ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Oval eye
8x12 nm

Saw a rain rate of around 80 mm/hr.

[GCANE]

Outflow boundary on the west of the CoC.
Maybe an indication pushing mid-level shear out of the way

[GCANE]

Oval eye
8x12 nm

Saw a rain rate of around 80 mm/hr.

Heating the core up at a high rate.
Updraft I think is getting the anti-cyclone closer to the CoC

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6843/kERs1O.gif

The amount of Lightning in the eyewall is absurd, reminds me of Ian 2022

[TallyTracker]

NHC went with 135 kts:

11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 8
Location: 18.2°N 54.5°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

[TorSkk]

Not expected to regain cat5

[aspen]

Not expected to regain cat5

Watch it regain Cat 5 intensity within 12 hours lol

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m curious as to what’s so exciting about the clear weather over New England that’s causing them to periodically relocate the goes mesoscale floater to it, away from Lee…

[Iceresistance]

I’m curious as to what’s so exciting about the clear weather over New England that’s causing them to periodically relocate the goes mesoscale floater to it, away from Lee…

Severe weather threat is the reason why

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1700163417611407598

[TallyTracker]

I think there is an excellent chance Lee regains Cat 5 strength again. The shear briefly disrupted it but many models do not show Lee peaking for another day or two. It is not uncommon for Cat 5 hurricanes to weaken and become a Cat 5 multiple times. Irma bounced up and down a bit as did others. The fact that the NHC keeps Lee at >145 mph for the next couple of days indicates they expect it will bounce between Cat 4 and 5. The storm is not likely going to be that static for that long.

[Teban54]

Not expected to regain cat5

The NHC advisory states the possibility of restrengthening (into a Cat 5 based on current intensity), even though it wasn't in the intensity forecast:

By later this weekend, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more conducive and some restrengthening is possible.

[Emmett_Brown]

I think there is an excellent chance Lee regains Cat 5 strength again. The shear briefly disrupted it but many models do not show Lee peaking for another day or two. It is not uncommon for Cat 5 hurricanes to weaken and become a Cat 5 multiple times. Irma bounced up and down a bit as did others. The fact that the NHC keeps Lee at >145 mph for the next couple of days indicates they expect it will bounce between Cat 4 and 5. The storm is not likely going to be that static for that long.

I agree. The RI that happened yesterday was kind of a bonus. The best conditions for strengthening actually lie ahead when he gets north of Puerto Rico. I think he will restrengthen at least then if not sooner, and might actually reach peak intensity as some of the hurricane models show.

[GeneralChow]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6843/kERs1O.gif

The amount of Lightning in the eyewall is absurd, reminds me of Ian 2022

It's pretty common in strong storms that are getting sheared . It's due to the extreme convergence zone that's being created between the lower level flow, as well as the advection around the eye spinning the updrafts, from the East rotating up towards the mid-level shear from West and Southwest. The Western eye-wall is resisting the vertical tilting caused by mid-level shear. You can see the lopsided convection orientation on the down-shear side, and the lightening is mainly on the west side (strongest convergence/resistence).

[url]file:///Users/newguest/Desktop/Schematic-illustration-of-the-shear-induced-convective-asymmetry-in-hurricane-eyewalls.png[/url]

[cycloneye]

There was severe turbulence on the last pass by the Air Force plane at the SW eyewall. Pressure at 943 mbs.

URNT12 KNHC 081602
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132023
A. 08/15:29:50Z
B. 18.30 deg N 054.64 deg W
C. 700 mb 2620 m
D. 943 mb
E. 270 deg 10 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C10
H. 121 kt
I. 059 deg 7 nm 15:27:30Z
J. 134 deg 128 kt
K. 057 deg 9 nm 15:27:00Z
L. 137 kt
M. 244 deg 4 nm 15:31:30Z
N. 327 deg 112 kt
O. 239 deg 6 nm 15:32:00Z
P. 9 C / 3045 m
Q. 23 C / 3038 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 0413A LEE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 128 KT 057 / 9 NM 15:27:00Z
SEVERE TURB SW EYEWALL

[sikkar]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6843/kERs1O.gif

The amount of Lightning in the eyewall is absurd, reminds me of Ian 2022

It's pretty common in strong storms that are getting sheared . It's due to the extreme convergence zone that's being created between the lower level flow, as well as the advection around the eye spinning the updrafts, from the East rotating up towards the mid-level shear from West and Southwest. The Western eye-wall is resisting the vertical tilting caused by mid-level shear. You can see the lopsided convection orientation on the down-shear side, and the lightening is mainly on the west side (strongest convergence/resistence).

[url]file:///Users/newguest/Desktop/Schematic-illustration-of-the-shear-induced-convective-asymmetry-in-hurricane-eyewalls.png[/url]

Thanks for the easy to understand explanation.

[GCANE]

Border line pinhole

Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)

[cheezyWXguy]

Lee looks to be regaining some symmetry on visible, maybe the mid level shear is reducing some. If that keeps up I could see it regaining a bit of strength, but that small eye and the overall banding structure at the moment suggests to me that ERC is probably likely in the not too distant future

[ElectricStorm]

Recon hasn't updated in nearly 30min