

Lost power in SW Houston around 3am with wind gusts 40-45 mph. Never even noticed. Generator kicked on within 5 seconds. The only reason I knew was that some of the digital clocks were blinking (oven, microwave). Looking forward to temps near 80 on Friday.

I like this CFS graphic for Jan-March temps. Above normal all across Texas!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2025122906/cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_us_1.png

[Stratton23]

That. CFS run is a thing of beauty, unleash the arctic hounds!

[wxman57]

That. CFS run is a thing of beauty, unleash the arctic hounds!

CFS weekly forecasts indicate above normal temps across much of the U.S. west of the Mississippi in Jan/Feb:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2025122906&fh=840

[Stratton23]

wxman57 i meant the analog map above lol

[DukeMu]

Had some sleet mixed with light rain in College Station. I was out fixing Christmas lawn decorations after the 35 mph wind gusts early this morning. Let's get that column of precip going! Cool this mutha down.

At least the 80°F on Friday won't be accompanied by DPs near 70°F. We already have a month for that weather - May!

[DukeMu]

The models are approaching concurrence with another cold snap as we approach mid-month - how long it lasts in a Texas La Nina winter is another question.

[txwxwatcher]

[Youtube][/Youtube]

The models are approaching concurrence with another cold snap as we approach mid-month - how long it lasts in a Texas La Nina winter is another question.

It’s getting old. Would like to have just one winter that isn’t influenced by La Niña or El Niño.

[txtwister78]

The models are approaching concurrence with another cold snap as we approach mid-month - how long it lasts in a Texas La Nina winter is another question.

All it takes is one or two events though. 2020/2021 was pretty warm overall but of course we all remember that one week period in February.

Some of our biggest winters in terms of snow and cold have come during La Nina winters despite them primarily being dry/warmer overall as is typical during most. 84/85 was another example of that and I mentioned the other day what happened Jan 85 in Texas particularly SC TX.

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, those CFS weeklies are awful.

No cold virtually anywhere. But it’s often wrong. I think it predicted a cold December.

If the EPS says the ridge will be on the east coast, Lucy may take the football again.

If it happens again, then….