ATL: IKE Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ecplise over on the floater

Cat5 red ring around the eye. All it needs now is for the eye to clear out some.

[Scorpion]

If this were to become a Cat 5 shortly or it already is one would it not compare to Wilma?

[RattleMan]

06z best track:

AL, 09, 2008090406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 550W, 125, 935, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 75, 120, 1008, 175, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IKE, D,
AL, 09, 2008090406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 550W, 125, 935, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 50, 40, 60, 1008, 175, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IKE, D,
AL, 09, 2008090406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 550W, 125, 935, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 175, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IKE, D,

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

06z best track:

AL, 09, 2008090406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 550W, 125, 935, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 75, 120, 1008, 175, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IKE, D,
AL, 09, 2008090406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 550W, 125, 935, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 50, 40, 60, 1008, 175, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IKE, D,
AL, 09, 2008090406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 550W, 125, 935, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 175, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IKE, D,

125 knots/935 millibars

Based on pressure this is the most intense system of 2008.

[Scorpion]

I think it's pretty incredible how we waited and waited for invests to form into TD's all year and yet this system is just perfect, going through each stage with very little resistance.

[RattleMan]

125 knots/935 millibars

Based on pressure this is the most intense system of 2008.

Not quite; Hondo in the SWIO got 906 from the RSMC.

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 20718-FMEE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

125 knots/935 millibars

Based on pressure this is the most intense system of 2008.

Not quite; Hondo in the SWIO got 906 from the RSMC.

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 20718-FMEE

Should of said for the Atlantic.

[Nexus]

[Nexus]

Looks incredibly self contained, and tiny compared to the Hanna mess. Almost completely surrounded by dry air which apparently cannot find it's way in, and two modest outflow connections. Simply amazing:

[Nexus]

You can see the slot starting to open up SE of Hanna for Ike, in this loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 4km_visir2

[Meso]

Interesting, the eye seems to be 'closing up', either just some fluctuation in size. Or Ike is getting ready for his first EWRC.

[Hockey007]

Is it just me or the eyewall is contracting quite a bit? Haha, I guess it was answered in the last post... I didn't see it until after I posted.

[Meso]

Nope it's not just you That also could be another option, Ike could be getting an even smaller eye? If that's even possible

[Hockey007]

Wilma had a 2nm eye if I remember correctly during her rapid intensification cycle which wouldn't surprise me if Ike had a small eye as well... if Ike feels like intensifying more... Looking at the the picture again, it's probably an EWRC or something.

[Nexus]

Nope it's not just you That also could be another option, Ike could be getting an even smaller eye? If that's even possible

Hopefully it's not behaving like a collapsing star before a supernova

Seriously though, Ike looks about as mean as it gets presently.

[RattleMan]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 040836
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2008
...
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.

[Hockey007]

Wow... less than 35 miles between 125kt and 65 kt
Edit: whoops late by a few seconds.

[boca]

Wxman57 was right the models keep on shifting right. S FL might be in the clear with Ike after all if it turns NNW in the Bahamas.Other than Fay we are dodging Hanna, now maybe Ike.

[Meso]

I don't know though, It may be a bit early to tell. Agreed it's looking less likely than yesterday. But there are still quite a few models in that area. Only 2 or so take the storm to a guarenteed "Out to sea", While most of the models show the NNW turn as it approached Florida. A landfall somewhere along the east coast looks quite possible, though Florida does look safer than 24 hours ago

[wxman57]

Wxman57 was right the models keep on shifting right. S FL might be in the clear with Ike after all if it turns NNW in the Bahamas.Other than Fay we are dodging Hanna, now maybe Ike.

Just woke up. Here are the 6Z models. Shift east continues: