ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[thetruesms]

I don't get all this talk of a recurve and missing the islands when it continues to drop in latitude. Below 12 N is a VERY low latitude. I expect models to shift back south with regards to the islands eventually. Beyond that I have no idea though.

Many of the models look to be initializing Three too far to the north. The 12Z UKMET has a better initialization and takes the storm into the Caribbean.

[KWT]

2.5 does support this being upgraded, plus the strucutre has really improved over the last 12hrs or so, but the lack of central convection may just make the NHC hold back for another 6hrs.

IMO this may be at 35kts now though.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO once again out to sea.

[Sanibel]

With the latest GFDL all we need now is a back-building High to settle on top of it and send it on an identical track as Andrew straight smack on into Florida as a strong hurricane.

[KWT]

Yep, will be interesting to see how well it verifies. The forward speed is a little better thenthe 0z run but still looks a little on the slow side to me.

About 50W at 72hrs. I'm keeping a track by the way of the forecasted speeds.

[clfenwi]

Of course, SAB went with 2.5 last time around as well. TAFB's 12Z position was a bit further north, which caused their number to be lower.

[Tropicswatcher]

New EURO once again out to sea.

And brings the disturbance behind towards the Caribbean.

[KWT]

11.3N looks about right to me looking at it, I'd estimate a motion of about 265 as the NHC said last advisory.

Also just some historical facts I posted on another site...this is a list of all depressions within 11.5N and 34W which is roughly where it was at last advisory:

Dog 1951 (Carribean)
Esther (Recurve at 70W...but it was already moving NW at this point)
Able 1952 (Hit N.Carolina)
Carol 1953 (recurve, looks just like ECM actually!)
Dora 1964 (hit N.Florida
Frederic 1979 (Hit the Gulf!)
Allen 1980 (Hit south Texas)
Erin 2001 (recurve)
Frances 2004 (Florida)
Dean 2007 (Yucatan)

[KWT]

Which is really interesting...as it means the ridge builds back in to some extent after TD3 goes out to sea, therefore IF it does end up much further south like the GFS, we'd have a big threat on our hands.

[Brent]

11.3N looks about right to me looking at it, I'd estimate a motion of about 265 as the NHC said last advisory.

Also just some historical facts I posted on another site...this is a list of all depressions within 11.5N and 34W which is roughly where it was at last advisory:

Dog 1951 (Carribean)
Esther (Recurve at 70W...but it was already moving NW at this point)
Able 1952 (Hit N.Carolina)
Carol 1953 (recurve, looks just like ECM actually!)
Dora 1964 (hit N.Florida
Frederic 1979 (Hit the Gulf!)
Allen 1980 (Hit south Texas)
Erin 2001 (recurve)
Frances 2004 (Florida)
Dean 2007 (Yucatan)

3 out of 10 recurved... not good odds.

[cycloneye]

The big question is if TD 3/Bill will follow the weakness that Ana leaves.Or it tracks more west if gets strong as Derek has said earlier.

[KWT]

Yep and one of them was already heading NW by now...so really only 2 out of 9 count.

Anyway you can see the easterly surge as the upper high continues to shift westwards:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Now the Azores high is pushing out to about 40W so it shouldn't gain any latitude before then really.

[storms NC]

There was one year the UKMET nailed it every time. I forget what year. maybe 2005-06

[Derek Ortt]

and Erin didn't exactly miss land. It brushed Bermuda and then struck Newfoundland

[Derek Ortt]

Tales of the CMC

it's 0Z position from the 12Z forecast is 11.8N 34.2W

its already well by that position!

[Scorpion]

Deep convection firing over the center again, lets see if this expands

[KWT]

Also Derek its going to be at least half a degree too far north by that point, so its a good deal too far NE.

The only thing I will say is whilst the UKMO does nail upper highs, it tends to be less impressive with weakness in highs, in fact it can be very poor.

[KWT]

Yep Derek so it weren't a total recurve by any means, enough to prevent the US from getting much.

Still one big burst and we have Bill IMO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The big question is if TD 3/Bill will follow the weakness that Ana leaves.Or it tracks more west if gets strong as Derek has said earlier.

From what Im looking at it dont look like Ana will make a weakness...They all head twards FL and the gulf...whether its a storm or a swirl..

[Ivanhater]