Texas Winter 2012-2013

[iorange55]

So, we really don't know much more than we did yesterday! We do know the general timing and we know there will be a storm, but where will the storm track end up...and when will the cold air arrive? It's safe to assume that the models are being a little slow with the cold.

Tonight's runs should be interesting.

[Portastorm]

King Euro has spoken about the potential Boxing Day storm with his 12z operational run. As best as I can tell viewing this low resolution version ... a little less suppressed low track and a bit drier than the 0z run, but he's still further south than what the GFS is showing.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[dhweather]

Once the system comes into the CONUS and they can sample it for actual data, I suspect the forecast will clear up.

[wxman57]

King Euro has spoken about the potential Boxing Day storm with his 12z operational run. As best as I can tell viewing this low resolution version ... a little less suppressed low track and a bit drier than the 0z run, but he's still further south than what the GFS is showing.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

12Z Euro high-res is in through noon Christmas Day on my workstation. Shows snow (not heavy) in the TX panhandle spreading eastward. 12Z GFS has an inch of snow in Houston January 4th. Not inclined to believe a model that can't get it right more than 3-4 days out in this pattern.

P.S.
Euro now in through 09Z the 26th. Has about 5mm liquid (1-2" snow) bullseye near Longview, TX extending eastward through Shreveport and Monroe then NE to TN. Nothing in Dallas but a trace.

[iorange55]

Thanks for the information, wxman! Packing my bags and heading to Longview!

I kid, I kid.

[Ntxw]

Yep 12z Euro is showing what the GFS did a couple days ago, Louisiana-Miss snow

[gboudx]

Thanks for the information, wxman! Packing my bags and heading to Longview!

I kid, I kid.

We'll be passing thru Shreveport and Longview on the way back home on the 26th. If it keeps showing this, the route may have to change to Houston, then up 45. Few days to go before making that decision.

[Ntxw]

What would this be? About 40% of the country? And some thought it was going to be like last year! No chance!





Not only do we have way more cover, a lot of it is thick.

[PineyWoods]

12Z Euro high-res is in through noon Christmas Day on my workstation. Shows snow (not heavy) in the TX panhandle spreading eastward. 12Z GFS has an inch of snow in Houston January 4th. Not inclined to believe a model that can't get it right more than 3-4 days out in this pattern.

P.S.
Euro now in through 09Z the 26th. Has about 5mm liquid (1-2" snow) bullseye near Longview, TX extending eastward through Shreveport and Monroe then NE to TN. Nothing in Dallas but a trace.

Do your maps show the western edge of the snow line? Would be nice to see a little of that here in Tyler.

[Turtle]

Thanks for the information, wxman! Packing my bags and heading to Longview!

I kid, I kid.

Lol I am at Longview right now! Can't wait for the snow!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Longview HS grad... heading there tomorrow for Christmas as my parents just moved back there.

I pray you are correct.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 do you happen to have access to the Ukmet precips beyond 72 hours?

[wxman57]

12Z Euro high-res is in through noon Christmas Day on my workstation. Shows snow (not heavy) in the TX panhandle spreading eastward. 12Z GFS has an inch of snow in Houston January 4th. Not inclined to believe a model that can't get it right more than 3-4 days out in this pattern.

P.S.
Euro now in through 09Z the 26th. Has about 5mm liquid (1-2" snow) bullseye near Longview, TX extending eastward through Shreveport and Monroe then NE to TN. Nothing in Dallas but a trace.

Do your maps show the western edge of the snow line? Would be nice to see a little of that here in Tyler.

It's actually centered more toward Tyler than Longview. I wouldn't make any plans based on today's runs. Maybe by Sunday...

[wxman57]

Wxman57 do you happen to have access to the Ukmet precips beyond 72 hours?

Nope.

[PineyWoods]

12Z Euro high-res is in through noon Christmas Day on my workstation. Shows snow (not heavy) in the TX panhandle spreading eastward. 12Z GFS has an inch of snow in Houston January 4th. Not inclined to believe a model that can't get it right more than 3-4 days out in this pattern.

P.S.
Euro now in through 09Z the 26th. Has about 5mm liquid (1-2" snow) bullseye near Longview, TX extending eastward through Shreveport and Monroe then NE to TN. Nothing in Dallas but a trace.

Do your maps show the western edge of the snow line? Would be nice to see a little of that here in Tyler.

It's actually centered more toward Tyler than Longview. I wouldn't make any plans based on today's runs. Maybe by Sunday...

Thank you. We actually are here in Tyler but have family coming in from Denton and San Antonio. Thanks again

[Ntxw]

Of course all this if we survive tomorrow! Well actually tonight since Tahiti will be first to the 21st.

Edit: Actually it's already the 21st over there (Fiji,New Zealand, and Australia)

[Rgv20]

Wxman57 do you happen to have access to the Ukmet precips beyond 72 hours?

Does the UKMET precip forecast goes beyond 72hrs? Im not sure it does..

[Ntxw]

Does the UKMET precip forecast goes beyond 72hrs? Im not sure it does..

I'm sure it does too, but it's very difficult to get anything for free from them!

[Rgv20]

Does the UKMET precip forecast goes beyond 72hrs? Im not sure it does..

I'm sure it does too, but it's very difficult to get anything for free from them!

Today everything is a business! Good thing that Accuweather Pro has some great data of the ECMWF. Weatherbell has some great Model data too

Regarding the Christmas/Post Christmas storm the Operational and Ensemble Runs are still having a hard time forecasting....I suggest people dont get too caught up on any particular run just yet..

[wxman57]

...snip...

Regarding the Christmas/Post Christmas storm the Operational and Ensemble Runs are still having a hard time forecasting....I suggest people dont get too caught up on any particular run just yet..

That's what I've been saying. Perhaps by the 12Z Sunday model runs there will be good model agreement and we will have higher confidence where any snow might fall. For now, treat each model run as "interesting", but don't believe it.