MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150634Z - 150830Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH SWRN VA NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES OVER SWRN VA
   NEAR TIMBERLAKE. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ESEWD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
   FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND A MODEST CAP. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   SHOW WIND GUSTS AROUND 31 KT ALONG THE GUST FRONT. GUST FRONT
   CONVERGENCE AND THE MODEST CAP SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS UNDERGONE SOME
   STABILIZATION AND COOLING...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL
   LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
   MUCAPE SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.
   INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC MAY ALSO
   ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
   
   37947906 37517802 36927827 36757915 37638006

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...SRN NJ...DELMARVA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151659Z - 151800Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SERN PA...SRN NJ...AND THE DELMARVA REGION INTO THE
   AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO.
   
   ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR COLD
   FRONT/LEE-TROUGH INTERSECTION NOW OVER SERN PA. AIR MASS AHEAD OF
   THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
   DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM ERN/NRN VA
   TO SRN NJ. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF HEATING SHOULD EFFECTIVELY
   ELIMINATE REMAINING INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM
   INITIATION ACROSS THE REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
   APPEAR POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STORMS FORMING AND MERGING AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT AND LEE-TROUGH COULD EVOLVE INTO FAST MOVING SMALL SCALE
   LINE SEGMENTS WITH SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
   ACTIVITY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO TO COVER PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
   
   40287565 40257461 39707424 37877536 36947597 36727688
   36927768 37327878 37907901 39337731 39887678

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151814Z - 151945Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED
   NATURE...A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   ARC OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
   SD...LIKELY TIED TO INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA
   DRYSLOT/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   CYCLONE. 17Z RUC/09Z NAMKF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE WILL GENERALLY
   REMAIN AT 300-500 J/KG OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SD. GIVEN THE
   ELEVATED NATURE OF BUOYANCY...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   HAZARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN
   SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL/ISOLATED GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/CLOUD
   BEARING SHEARING SUCH THAT A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
   
   43230242 44080258 44760155 44709833 43429766 43169945
   43150077

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER OH VALLEY EAST TO SRN NJ/DELMARVA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151842Z - 151945Z
   
   AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...FROM SERN OH...
   ACROSS WV...TO DELMARVA AND SRN NJ...ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT
   TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
   SLOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.
   
   WAVE CLOUDS OVER AND DOWNWIND FROM THE APPALACHIAN CREST APPEAR TO
   BE SLOWLY ERODING AS DEEPER MIXING/HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
   REGION AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER WAS MOST
   UNSTABLE ACROSS NRN/ERN VA INTO MD ATTM AND STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER
   THIS AREA WHERE LEE-TROUGH/FRONT CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER WEST...LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
   AND RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION.
   PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE LACK OF GREATER LARGE SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THIS COULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. IF
   AN AREA OF GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL BECOMES CLEARER IN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO...A WATCH IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING/EVOLVING
   CONVECTION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
   
   38338039 38558253 39108304 39348192 39767974 39697725
   39837517 39757439 38777481 38237539 38137602 38047797

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
   KS/EASTERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151908Z - 152115Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
   CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB INTO EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KS/EASTERN NEB
   THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY BY 20-21Z.
   
   CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEB
   WITHIN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW NEAR NORTH
   PLATTE NEB AND IN VICINITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE
   POINT. GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION/WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION AND
   INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL
   NEB...INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...ATTRIBUTABLE TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER. SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST GIVEN AMBIENT VERTICAL
   VORTICITY/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN OTHERWISE MARGINAL
   MOISTURE /UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   41050041 41210144 42610157 42709844 42229754 40239689
   39999795 40819917

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152048Z - 152215Z
   
   MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO OK. A
   WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...NAMELY ACROSS EASTERN
   KS INTO WESTERN MO.
   
