ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Blown Away]

Yep, convection is firing around 14N.....I'm thinking the northern circulation will be the one to spin. As such, 94L should pass north of the islands and eventually get picked up by the trough in several days. Just my thoughts......MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

The problem is, the trough becomes shallow and lifts out allowing the ridge to build back in with stronger heights coming off the east coast behind the trough as well. What I'm watching is just how much latitude this gains in the short term...It is systems like this that makes tropic watching fun to watch

I agree Ivanhater, below 20N at 60W gets my attention.

[boca]

I think the ULL NE of Puerto Rico will pull this up NW in the short term.

[Scorpion]

I think this will end up as the biggest threat to the CONUS this season.

[jinftl]

Maybe we, and I include myself in this, need to spell out even more clearly that discussing a possible scenario does not make it the most likely scenario. How many storms in the spot where 94L is now have gone on to clobber a location? Most do not. Some do. And what we are always trying to do is determine if the current system is falling in line with the more likely scenario, or a less likely-but potentially destructive one.

Please cite any post that even implies a GOM EC threat. Read through the posts and you will understand why such a statement is not valid and not based on any science.

No matter how many times folks try and teach the concept of margin of error and forecast error beyond 5 days, people read what they want to read. No model even goes past 65W due to being beyond 120 hours.

Well I habe tosay that you guys hae changed your minds so much on this one. Derek at one point said he did not think it would do anything and now we have a GOM EC threat. Am i wrong? What si going on with this thing? Is there a NFL threat?

THANK YOU for pointing out that no post implies a GOM EC threat.
On the contrary, the Pro Mets that post on this site have been unanimous in thier forecast that this will not be an EC or GOM threat.
Wxman advises that the NE Carib needs to be wary of 94L and Derek HAS YET to say anything about an EC or GOM threat!
I go along with the consensus that this will either develop and recurve or poof out.
And I completely agree that Andrew was a rarity that headed due west from pretty far out that would occur about 1 out of 100 times.

[boca]

I think this will end up as the biggest threat to the CONUS this season.

I wouldn't say that yet.It good pull a Bill and recurve,still only in the 1st quarter with this one.

[MWatkins]

If I were picking a center based on IR2, IR4 (yikes, such a bad idea to use 4 to pick a center) and the most recent QSCAT I would place it near 13N 49W.

Looking at WV imagery it's pretty clear to see what is weakening the ridge. There is a strong upper low sitting up at 27.5N 55W (or there abouts). It is moving to the west faster then the envelope of 94L.

The 0Z GFS initializes this feature barely reflecting at 500MB, but there is a lot of room between the 594DM contour and the invest, suggesting that a wnw to nw motion is likely as soon as deep convection fires again.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

The bulk of the 594 ridge will slide eastward in the next few days as the EC trough progresses eastward. This is going to open up the gate for a while.

In the GFS, this does not look like a pressure pattern that would drive something westward for a long time if it were well developed in the mean layer. In fact it's hard to see anything in the 850MB layer that would keep a shallow system moving much beyond 60W after day 5.

There is clearly more ridging from the Euro though.

I guess we will see which model has the better solution!

MW

[jinftl]

But clearly you see why this is not anywhere close to being a 'biggest threat' right now? If in 5 days, it is where the current models suggest, and is heading more west than nw, the threat level does go up some. But even then, no part of the u.s. may be close enough to the system to even be in the 5-day cone.

Personally, i think the biggest threat of the cape verde season is possible here, but i suspect the ultimate biggest threat and/or biggest impact from a storm this season will not come from a cape verde system. It will be a home brew or a western caribbean irene or wilma tracking system.

I think this will end up as the biggest threat to the CONUS this season.

[Evil Jeremy]

Isnt the GFS known for downplaying and underestimating ridges?

[vbhoutex]

I think the ULL NE of Puerto Rico will pull this up NW in the short term.

