2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[tropicwatch]

00Z Euro indicates 15-18" of rain offshore SE Louisiana next Tue-Thu. Heavy squalls out over very warm water will need to be watched closely.

The front moving into the GOM now might be the cause of the wet weather the models are seeing.

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/ecef125177.png
Unusual appears to drift into the grid from the N then tracks SSW.

https://i.imgsafe.org/f31177d812.png
Edit same storm i latter located on EC ens,same final result as the above plot.

Time now to watch this cut off low modeled storm off the SE.

[gatorcane]

00Z UKMET more bullish on the northern Gulf coast system with development commencing around 4 days from now. There are some storms in the NE Gulf this morning looking at SAT imagery.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z Euro is showing a big area of low pressure moving off the coast of Northeast Africa around 30N and moving SW...interesting feature which originates from so far north:

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/761248631814959104

[USTropics]

The 12z ensembles have increasing probability of TC genesis from a homegrown system. The 12z operational models hint at this potential in the Northern GOM or off the EC as well:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118123

[1900hurricane]

Global guidance may have some trouble overall until they sort out the western Pacific mess. I've cherry-picked the craziest model run so far (00Z CMC), but with similar runs from other globals over the past few days, this should give some idea of what guidance is struggling with.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/761586558306689024

[wxman57]

Cue crickets chirping... That's what I see as far as development over the next 2 weeks. MJO in the West Pac, increasing pressure in the Atlantic, & lots of dry air in the tropics spell quiet for a couple of weeks. I do see signs of a change after the 21st.

[Steve H.]

Crickets, Nothing on the horizon right now.

[TheStormExpert]

I really wouldn't put too much stock in the GFS especially it's long-range since it's done so poorly as of lately.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Actually I think its done pretty well compared to the ludicrous runs some of the other models were showing in regards to the trough in the gulf. 40"+ widespread swath of rain along the northern gulf, please. Gfs was the first and only model showing the ull inland and not amounting to anything , all the others followed.

[stormlover2013]

Some people are saying the next 2 weeks will be quiet

[Hurricaneman]

I'll say this, the models are going to show very little with the MJO in a unfavorable phase but the last 10 days of the month there could be quite a bit of activity so here's what I will say, enjoy the quiet because I believe that from the last 10 days of the month through early November might give us something to remember similar to 1998

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hurricaneman]

Also I've noticed over the years that many convectionless waves in the MDR have become hurricanes like Andrew, Floyd, Charley, and the most recent being Earl so its something to watch for in the models if they start to pick up on activity even if it picks up development on a convectionless wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Siker]

Models indicate a surge of moisture from the Southwest Caribbean will interact with the tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles, with a broad area of lower pressures developing in the Western Caribbean / Southwestern Gulf in about a week. GFS and its ensembles are the most aggressive, but the Euro and its ensembles depict the same pattern (with a few members showing a tropical cyclone).

GEFS PWAT:



GEFS member spread:



EPS MSLP:

[TheStormExpert]

Also I've noticed over the years that many convectionless waves in the MDR have become hurricanes like Andrew, Floyd, Charley, and the most recent being Earl so its something to watch for in the models if they start to pick up on activity even if it picks up development on a convectionless wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Phil K. posted several days ago on Twitter showing how weak the wave that eventually would span Hurricane Charley(2004) was.
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/761244078235275264

[USTropics]

Long range ensembles (120-240 hours) are once again sniffing out a very similar setup that spawned Earl:

[TheStormExpert]

Long-range but 12z Euro is showing quite a strong and potent tropical wave exiting Africa in about 240hrs.(10 days).

[Hammy]

Also I've noticed over the years that many convectionless waves in the MDR have become hurricanes like Andrew, Floyd, Charley, and the most recent being Earl so its something to watch for in the models if they start to pick up on activity even if it picks up development on a convectionless wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Phil K. posted several days ago on Twitter showing how weak the wave that eventually would span Hurricane Charley(2004) was.
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/761244078235275264

Amazing to think the difference a mere nine days made, kind of scary...

[CourierPR]

In 1992, Hurricane Andrew had degenerated into almost an open wave before it made its monster comeback.