   MID LEVEL CONVECTION ABOVE WELL CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER -- REFERENCE
   SPECIAL 18Z RAOBS FROM TOPEKA KS/SPRINGFIELD MO -- HAS PERSISTED
   MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KS...WITH RELATIVELY NEWER MID
   LEVEL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST KS IN AREAS NORTH/WEST OF TULSA.
   WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A HAIL THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES ENE
   INTO MO...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT/SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY
   DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS...CURRENTLY
   FROM NEAR CONCORDIA-SALINA TO WICHITA...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTH
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK. BOUNDARY LAYER CU HAS EVOLVED OVER THE PAST
   HALF HOUR INVOF THE DRYLINE. WHILE LIKLIHOOD/EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED
   CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR...STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE MAY LEAD TO
   INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/AMPLE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP
   EASTWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   39169705 39529616 39829434 39379332 37409354 36579502
   36419683 37369744

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK/FAR NORTH CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152148Z - 152315Z
   
   MONITORING FOR HIGHLY CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
   CENTRAL OK INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   MONITORING EVOLUTION OF POCKETS OF HIGH BASED BOUNDARY LAYER CU IN
   VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. LATEST
   ANALYSIS/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FEATURES STRONG MIXING/WEAKENING
   SURFACE BASED CINH -- WITH TEMPERATURES OVER 100F IN SOUTHWEST OK --
   AND AMPLE MASS CONVERGENCE INVOF DRYLINE FROM WEST OF THE OKC METRO
   AREA TO NEAR DUNCAN OK AND EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TX. IN THIS
   CORRIDOR...VIA DEEP MIXING/GLANCING UPPER SUPPORT...SOME POTENTIAL
   EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL OK/NORTH CENTRAL TX. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL
   WOULD EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   35909754 36239665 35749615 34009656 33429750 33949844

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AND NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN
   IA/NORTHWEST MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190...
   
   VALID 152200Z - 152330Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 190 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AND
   NORTHEAST KS. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR
   WESTERN IA AND NORTHWEST MO.
   
   AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE
   HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AND
   NORTHEAST KS...FOCUSED INVOF DRYLINE AND OCCLUSION/WARM FRONT TRIPLE
   POINT. TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN GAGE COUNTY NEB. IN
   PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR...STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING INTO WESTERN
   IA/NORTHWEST MO...WITH STORMS POTENTIALLY BREACHING THE EASTERN
   EXTENT OF TORNADO WATCH 190 BY AROUND 23Z. FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS
   NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
   
   42459827 42569653 42419426 41389305 39839303 39219392
   39309571 40189639 41279710 41809867

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WV...VA...MD...DE...DC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189...191...
   
   VALID 152259Z - 160030Z
   
   PRONOUNCED SUPERCELL WITH REFLECTIVITY HOOK HAS MOVED SEWD OFFSHORE
   CAPE CHARLES REGION AND OVER ATLANTIC. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE EVIDENT FROM SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA SWD ALONG COASTAL
   FRONT INTO EXTREME NERN NC...W OF WHICH SFC FLOW IS WLY.  SFC
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT SFC DRYING/VEERING FROM
   SERN PA SWWD ACROSS SRN WV.  AIR MASS IN BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES
   REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY
   IN 50S F...EXCEPT ACROSS SRN WV WHERE MIXING HAS YIELDED 40S F
   VALUES.  LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVERGENCE IN THIS AIR MASS WILL
   CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...THOUGH ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS
   SUCH AS THOSE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY VA MAY
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL FROM THERE ACROSS SRN
   CHESAPEAKE BAY TO PORTIONS SRN ACCOMACK/NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES.
   
   VIS IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY TRENDS INDICATE SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
   HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS WV...EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
   WRN/CENTRAL/NRN VA...EWD TO CENTRAL/NRN DELMARVA REGION.  OVERALL
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING
   NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING SBCINH.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
   
   38097978 38357952 38467927 38587744 38477584 38347518
   38177480 37727504 37097542 36557552 36487599 36577867
   37727859

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0518
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EASTERN NEB AND NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN
   IA/NORTHWEST MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190...192...
   
   VALID 152317Z - 160045Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 190 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...TORNADO
   WATCH 192 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z.
   
   ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES
   ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 190/192 THIS EVENING FROM
   NORTHERN/EASTERN NEB AND NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN IA/NORTHWEST MO.
   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED EARLIER NEAR
   BEATRICE NEB.
   
