2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

Some ensemble support from the 00z ECMWF now evident in the Caribbean. Also backing off on the far EATL hurricane:

https://i.imgur.com/09tAfbM.png

A few tracks take this across the Yucatan:
https://i.imgur.com/VfJXhiC.png

Also worth noting that almost all the members that develop something move it west into the Yucatan. Deterministic Euro also hasn't had a single run develop this. That stuff over FL is the broad low currently over the NW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

How does a hurricane that strong that the GFS is showing with a trough over the Gulf and Florida not turn north? Climo strongly suggests it at least where the GFS is showing genesis.

Note the GEFS seems more in line with climo and very active I must say:

[SFLcane]

How does a hurricane that strong that the GFS is showing with a trough over the Gulf and Florida not turn north? Climo strongly suggests it at least where the GFS is showing genesis.

Because that trough is to the northeast of the storm so it gets caught under the Western ridge. EPS what ever little support there is also takes it westward.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z CMC and 00z UKMET now support development too.

[SFLcane]

Though quite active Looks like almost all 06z GEFS go into the Yucatan.

[Aric Dunn]

Models have been showing various vorts along the trough danggling from south gulf out to Bermuda. So besides the obvious sub tropical development that started yesterday ene of bahamas. Could see a quick spin up td along florida east coast. Area to watch is south of miami and north of cuba.

[Ivanhater]

Cmc similar to Gfs over Yucatan into southern gulf

[SFLcane]

Yeah I mean GEFS/GFS are very much all in on this thing. Usually once it's inside 7 days like this it's pretty reliable But by then the Euro usually has something. So I still think it could be (probably is?) convective bias to some extent.

[SFLcane]

00z CMC and 00z UKMET now support development too.

UKMET and deterministic Euro show nothing.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z CMC and 00z UKMET now support development too.

UKMET and deterministic Euro show nothing.

00z UKMET has a weak low in the SW Caribbean by D7.

[toad strangler]

What happened to the catch phrase "You want to be in the bullseye this far out because you know it's not coming"
I don't buy any run by run track. All that matters for now is the growing model consensus for a storm. And yes, right now the Euro is becoming the outlier.
Very interseting.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Low appears @144 hours and finishes into NGOM GOM... Seems if this model low avoids Yucatan it may be a major hurricane...

[SFLcane]

Can you say ridge..

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1181174824326045697

[HurricaneBelle]

06z GFS... Low appears @144 hours and finishes into NGOM GOM... Seems if this model low avoids Yucatan it may be a major hurricane...

This track would be the spitting image of Isidore 2002

[Emmett_Brown]

Reminds me of the 1998 pattern that sent Mitch W into central America. Hopefully nothing as strong as Mitch will form though.

[NDG]

Past 5-6 days mid level sypnotic set up are really hard to know for sure. We are talking about possible formation near the 6-7 days range, even if there is a narrow east to west mid level ridging to the north of the south central Caribbean that would mean a system that would move westward towards C.A. or western Caribbean, so any little weakening of that mid level ridge like it usually happens this time of the year it would mean a poleward track of whatever it is down there. I would not write the Euro's forecast past 5-6 days on stone.

[USTropics]

The difference between the GFS ensembles and the ECMWF ensembles with the how far south the trough over the EC digs down is why most of the ECMWF ensemble members bury this into Central America:


A lot will change with the upper-level pattern in future runs, as you can see with the trough position in the past 4 GFS run trend:

[chaser1]

Reminds me of the 1998 pattern that sent Mitch W into central America. Hopefully nothing as strong as Mitch will form though.

Was thinking exactly the same thing here. Coincidentally, we'd potentially be at the "M" storm again too (barring any subtropical development over the N. Atlantic.... but then again, it's not as if NHC is at all quick on naming those this year )

[chaser1]

Past 5-6 days mid level sypnotic set up are really hard to know for sure. We are talking about possible formation near the 6-7 days range, even if there is a narrow east to west mid level ridging to the north of the south central Caribbean that would mean a system that would move westward towards C.A. or western Caribbean, so any little weakening of that mid level ridge like it usually happens this time of the year it would mean a poleward track of whatever it is down there. I would not write the Euro's forecast past 5-6 days on stone.

https://i.imgur.com/xj7ydwF.gif

I agree and tend to think that climo and the synoptic set up would lean toward any organizing system to gain latitude toward the N.W. Caribbean. My only guess on the EURO's resistance against genesis is that the process would be so slow to develop, that any "nearer term" gyre might simply drift primarily westward especially at a lower latitude right now. I think the primary difference between the UK/EURO camp and the GFS and GEM would be whether the overall upper level conditions are or are not particularly conducive for development to even occur during the approaching 5-7 day period.

[blp]

NAVGEM with a big ramp up on the 06z. So its the GFS, Icon, Navgem, CMC, Ukmet on board. Only a matter of time now for the Euro to come in.