It is moving West faster than 94L's envelope per Mike Watkins and by inspection of the WV sat loop. This should help to produce the suggested weakness in the ridge(and it appears there is another one moving along right behind it)everyone is talking about. It may be that weakness as opposed to the troughing that start to pull/pulls 94L(whatever it becomes) North if it is pulled north. I am still not sold on the trough affecting it though.

[Javlin]

I think the ULL NE of Puerto Rico will pull this up NW in the short term.

So we have an ULL steering something at mid-levels??just wondering.This is weak,W it goes maybe even phoof,just watching at this latitude nothing more.

[vbhoutex]

But clearly you see why this is not anywhere close to being a 'biggest threat' right now? If in 5 days, it is where the current models suggest, and is heading more west than nw, the threat level does go up some. But even then, no part of the u.s. may be close enough to the system to even be in the 5-day cone.

Personally, i think the biggest threat of the cape verde season is possible here, but i suspect the ultimate biggest threat and/or biggest impact from a storm this season will not come from a cape verde system. It will be a home brew or a western caribbean irene or wilma tracking system.

I think this will end up as the biggest threat to the CONUS this season.

Looking more and more likely, but we still have plenty of time left in the CV season too for a "surprise".

[HURAKAN]

Going to sleep now but I just wanted to say that for all your scenarios to play out, this needs to develop. Lets see that first and then we will know. For the moment all the words are being blown away by the wind. I think 94L will develop but won't bet on when!!!!

[Bocadude85]

Yea Im not sure this will be the biggest threat to the CONUS this season... seems to me this is already lifting up N a little quicker then before.

[Scorpion]

Yea Im not sure this will be the biggest threat to the CONUS this season... seems to me this is already lifting up N a little quicker then before.

Doesn't matter.. ridge will build in next week and send this west

[Bocadude85]

Yea Im not sure this will be the biggest threat to the CONUS this season... seems to me this is already lifting up N a little quicker then before.

Doesn't matter.. ridge will build in next week and send this west

I am not disputing that the ridge will build in to some degree, I guess we will just have to wait and see how much it builds in and just how far north this gets before turning back to the west.

[Typhoon_Willie]

It will be an interesting 5 days coming up for sure!

[Stormcenter]

There may not be any threat to the CONUS this season the way things are going.
We are about to hit Sept. and the peak. We all know the fronts just get stronger
and stronger as we get closer to Fall. It almost feels like some are just grasping at air and
hoping for something to threaten U.S. The Cape Verde season will be closing it's doors
before you know it.

Yea Im not sure this will be the biggest threat to the CONUS this season... seems to me this is already lifting up N a little quicker then before.

Doesn't matter.. ridge will build in next week and send this west

[jinftl]

Don't forget another wild card.....and this one is kind of key to it all.....will there be a system to move north or west?!?!? Alot of this talk seems to be based on an unspoken assumption that we are going to be dealing with a major hurricane...to either miss us or plow into us. This isn't even a td yet.

The expectations for what 94L will be in terms of strength are not in line with what 94L is at the moment. Let it form first.

Yea Im not sure this will be the biggest threat to the CONUS this season... seems to me this is already lifting up N a little quicker then before.

Doesn't matter.. ridge will build in next week and send this west

I am not disputing that the ridge will build in to some degree, I guess we will just have to wait and see how much it builds in and just how far north this gets before turning back to the west.

[Scorpion]

I am not disputing that the ridge will build in to some degree, I guess we will just have to wait and see how much it builds in and just how far north this gets before turning back to the west.

Look at that huge moisture envelope and tell me this won't form. I have never seen a system like this that did not become something significant.

[Bocadude85]

I am not disputing that the ridge will build in to some degree, I guess we will just have to wait and see how much it builds in and just how far north this gets before turning back to the west.

Look at that huge moisture envelope and tell me this won't form. I have never seen a system like this that did not become something significant.

I never said that I did not this this would develop.. just wasnt sure about the potential path the system will take.