ATL: HERMINE - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z guidance with some models showing WNW bend in the Bahamas:

[stormlover2013]

yeah they are getting a better grip on the ridge but you know what we never know lol, these systems and models will you head aches lol

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z guidance with some models showing WNW bend in the Bahamas:

Looks like fairly decent agreement on the general track. Strength is the big question. The models dont seem to show the fairly large envelope of the system. I guess if we see formation in the next 24-48 hours, they will have a better grip on down stream strength and size.

[Frank2]

I agree, but if it stays weak, much less of an issue. Right now it is not tapping the ITCZ, unlike 90L, so that's an important factor. The current flare might be more diurnal or due to an outflow boundary related to Fiona - we shall see, but the GFS continues to show a weak system...

[OuterBanker]

Ah, back to the right again I see. Someone needs to turn the windshield wipers off.

[northjaxpro]

Also it appears the models are beginning.to come into better agreement with a turn west-northwest in the extreme northwestern Bahamas. If the trend holds, 99L looks to head toward either the NE Florida or East Central Florida coast. HOWEVER, this could shift as time progresses of course.

[chaser1]

Also it appears the models are beginning.to come into better agreement with a turn west-northwest in the extreme northwestern Bahamas. If the trend holds, 99L looks to head toward either the NE Florida or East Central Florida coast. HOWEVER, this could shift as time progresses of course.

Your particular choice of piers for a little Jimmy Buffet, Rum Runners, and a folding chair to watch the thickening sky's roll in?

[gatorcane]

Updated SWFMD plot with some models/ensembles showing west bend in the Bahamas. The UKMET also bends it west, though the blue line is messed up in this graphic:

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Updated SWFMD plot with some models/ensembles showing west bend in the Bahamas. The UKMET also bends it west, though the blue line is messed up in this graphic:

ah good ol herberts box. interesting to see if it keeps statistical norms passing through and does hit FL or pulls an Erika

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFS starts rolling in a few minutes.....

[storm4u]

Gfs out to 18

[gatorcane]

GFS looks a hair faster through 60 hours so far, other than that, no major differences so far.

[SFLcane]

Lol GFS maybe no development again.

[Medtronic15]

Yeah the GFS is a Joke! (sarcasm)

[SFLcane]

One word ...........DRY AIR...........

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/767750561663975424

[gatorcane]

Through 84 hours, GFS is slightly to the left and has a slightly weaker 850mb vort.

[Alyono]

One word ...........DRY AIR...........

look for another reason. Moisture envelope is LARGE with this system

[NDG]

Lol GFS maybe no development again.

Through 60 hrs is identical to the last couple of hours, just a strong tropical wave as it crosses the Lesser Antilles.

[Alyono]

this thing runs into a very large upper low according to the MU