ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[robbielyn]

Its not stopping its just wrapping around a closed center its forming.

[boca]

Could that shortwave in the plains actually sharpen the trough along the east coast?

It is definitely a possibility. It could be that shortwave could be stronger than what the other models outside the GFS may have intially had analyzed. Looking at satellite imagery, that shortwave looks rather decent.

Did you see how fast that shortwave is moving and its moving ESE and it looks like it could affect the dteering pattern of 96L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-avn.html

[HouTXmetro]

I'm starting to think the GFS was on to something. Just looking at the totality of things such as set up and current positioning. Starting to have a hard time believing this goes to far west. just my unprofessional opinion.

[crimi481]

Based on NHC position of ther Low (clicking on "Fronts" tab) - and Sat observation...
The Low may be reforming/tucking in approx 30 miles to the E.S.E of NHC plot?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[Hurricaneman]

Based on NHC position of ther Low (clicking on "Fronts" tab) - and Sat observation...
The Low may be reforming/tucking in approx 30 miles to the E.S.E of NHC plot?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

These possible center relocations are going to give the NHC headaches and I personally think this is going to be farther east than best track puts it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ivanhater]

Thunderstorms are starting to wrap around the northern circulation from the east...much closer to the center...certainly organizing at the moment.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can someone please post the best track for me?

[pgoss11]

I'm starting to think the GFS was on to something. Just looking at the totality of things such as set up and current positioning. Starting to have a hard time believing this goes to far west. just my unprofessional opinion.

Yes..I have to agree with you. That short wave diving SE in the plains is really going to affect the eventual path. I can't see ths hitting Texas, but I'm not a professional and there are probably a few more surprises in store.

[crimi481]

Winds picking up here in S.W. Florida -as bands coming up from south
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

Can someone please post the best track for me?

Here you go.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Rgv20]

Looking good this morning....gotta be at least a TD.

[northjaxpro]

Could that shortwave in the plains actually sharpen the trough along the east coast?

It is definitely a possibility. It could be that shortwave could be stronger than what the other models outside the GFS may have intially had analyzed. Looking at satellite imagery, that shortwave looks rather decent.

Did you see how fast that shortwave is moving and its moving ESE and it looks like it could affect the dteering pattern of 96L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-avn.html

I first started tracking that system on Thursday night. That shortwave triggered severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the Dakotas yesterday and last night. As you pointed out, it is moving down on the northwest flow sliding down the back side of the Intermountain Ridge. This piece of energy to me appears to be very sufficient enough where it could amplify the trough just a bit more in the next 36-48 hours. I think the GFS may have seen this all along and it continues to hold steadfast to its solution.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looking good this morning....gotta be at least a TD.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... LF_vis.jpg

NOTE: I do not own the SAT image.
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Is this the main LLC, or center?


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

26N-88W at this moment.

[ROCK]

IMO, that is a TD,.....center still exposed. Would like to see a CDO form if shear would let up...looks to be drifting west now...

[Hurricaneman]

The problem with this system is that the mid level low is about 100 miles east of the surface low which will prohibit strengthening

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[boca]

IMO, that is a TD,.....center still exposed. Would like to see a CDO form if shear would let up...looks to be drifting west now...

You are correct its drifting west it will be interesting which model actually is right after all said and done

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ECMWF has better track record so "favoring that".

[Weatherfreak000]

ROCK, I agree but with a CDO it would certainly get quite organized. Should just meander for a while I would think. My gut is telling me LA/TX border, obviously no forecast.

[Ivanhater]

That little spiral is rotating around the bigger low...the vort is moving SW currently as it rotates around