   WITHIN THESE TORNADO WATCHES...RELATIVELY GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING APPEARS TO BE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR
   NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST IA AND NORTHWEST MO...INCLUDING AREAS
   FROM TOPEKA KS-ST JOSEPH MO-MARYVILLE MO TO RED OAK/CRESTON IA. IN
   THIS CORRIDOR...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING AND LIKELY TO
   PERSIST IN RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT INVOF DRYLINE AND WARM
   FRONT/OCCLUSION. THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   60S/SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20 F.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...LBF...
   
   42689901 42569653 42119481 41249313 39839303 39219392
   38529576 39989591 41399685 42049893

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHWEST IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152341Z - 160115Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TORNADO WATCHES 190/192.
   
   ARC OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
   HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL...EXTENDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEB TO ALONG
   THE NEB/IA BORDER AS OF 2340Z. AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS FURTHER
   EAST/NORTHEAST...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO FAR
   SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHWEST IA THIS EVENING. WITH WARM SECTOR/RICHER
   THETA-E REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...PRIMARY SEVERE
   HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE...MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING
   ACROSS NORTHWEST IA.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...
   
   43229733 43629730 43659624 43289332 42399331 42309464
   42379615 42509665

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0914 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...NWRN MO...WRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 192...
   
   VALID 160214Z - 160345Z
   
   BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM MKC AREA NNEWD TO SW OF DSM
   INCLUDED AT LEAST TWO POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS OF 2Z -- IN
   N-CENTRAL/NERN PORTIONS KC METRO AND DEKALB/DAVIESS COUNTY MO. ALL
   MODES OF SEVERE REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM THIS BAND AS IT MOVES ENEWD
   ACROSS NWRN MO AND S-CENTRAL IA NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  MEANWHILE SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER PORTIONS E-CENTRAL KS AND W-CENTRAL MO
   S OF WW 192 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE LAYER PARCELS
   -- IN INFLOW REGION OF NWRN MO CONVECTION -- MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ELEVATED ABOVE SFC THROUGH ABOUT 4Z...INDICATING GRADUAL DECREASE IN
   TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL.  MEANWHILE...LARGE LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 600 J/KG AND MLCAPES
   1000-1500 J/KG IN PROFILER/VWP DATA AND MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS.
   
   FARTHER SW...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MERGED WITH
   DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS ERN KS -- FROM LWC AREA SWWD ACROSS COWLEY
   COUNTY.  THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE/PROPAGATE SWWD ALONG DRYLINE
   INTO S-CENTRAL KS AND N-CENTRAL OK.  CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
   COMBINED BOUNDARY FROM LWC TO GREENWOOD COUNTY KS...IN ZONE OF
   MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL/DRYLINE
   ASCENT.  STRONG CINH IS EVIDENT ACROSS NRN OK...SO EVEN WITH FRONTAL
   LIFT...BACKBUILDING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO N OF KS/OK BORDER.
   DEEP-LAYER WIND AND SHEAR VECTORS HAVE SIGNIFICANT COMPONENT
   PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED LINEAR MODE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   37739608 38259548 38999491 39409419 39879392 40269383
   40699392 41269415 41909489 42209441 42149350 41209257
   40319232 39489228 38929285 38129401 37779547

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1046 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN IA...NERN MO...EXTREME NWRN
   IL.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 160346Z - 160545Z
   
   BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS NOW OVER ERN-MOST PORTIONS WW 192 IS
   EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TO AREA BETWEEN CID-UIN THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
   7Z.  MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL TRANSITION TO HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL
   STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER MO.  AREA WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME ACROSS THIS AREA
   AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX APCHS...ASSOCIATED WITH NEARLY
   VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER ERN NEB.  HOWEVER...GIVEN DECELERATION
   OF THAT CYCLONE AND FCST MOTION OF MAIN BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
   FORCING...PRIND ACTIVITY WILL OUTRUN EWD SPREAD OF OPTIMAL
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS WELL.  INFLOW PARCELS ARE FCST TO BECOME MORE
   ELEVATED OFF SFC WITH TIME AND WITH NWD EXTENT...GIVEN COMBINATION
   OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND PRECIP COOLING OVER IA.  PARCELS MAY
   REMAIN NEARLY SFC-BASED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS NERN
   MO...WHERE BOTH MUCAPE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
   EFFECTIVE SHEARS 35-50 KT ARE EVIDENT IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS BOTH FOR
   CONVECTION ROOTED IN 800-900 MB LAYER OVER IA...AND ANYWHERE BETWEEN
   SFC-850 MB ACROSS NERN MO.  MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
   
   39289238 39849236 40049231 40539233 40749256 41079272
   41529289 42019304 42869341 43339222 43239153 42539058
   41929022 40909043 40489075 39419178 39249222

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN MO AND CENTRAL/SRN IA.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 192...
   
