ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Florida1118]

How come there are no TS advisories for Columbia or Venezuela? Tomas is definitely and has been close enough for at least Watches.

[AJC3]

How come there are no TS advisories for Columbia or Venezuela? Tomas is definitely and has been close enough for at least Watches.

The only things that are "definite" are: (1) Tomas is not producing, nor has ever produced, winds remotely close to TS force along the north coast of Venezuela or the ABC islands to the north and (2) There is no forecast model data that supports TS winds developing over coastal Venezuela/Colombia.

[Florida1118]

How come there are no TS advisories for Columbia or Venezuela? Tomas is definitely and has been close enough for at least Watches.

The only things that are "definite" are: (1) Tomas is not producing, nor has ever produced, winds remotely close to TS force along the north coast of Venezuela or the ABC islands to the north and (2) There is no forecast model data that supports TS winds developing over coastal Venezuela/Colombia.

Ok. I understand the no Model support, but this seem relatively close:



And it has been close to the Islands off the coast:

[AJC3]

How come there are no TS advisories for Columbia or Venezuela? Tomas is definitely and has been close enough for at least Watches.

The only things that are "definite" are: (1) Tomas is not producing, nor has ever produced, winds remotely close to TS force along the north coast of Venezuela or the ABC islands to the north and (2) There is no forecast model data that supports TS winds developing over coastal Venezuela/Colombia.

Ok. I understand the no Model support, but this seem relatively close:

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/2543/023213rsm.gif

And it has been close to the Islands off the coast:

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/6629/023213psm.gif

And if those idealized wind radii were actually occurring, then the sustained winds in the ABC islands would have gotten stronger than the 14-16 MPH that were observed.

[Florida1118]

Ok then. Thanks for answering

[FireRat]

Tomas is really putting on a show tonight. This storm is looking like it's a fighter. We'll have to see if this latest storm bursting trend continues into tomorrow morning and day, if it does it may signal the shear's left the guy alone. If it loses it again by morning and the shear's still in place, then I bet we'll be hearing some good news by evening. And if not, well we will have to be careful. Best of luck to y'all in the Caribbean.

[jconsor]

Reports of Tomas's demise are premature. Recon found a well-organized center on the far western edge of the convection, and the pressure (1003 mb) and max winds (40 kt SFMR) suggest the intensity is steady state.

[WeatherGuesser]

'steady state'

Yeah, it's been that way for some time. It's been up, down, stable for the last day or so. Some say it will stay like it is, some say get stronger, some say spin off into the Atlantic fast enough not to have much effect.

Point is, nobody really knows.

11PM has it down to 45MPH from 50MPH at 5PM.

Who knows what the 5AM will show.

[TCmet]

in 11 years as a meteorologist, i have never seen convection this intense on IR. if it persists, Tomas could rapidly strengthen to cat 1 or cat 2 in the next 48 hours.

[Shuriken]

Curacao radar sure picked a fine time to croak....

[WeatherGuesser]

People were wondering about warnings for Haiti. Would they do any good? Is there any system to warn the populus? Is there anyplace for them to go for shelter?

[WeatherGuesser]

Back up to 50MPH in the 5AM update.

[WeatherGuesser]

New 5 Day cone of uncertainty/maybe/possibly now slows down the arrival over Haiti from Friday daytime to Friday overnight/Saturday pre-dawn.


REEEEAAALLLY bad timing if that holds true.

[cycloneye]

Very intense convection over center.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Tomas spins the Caribbean
franceantilles.fr 01.11.2010
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... -90799.php

After having crossed the Caribbean arc this weekend, Tomas continues its road in the Caribbean and poses a grave threat to Haiti.

Tomas, demoted Sunday evening in tropical storm has weakened but should regain forces again tomorrow.
It is moving toward the Northwest. For the moment cannot know with certainty whether it will hit Haiti, the Jamaica or Cuba.

Phenomenon advances about 20 kilometres per hour on the Caribbean and its trajectory provides wire to challenge the forecasters who are considering it again touches land inhabited Thursday.

Tomas crossed arc Caribbean Saturday between Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent displaying blowers winds in excess of 120 km/h.

Less powerful than the previous cyclone to hit the small antilles (Dean and Ivan in particular), caused significant damage in our neighbours to the South because of developed to evacuate to the Caribbean. Tomas has indeed remained stationary for several hours on top of the Islands.

More than wind, they are the water spouts which have caused damage, primarily in the South of St. Lucia. According to media sainte-Lucia, dozens of houses were destroyed. Networks (road, water and electricity) have also suffered. Saint-Lucien Government evokes a period of two to three weeks of work to see the road network and in particular Road West find its normal state.

No human victim would be a regrettable.

Before touching the Caribbean arc, Tomas caused material damage to electricity in Barbados according the u.s. national hurricane (NHC).

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested... here are some pics of the damages in Martinica (floodings). View all thumbnaills

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 3diaporama

After the passage of Tomas: the RN5 cut River Salée
photos j.-m. franceantilles.fr 31.10.2010

Significant precipitation caused by the passage of Tomas were not spared the road network.
A river Salée, the national is submerged and a deviation is implemented.
Lamentin, the highway is also threatened by the River Lézarde.

[GCANE]

Looks like a number of high rain-rate hot towers fired last night.

A very good chance now for RI in the next 24 hrs.

[HURAKAN]

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