TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Blown Away]

I agree with Derek. I don't see how this center can be at 13.5N and 45.5W. Its further west and south. Whether that will be meaningful trackwise at the end of the day is another story. Derek what is your thinking right now with respect to the future behavior of the high?

Can someone please advise the distance in miles between tenth of degrees? ..Thanks!

To clarify the question, the distance between say 13.5 and 13.6

6 miles per tenth, 60 miles per degree
I think.

[Derek Ortt]

The Aqua pass does show the center a little east fo where some of the sat fixs are placing it, though I'd have to go with 45.1W.

I am waiting for the next pass though to clear up the confusion, or the next QS

As for the question if I am still going with my previous track, this depression is south of that forecast and possibly a little faster. I do not see a reason to change. latest UKMET may be encouraging for Sfla if this is close enough to the east coast to respond to the mid level trough

[Derek Ortt]

60NM in a dgree of latitude

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The Aqua pass does show the center a little east fo where some of the sat fixs are placing it, though I'd have to go with 45.1W.

I am waiting for the next pass though to clear up the confusion, or the next QS

As for the question if I am still going with my previous track, this depression is south of that forecast and possibly a little faster. I do not see a reason to change. latest UKMET may be encouraging for Sfla if this is close enough to the east coast to respond to the mid level trough

So, in contrast with the NHC, you suggest a threat for the islands?...Ill keep closely watching it...

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I think the LLC is relocating under the convection. The diurnal maximum will likely accomplish this job within the next few hours, especially because of some previous data that indicates a possible tropical storm. This system is organizing, so I would not be surprised if the center is WSW of Brown's estimates at the TPC. My guess is 13.1N and 45.7W (matches Jan's coordinates). If another forecaster compiled the 5 p.m. EDT package, this system probably would be TS Ingrid with a position closer to the coordinates mentioned by x-y-no and Derek.

Proof:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Last QuikSCAT pass:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

This pass is quite old (~18 hours ago), and the forward motion (faster than indicated by some model guidance) has taken the center west of 45W. Additionally, TD 8 has become much better organized, and the low-level swirl near Brown's position is probably nonexistant at the time. There is some easterly shear, so I suspect a new LLC is forming further west (on par with x-y-no and Derek). Additionally, I really think most forecasters would have classified TD 8 as Ingrid at 5 p.m. EDT; I disagree with Brown's decision, although I think he makes good decisions under other circumstances. Currently, I see a motion slightly N of due W (assuming my coordinates are correct).

I think the intensity will be underestimated over the short term. Currently, banding is becoming much more impressive, and convection is expanding over the possible new LLC. Click here for shortwave imagery. This is another reason for my belief that we have Ingrid. Some decent low-level convergence is expanding over the area. I expect a tropical storm at 11 p.m. EDT, especially if another forecaster fills Brown's position. UL (150-300 mbar) divergence is excellent. If 13.1N and 45.7W is accurate, it is moving south of the cone's center (TPC positions). Upper-level shear is higher to the NW, but I don't see asny significant inhibitive factors in the immediate vicinity.

Finally, look here:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

This buoy was previously mentioned in the discussion, and it's reporting 27 kts (1-min) ~60 miles away from the LLC. Everything indicates a possible tropical storm.

[bocadude86]

And what happens if it isnt close enough to respond to the trough?

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
348 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007



.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST AVAILABLE GFS/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SPLITTING OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
THEREAFTER...GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN BECOME
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...
ALSO DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW BUT POSITIONING IT FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE QUITE WET FOR THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD POINT TOWARDS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL POPS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MAINLAND CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING HIGH AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS
AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AT THIS TIME.



PUBLIC/MARINE.........JACOBSON
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...LEE
DATA COLLECTION.......RIZZO

[Gustywind]

The Aqua pass does show the center a little east fo where some of the sat fixs are placing it, though I'd have to go with 45.1W.

I am waiting for the next pass though to clear up the confusion, or the next QS

As for the question if I am still going with my previous track, this depression is south of that forecast and possibly a little faster. I do not see a reason to change. latest UKMET may be encouraging for Sfla if this is close enough to the east coast to respond to the mid level trough

So, in contrast with the NHC, you suggest a threat for the islands?...Ill keep closely watching it...

Absolutely me too, to close for comfort HurricaneMaster_PR we wil see what happens with td 8 !

[tolakram]

The diurnal maximum will likely accomplish this job within the next few hours, especially because of some previous data that indicates a possible tropical storm.

Diurnal max is in the morning, we are heading to dmin at sunset. Did I misunderstand what you meant?

[fasterdisaster]

The diurnal maximum will likely accomplish this job within the next few hours, especially because of some previous data that indicates a possible tropical storm.

Diurnal max is in the morning, we are heading to dmin at sunset. Did I misunderstand what you meant?

No, DMAX is at night.

[RL3AO]

The diurnal maximum will likely accomplish this job within the next few hours, especially because of some previous data that indicates a possible tropical storm.

Diurnal max is in the morning, we are heading to dmin at sunset. Did I misunderstand what you meant?

No, DMAX is at night.

DMax is around 4-7am. DMin is around 5-8pm.

[fasterdisaster]

No, DMAX is at night.

DMax is around 4-7am. DMin is around 5-8pm.

Oops. Sorry, tolakram, you were right and I was wrong hehe.

[destruction92]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
348 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007



.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST AVAILABLE GFS/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SPLITTING OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
THEREAFTER...GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN BECOME
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...
ALSO DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW BUT POSITIONING IT FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE QUITE WET FOR THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD POINT TOWARDS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL POPS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MAINLAND CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING HIGH AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS
AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AT THIS TIME.



PUBLIC/MARINE.........JACOBSON
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...LEE
DATA COLLECTION.......RIZZO

This "cutoff" low talk is a really good sign for Florida, IMO. Earlier today, I remember gatorcane discussing NOGAPS, EURO, and some other models suggesting a ridge maintaining its strength and generally steering TD8 west northwesterly in the direction of the Bahamas and extreme SE coast.

[hial2]

60NM in a dgree of latitude

Thank you everyone!!...Also,in regards to the future shear question...are they forecasting a Debbie scenario where shear ripped apart the storm @ north Hispanola when all the models were pointing to Fla??

[robbielyn]

so if there's an ull near fl that would indeed create sheer at the upper levels which could shred this thing the tutt has been there all season and I don't think it's going to disappear soon. Also it seems that it would pull ingrid north toward the carolinas. So am I completely wrong? I am still learning so please feel free to correct me as long as you are real confident in your accuracy. thanks

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps added

[windstorm99]

Nogaps added

Yea and also ran at 8:00am....

[Derek Ortt]

shift the NOGAPS about 2.5 derees to the west as its initialzation is well too far east

[Ivanhater]

Actually windstorm the time is wrong on the timestamp as all the globals say that...outcome the same....west

[windstorm99]