   VALID 160439Z - 160545Z
   
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY...AND ACCORDINGLY SEVERE
   POTENTIAL...IS DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY IN WW.  REMAINDER WW MAY BE
   CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 5Z EXPIRATION OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT
   TIME.  ACTIVITY STILL IN ERN-MOST COUNTIES OF WW NEAR IRK -- ALONG
   TAIL END OF MCS -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS NERN MO AND SERN
   IA WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.  REF SPC
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 520 FOR DETAILED DISCUSSION ON AREA E OF WW.
   
   MEANWHILE...INITIAL LINE OF FRONTALLY FORCED TSTMS OVER SERN KS
   MOSTLY HAS WEAKENED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM LOCATED OVER
   VERNON COUNTY MO...AS OF 415Z. THIS TSTM HAS DISPLAYED INTERMITTENT
   SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND PRODUCED HAIL ESTIMATED UP TO 1.75
   INCH DIAMETER...IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  50-60 KT
   LLJ CONTRIBUTES TO 0-3 KM SRH EXCEEDING 700 J/KG OVER NARROW
   CORRIDOR AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND.  EFFECTIVE SHEARS BASED ON RUC
   SOUNDINGS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON STRONG
   SBCINH...ALTHOUGH SLGT MODIFICATIONS RESULT IN LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED
   NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SFC.  CINH SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE...BUT SRN/CENTRAL MO AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   37629456 38199386 38769341 39419286 40359221 40129083
   37879094

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0715 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IL...WRN KY AND SRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161215Z - 161415Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WRN KY FROM EXTREME SERN IL MAY CONTINUE
   TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS. THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM EXTREME SRN IL INTO
   WRN KY AND SPREADING EWD. STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND ROOTED NEAR 700 MB
   BASED ON RUC SOUNDING DATA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
   C/KM AND EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION
   WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...MODEST MUCAPE
   AOB 800 J/KG SUGGESTS OVERALL HAIL SIZE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 1
   INCH OR LESS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WSWLY LOW LEVEL
   JET AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THROUGH WRN KY AND INTO
   SRN IL NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ACTIVITY IS SUBSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN
   A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES LATER THIS
   MORNING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
   
   36588898 37478899 38888697 38138575 36638738

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1057 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA....SRN WI...NWRN IL...NERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161557Z - 161800Z
   
   THREAT FOR HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASING ACROSS NERN
   IA...SWRN WI...AND PARTS OF NWRN IL LATE THIS MORNING. AREAS FROM
   SCNTRL/SERN IA...EAST/SOUTHEAST TO NERN MO/WRN IL MAY SEE AN
   INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHES ARE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THESE AREAS...PROBABLY WITHIN 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ARC OF CONVECTION WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER
   CYCLONE OVER IA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING TO THE
   NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE LOW WHERE STRONGER
   DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING
   TO OVERSPREAD LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN LAPSE RATES
   EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND DVN...EXPECT THESE STORMS
   TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL.
   
   WHILE THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WAS LIKELY
   ROOTED ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ROOT
   INTO MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR SFC LOW...AND
   ESEWD FROM THE SFC LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND AHEAD OF WIND
   SHIFT/CONFLUENCE LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS NERN MO. DEEP LAYER
   VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND
   STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
   SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS GREATER WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
   INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND AN INCREASING
   CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES...SUGGEST WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED
   OVER PARTS OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
   
   40418903 40088919 39618979 39189043 38899092 38769157
   38779239 39579231 40229269 40589308 40819363 41319379
   41949377 42359353 43139284 43339243 43529131 43649024
   43198864 42708843 41958854 40888894

