ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

Oh you are so funny. I will give you your due, you did nail Ike landing within 10 miles. Oh how the Summer wakes up the Heat Miser. Sigh....LOL

....too much (lol)
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbfgVEk-mxQ[/youtube]

[TheStormExpert]

The weather too has been pretty crazy over the past several years so you never seem to know whats going to happen anymore.

[MGC]

Would you get on an airplane if it had a 2% chance of crashing? Never know when the 2% is going to pop-up.....same with tropical cyclones. That is why you have to be ready from June to November. Looking at the 5pm forecast track the NHC just put out, I'd say the odds of Dorian paying a visit somewhere in the USA are increasing....now I'm not saying that will happen. I'm going to hold off until the models get the data from the Gulfstream....Dorain is still nearly a week away from Florida and if it turns to the west sooner it might visit the islands first. Looks like the cyclone will be in favorable conditions to slowly intnesify the coming days, waters are warming up, little shear and the dry air to the north don't look to be a big problem. The ULL north of PR looks to be shearing out so shear there might relax a bit in the coming days.......MGC

The above it the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[chaser1]

hmmm, what about Hurricane David in '79? (Well, not the best example 'cause it did skirt Palm Beach I believe)

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM rolling in....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow: hmmm, what about Hurricane David in '79? (Well, not the best example 'cause it did skirt Palm Beach I believe)

Hurricane David did make landfall in Palm Beach

[Canelaw99]

I would feel much better if those models were that tightly clustered curving, NOT heading west.

OT: Thanks for all the insight, model posting, analysis, etc. you all do. I'm frequently on my phone, not signed in, so I don't post often, but you guys all get me through the hurricane season.

If the models continue at WNW to 75W and then begins a recurve it will be a difficult for Dorian to miss SFL IMO...

I'm inclined to agree with you, which is why I would love to be seeing the clustered recurves already LOL

[abajan]

Climatology would've favored a recurve for Ike over what crazy track it took knowing how far north it got in latitude north of the NE Caribbean.

Exactly. It's the current synoptic setup that's really important. Look at what Hurricane Lenny did in 1999. Would we have said that since no cyclone in that area has ever gone from west to east, there's 0% of a chance of it doing that?

[AtlanticWind]

new GFS takes dorian south on Puerto rico.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_41.png

[gatorcane]

new GFS takes dorian south on Puerto rico.

Nearly the same track as 12Z, maybe a little south:

[AtlanticWind]

Anything is possible but I find it unlikely the GFS 18z track will verify.

[MGC]

Models will flip-flop until the Gulfstream data is included in the runs......MGC

[Hurricaneman]

new GFS takes dorian south on Puerto rico.

Nearly the same track as 12Z, maybe a little south:

http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/288/ir6k.png

This is a distinct possibility and it would probably have a much better environment south of the islands so this could end up being bad news as the models seem to be trending that way

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

A post earlier today from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan on Twitter:

"Dorian probably doesn't have the 60mph winds NHC is giving it, but it's surviving the coldest water of its life today. SSTs warm after today."
@ 9:12am 7/25/13

It wasn't an SST problem today. SSTs do not cause decoupling. It is a shear problem

[SapphireSea]

It seems that some models continue to show this decoupled as there is a big discrepancy between the vorticity at 850mb,750mb, and 500mb for the system in some cases its non existant at 500mb and removed up to 100 miles from the 850mb. Looks like most models shifted left and faster due to this weaker state the storm will be staying in. One will have to see what the improved SSTs can do for the system down the road.

[BigB0882]

A post earlier today from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan on Twitter:

"Dorian probably doesn't have the 60mph winds NHC is giving it, but it's surviving the coldest water of its life today. SSTs warm after today."
@ 9:12am 7/25/13

It wasn't an SST problem today. SSTs do not cause decoupling. It is a shear problem

That's true but he was just making a remark about surviving the cold waters today and entering warmer waters after that. He never said anything about the problems today being from SSTs. What is he said is 100% true and valid. What you said is 100% true and valid. I am sure Mr. Cowan is well aware of the the shear and what problems it caused Dorian today.

[TheStormExpert]

Models will flip-flop until the Gulfstream data is included in the runs......MGC

When will that be?

[Blown Away]

When does the NHC consider the GFS track?? The 18z GFS looks like it bumps south of NHC error cone?

[TheStormExpert]

new GFS takes dorian south on Puerto rico.

Nearly the same track as 12Z, maybe a little south:

http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/288/ir6k.png

This is a distinct possibility and it would probably have a much better environment south of the islands so this could end up being bad news as the models seem to be trending that way

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

For FL this would be a good thing most likely though, isn't there a weakness though off the East coast at time it dives WSW to go south of the islands?

[BigB0882]

I don't know if I believe that the models will necessarily latch onto one solution just because the Gulfstream data will be put into the models. I remember everyone talking about this so many times in the past and it never resulted in the models miraculously knowing what would happen beyond a certain period. The models just don't know what's going to happen after you get out to so many hours, any amount of data seems unable to change that for the time being.