TD 10...Back Again

[vbhoutex]

I don't like they way the models are trending. The longer this thing stays just a blob the better the chances it'll go into the Gulf.

I hope that front pushes down next week, but with it being August, getting a little concerned...I dunno if the westerlies can make it down here just yet.

The front will probably make it down to the coast, especially to our East. It possibly will here, but it is iffy. Either way, we are going to be on the backside and there is the possiblility, presuming xtd10 regenerates and/or makes it into the GOM(an increasing possibility imo)that the system, whatever form it is in would be pushed West towards us. This will be especially true if the ridge builds in as strongly as it is expected to by some. As always, we wait, we watch.

[elysium]

Just stopping by. Read several posts, and since it hasn't been mentioned, just wanted to point out the circulation center as it becomes more visable, especially over the past 2 or so hours. The circulation center is not the turbulence over Puerto Rico. Watching that area for development will only lead to more questions than answers. Actually, the models are pretty spot on with center location, which right now is due north of the eastern portion of the Dominican Republic. This is the area to watch for development. If your monitors do not have a very high resolution, click onto the DVORAK at the NHC.

The models seem to have an excellent handle on TD 10 remnants.

[elysium]

correction: That should read Hispaniola.

[boca]

Elysuim post the link please.

[boca]

Theirs a spin just north of the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[gkrangers]

I see what Elysium sees, but I don't expect anything from it.

[clfenwi]

Was surprised to see this in the 00Z UKMET guidance (it had dropped out of it for several runs):

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 68.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 20.08.2005 21.5N 68.6W WEAK
12UTC 20.08.2005 22.3N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2005 22.7N 73.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2005 22.9N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2005 23.0N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2005 23.5N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2005 23.7N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2005 24.6N 82.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2005 24.5N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2005 26.0N 84.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2005 26.3N 86.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2005 26.1N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2005 27.1N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[elysium]

The NHC site. Go to satellite imagery and click onto floater 1. You can choose either DVORAK or the shortwave loop, or even IR. But it's better to first locate the center with either of the first two. The coordinates are roughly 22.5N and 70W. The problem is that you really cannot position exactly where TD 10 remnants will enter into the more favorable environment. You have to monitor the system itself. When it gets there, you will know. The reason that I bring it to your attention is because I read a couple of posts that seemed to indicate monitoring was being done east of where the actual center remnants is. The turbulence that is twisting a little bit north of Puerto Rico is just turbulence and is pretty stationary. The center remnants, as is shown by the models, is moving westward to WNW at around 12 mph.

[weatherSnoop]

In analysis forum, MW thinks the possible center of circulation is around 20-65. That is quite different than elysium's 22.5N and 70W and the initialization of 21.5N 68.6W. FWIW

[gkrangers]

In analysis forum, MW thinks the possible center of circulation is around 20-65. That is quite different than elysium's 22.5N and 70W and the initialization of 21.5N 68.6W. FWIW

There does look to be a spin at 22.5N and 70W...just not sure what to make of it since its so far removed from the convection.

As far as 20N/65W...thats much more near the convection, and I don't think MW was saying there is a circulation there, just guessing really. If there was a circulation there, then the storm might be of some concern, since it'd be near/under the convection. Maybe a bit of mid level turning..but he wasn't pointing out a center.

[weatherSnoop]

Looks like the wave axis of 10 is lagging behind where the NHC has been estimating the center in the last couple of model runs...I would guess if there is a center it's back at 20/65.

You had me scared there for a second, gk. The last thing I would want to do is misreperesent the words of someone who's opinion I hold in high regard. I will look more closely for myself as I respect your thoughts as well.

[elysium]

In Don Southerland's alaysis post, on page two he has posted a graphic which is a few hours old now, showing the initialization position near 21.5 and 68.5W, which has moved a number of hours now to the WNW.

After dark hours are really not the best time to be viewing these skin and bones type features. The reason for the interest garnered by this particular feature has nothing to do with the feature itself, but rather the this feature's environment. It's a study of the entire envelop in this case, and not just the circulation remnants. If and when it takes off, you won't need any help finding it.

[gkrangers]

2AM TWD doesn't even mention ex TD10 as a tropical wave.

Just a surface trough, with no development expected.

A SURFACE
TROUGH... REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 23N69W TO
18N68W. COMPUTER MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE TROUGH ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK
TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW MODELS ALSO HINT AT
REDEVELOPMENT BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.

[Sanibel]

I can't figure this wave out. It has a very weak surface spiral near 21.5-69.6 but the convection is 400 miles away east. It should have pulled away from its convection and died, but the weak spiral is still swirling. In fact, a tiny convection dot just formed near the spiral.

Maybe the deeper convection to the east is a convergence zone intensified by TD10's pass?

If it does redevelop it won't be because of anything it is showing now - unless, of course, the convection to the east is a sheared reflection of the center's energy...

[Sanibel]

The 6:15 frame just came out of blackout. The 21.6-69.75 center looks better and looks like it just turned slightly more WNW.

Driving me crazy because the lagging convection is deepening while the spiral looks slightly stronger.

WHAT IS KEEPING THE SPIRAL FROM FLARING?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Nhc thinks 5 to 10 knot shear is unfavable...In they also think that no development is expected.

They are now saying that system over the Caribbean has a better chance. No word on the tropical low that has moved off Africa.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 200927
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Nimbus]

Interesting exercise in infrared interpretation.
The vorticity north of Puerto Rico looks like it is in the low level clouds?
There is shear west of there and all the convection is still east being stirred up by whatever is left of the mid level circulation.

[bigmike]

A 63 page post on a tropical wave? People are either bored or panicky.

[CharleySurvivor]

It keeps us all guessing, wondering and on our toes. There isn't much going on elsewere anyway. That's the fun of posting and reading this site.

[wxman57]

First of all, it's just about impossible to locate a weak surface circulation on IR satellite imagery. You're not looking at low clouds, for the most part, you're looking at clouds miles above the surface. I am looking at a high-res visible loop and see no evidence of any spin north of the islands. I plotted a series of surface charts from 00Z-12Z and see no evidence of any rotation anywhere. Just ESE-SE winds at 5-15 kts through the region. Pressures there are 1016-1017mb - quite high.

So it appears that all we have here is a moderate tropical wave this morning. It doesn't appear to be any better organized than it was yesterday or the day before. Chances of development are fading fast. Could just bring some rain to Florida in 3-4 days. Time to look east toward the African coast for Jose.

Here are a few images of the new wave:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo1.gif

Visible shot:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo2.gif