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IL INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161808Z - 161945Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY BY 19Z-20Z ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO
   CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS MAY INCLUDE AN UPGRADE OF THE
   NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 194.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
   ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/SE
   ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...LARGELY PARALLEL WITH THE
   INTERSTATE 74 CORRIDOR. MODERATELY AGGRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION
   CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN PRESENCE OF AMPLE INSOLATION...WITH
   PROGRESSIVELY ACTIVE CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY NOTED IN BOTH SOUTH
   CENTRAL IL AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS TIME.
   ACCORDINGLY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
   NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED CINH FROM CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL
   INDIANA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN THE AMBIENT WARM
   SECTOR.
   
   MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD
   OUT OF WESTERN IL INTO EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR SOMEWHAT
   SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
   EITHER WAY...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES WILL STEADILY INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN CORRIDOR ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT
   FROM EAST CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WHERE
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TEND TO REMAIN BACKED WITH SUFFICIENTLY
   CURVED/ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   41328829 41288645 40498518 39348489 38808620 38998790
   40078855

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193...
   
   VALID 161818Z - 161915Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   INSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 193 OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES OCCLUDED LOW OVER SCNTRL IA WITH WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING EAST INTO NRN IL AND WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
   EAST INTO WRN IL. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
   DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WAS ACTING ON DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS
   FROM SERN IA ACROSS CNTRL IL AND SUPPORTING INCREASING TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT ACROSS IL
   PORTIONS OF THE WATCH IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   EXPECT STORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL IL TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS
   SHORTLY. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
   CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS NEAR OR CROSSING THE WARM FRONT...FROM
   GBG TO PIA...WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND
   POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT GIVEN EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES 150-200
   MS/S2 BASED ON CELL WSW MOTION AT 25KT.
   
   STORMS NEAR THE LOW AND EAST TO DVN AREA WERE DEVELOPING IN A WEAKER
   SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEAKER FLOW NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THIS IS
   FURTHER SUPPORTED BY LATEST DVN SOUNDING. HOWEVER...DVN SOUNDING
   ALSO DEPICTS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CAPE FOR MODEST UPDRAFT
   STRETCHING. GIVEN STRONG BACKGROUND VORTICITY IN VICINITY OF THE
   LOW...A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD ACQUIRE ROTATION AND POSE A HAIL
   AND BRIEF TORNADO THREAT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
   
   42609347 42629064 40488850 38418828 38169132 40539246
   40569349 42149407 42189356

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV...WRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 162010Z - 162145Z
   
   A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WV AND WRN VA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANTICIPATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
   IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR
   GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH IN THIS AREA.
   
   ISOLATED STORMS HAVE INITIATED NEAR STATIONARY FRONT CROSSING THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS FROM WRN VA INTO SERN WV. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
   ACTIVITY WAS BEING AIDED BY APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH...UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED
   STORMS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
   HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND DIURNAL NATURE
   OF THE INSTABILITY...WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN LATEST
   GUIDANCE THAT STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
   LATER THIS EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE OH
   VALLEY. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED AT PRESENT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...
   
   37107906 37028122 37288184 37598172 37778072 37877931
   37687898

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY/SOUTHWEST
   INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 162024Z - 162230Z
   
   CLOSELY MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
   MO/SOUTHERN IL INTO WESTERN KY/SOUTHWEST INDIANA FOR POSSIBILITY OF
   A WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TORNADO WATCH 193...MODERATE CU FIELD
   EXISTS INVOF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHWEST
   IL...NAMELY FROM THE ST LOUIS METRO TO NEAR FARMINGTON MO AND POPLAR
   BLUFF MO. GIVEN RELATIVELY MORE MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE WITH
   SOUTHWARD EXTENT IN WARM SECTOR...LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION IS QUESTIONABLE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH. WHILE
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE RATHER SCANT WITH
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION EXISTS PER RUC SOUNDINGS...WITH REGION BEING BRUSHED BY
   IA CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS MLCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG AND STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD FAVOR A SUPERCELL AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT
   GIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LSX...SGF...
   
   38329094 38398830 38528634 37448582 36908687 36698847
   36748927 36849060 36969127 37519153