ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[tronbunny]

This image indicates seriously hostile air to the WNW of 97L


Almost looks like the wave has nowhere to go.

[blp]

Yeah that ULL is weakening I think.

Something to note there, notice how before the convection was totally linear, now note the convection is spreading round onto the northern quadrant. Thats a sign of lowering shear. Its still on the high side mind you...

Looking at that loop it looks like the ULL may be diving a little to the SW again

I noticed that as well that might actually provide a favorable scenario.

[KWT]

Yeah that ULL is very impressive, but the key thing is the ULL is moving faster then 97L right now.

Still I think this ULL will probably not totally go away, just effect 97L to varying degrees.

[Weatherfreak000]

Red convection is firing again in association with the convection to the south that 97L is pulling in.

Still highly confident on development.

[wzrgirl1]

I think that originally wxman said that it wouldn't form until late Wednesday or early Thursday. I guess for us diehards, it seems like it's been forever, but it really hasn't. So many factors have to come in to play at just the right time in order for this to become named and it is happening, albeit slow in our eyes. It's so hard to be patient when you have nothing else to do but watch loops, shear tendency maps, etc. the whole day. That's why I try and walk away for a couple of hours otherwise I would go out of my mind!!!!! Hang in there fellow fanatics, I do believe you will get your TD soon.

[Windtalker1]

I totally agree that the upper Level Low is weakening and giving 97L it's best chance for development in the next 12 hours.

Yeah that ULL is weakening I think.

Something to note there, notice how before the convection was totally linear, now note the convection is spreading round onto the northern quadrant. Thats a sign of lowering shear. Its still on the high side mind you...

[Blown Away]

IMO, it appears 97L has slowed down again compared to this afternoon when it seemed to sprint away from the Hispaniola coast. I can't tell if the "LLC" is still on the western edge of the deeper convection or will it tuck in closer to where the convection seems to be converging?

[KWT]

Given the shear BA any low level turning (I don't think there is a LLC, maybe just an eddy trying to develop) will still be on the weswtern edge of the convection.

Its quite a tight margin between the killer shear and the managable shear, could well see 97L go up and down several times yet.

[Bocadude85]

IMO, it appears 97L has slowed down again compared to this afternoon when it seemed to sprint away from the Hispaniola coast. I can't tell if the "LLC" is still on the western edge of the deeper convection or will it tuck in closer to where the convection seems to be converging?

I am not sure there is a LLC at the moment... it seems development chances are diminishing atleast according to the NHC

[Windtalker1]

I think it already "Tucked" the covers are over her head.

IMO, it appears 97L has slowed down again compared to this afternoon when it seemed to sprint away from the Hispaniola coast. I can't tell if the "LLC" is still on the western edge of the deeper convection or will it tuck in closer to where the convection seems to be converging?

[rockyman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For anyone interested, here's my third "danger" map...I'm going to try posting these twice a day (00z and 12z). I think the risk for NE Florida has greatly diminished (especially since the HWRF and GFDL just jumped ship), but the risk for south Florida and the Keys has increased slightly today, as the system has moved/reformed closer to the Turks and Caicos instead of near the eastern tip of Cuba. Down the road, I also think the risk to the eastern Florida Panhandle is decreasing. The north central Gulf Coast is still my area of highest concern, with the highest risk perhaps shifting more toward the central or western Louisiana coastline (earlier it was closer to New Orleans).

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Pressure down.

AL, 97, 2010072200, , BEST, 0, 214N, 728W, 30, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Bocadude85]

I must say that the ULL is really putting some distance between it and 97L... though if does appear to be diving SW again

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

[Nimbus]

The G-IV flight must have have foreseen continued shear.
The ULL appears to be reorienting counter clockwise rather than splitting.
Double ventilation that would be a bad thing..

Beyond 24 hours the ULL/TUTT situation could change but at least we are getting a little quiet time.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Looking at this loop just a couple of quick thoughts. First notice the hook appearance around 21.5N 72W, could be the beginnings of a developing llc. Second the system looks as if it is really starting to congeal. Inflow absorbing the storms coming north from Haiti/DR . Not getting to excited yet because of what happened last night/ early this morning. Anyway looks a lot better in the last couple hours than it has pretty much all day.

[Bocadude85]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Looking at this loop just a couple of quick thoughts. First notice the hook appearance around 21.5N 72W, could be the beginnings of a developing llc. Second the system looks as if it is really starting to congeal. Inflow absorbing the storms coming north from Haiti/DR . Not getting to excited yet because of what happened last night/ early this morning. Anyway looks a lot better in the last couple hours than it has pretty much all day.

Look how flat the western edge is... still some shear around

[Tropics Guy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Deeper convection developing around the C of C or perhaps weak LLC in the last few frames, also seems that shear could be relaxing a bit over the system, IMO could still make TD or weak TS status before FL/FL Straits, all dependent on that ULL of course!.......

TG

[rockyman]

That ULL seems to be speeding off to the west...and, as it does, the convection is finally getting a chance to wrap around to the NW side of the system. If this trend continues, I could definitely see a depression by the 10am advisory.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Boca, do see that, trust me. Early this morning I was calling this dead and how lucky south florida and the keys were for the fact I thought they were going to be dealing with the remants of 97L instead of Bonnie. Just saying it looks a whole lot better than earlier. Give it a couple more hours and see what happens with the storms about to get entrained into the system. Will it continue building/deepening or poof again?

[jasons2k]

I do not believe in using infrared images to look at structure...

But, I'm going out on a limb here and it looks like the LLC is on the far SW side of the convection, sliding W/WNW...along the northern side of Inagua Island. If that's the case, it's still getting sheared pretty badly.