ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[bella_may]

I don't think cat 2 is even in possible with this, the no name system is making this sloppy sloppy

Have you even looked at the satellite? Cat 2 is definitely not impossible and that's enough to cause widespread power outages and damage. Especially to those of us close and just east of the center

[FLpanhandle91]

no I am looking at everything as possible, floaters, radars, and etc....the system doesn't look good, max winds at 50 mph right now, I am going to say cat 1 , max winds 80-85 mph its a sloppy system so many people won't see winds that high...

Have you experienced 80-85mph sustained winds? That causes significant damage. People like my family and I are lined up to take the east part of this storm in the Florida panhandle.

[galaxy401]

no I am looking at everything as possible, floaters, radars, and etc....the system doesn't look good, max winds at 50 mph right now, I am going to say cat 1 , max winds 80-85 mph its a sloppy system so many people won't see winds that high...

We are clearly looking at different things here.

You have been repeating your same point over 5 times already.

[BYG Jacob]

no I am looking at everything as possible, floaters, radars, and etc....the system doesn't look good, max winds at 50 mph right now, I am going to say cat 1 , max winds 80-85 mph its a sloppy system so many people won't see winds that high...

Meanwhile, in reality, Nate continues to reorganize his core, and is over the warmest waters in the Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

nice long curved band trying to wrap around the center the last couple hours... if it closes off then some pretty quick deepening could occur.

[txwatcher91]

no I am looking at everything as possible, floaters, radars, and etc....the system doesn't look good, max winds at 50 mph right now, I am going to say cat 1 , max winds 80-85 mph its a sloppy system so many people won't see winds that high...

And what if this system undergoes RI and the pressure drops 30-40mb by landfall in the 960mb range with cat 2/3 winds? Satellite high res is showing rapidly improving banding and convection firing over the system, during DMIN nonetheless. Tonight this will explode and we will likely be looking at a rapidly deepening hurricane as this approaches landfall.

[xironman]

This is the place to watch

[bob rulz]

Went ahead and put up the shutters and put away the patio furniture. These things sometimes have a bad habit of making that northeast turn a little early.

A mass moving in a given direction at the projected speed of some 20mph, will have a very difficult time making a sudden turn. The turn will be more gradual (less sharp), but timing will be critical, obviously.

A hurricane of any size and any intensity can make a hard turn. Remember Irma "bouncing" off the coast of Cuba or Maria taking a hard hard right turn off the coast of North Carolina.

[BYG Jacob]

nice long curved band trying to wrap around the center the last couple hours... if it closes off then some pretty quick deepening could occur.

It probably will, Nate is over jet fuel right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Went ahead and put up the shutters and put away the patio furniture. These things sometimes have a bad habit of making that northeast turn a little early.

A mass moving in a given direction at the projected speed of some 20mph, will have a very difficult time making a sudden turn. The turn will be more gradual (less sharp), but timing will be critical, obviously.

A hurricane of any size and any intensity can make a hard turn. Remember Irma "bouncing" off the coast of Cuba or Maria taking a hard hard right turn off the coast of North Carolina.

pretty sure he meant because of its forward speed.. both IRMA ans MAria were moving slow..

[stormlover2013]

I just feel the ingredients isn't there right now to develop quickly, now lets be honest we all feel it will get to a low cat 1 so 45 mph to 75 is pretty good development I just don't see it getting to a cat 2 like some peeps are saying.

[bob rulz]

A mass moving in a given direction at the projected speed of some 20mph, will have a very difficult time making a sudden turn. The turn will be more gradual (less sharp), but timing will be critical, obviously.

A hurricane of any size and any intensity can make a hard turn. Remember Irma "bouncing" off the coast of Cuba or Maria taking a hard hard right turn off the coast of North Carolina.

pretty sure he meant because of its forward speed.. both IRMA ans MAria were moving slow..

Does speed matter either? Charley was going about 20mph when it made its unexpected early turn.

[LarryWx]

I just feel the ingredients isn't there right now to develop quickly, now lets be honest we all feel it will get to a low cat 1 so 45 mph to 75 is pretty good development I just don't see it getting to a cat 2 like some peeps are saying.

I don't know why you are sort of getting blasted here. You're just giving your opinion like anyone is allowed to do.

[bob rulz]

I just feel the ingredients isn't there right now to develop quickly, now lets be honest we all feel it will get to a low cat 1 so 45 mph to 75 is pretty good development I just don't see it getting to a cat 2 like some peeps are saying.

I don't know why you are sort of getting blasted here. You're just giving your opinion like anyone is allowed to do.

Because downplaying the threat of a developing hurricane heading towards a populated area is frowned upon unless there is strong evidence to support their argument.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro and total precip graph. Since the 0Z almost lost the system in the central gulf I think it's fair to say this run is stronger throughout with a similar landfall intensity.

[FLpanhandle91]

I just feel the ingredients isn't there right now to develop quickly, now lets be honest we all feel it will get to a low cat 1 so 45 mph to 75 is pretty good development I just don't see it getting to a cat 2 like some peeps are saying.

I don't know why you are sort of getting blasted here. You're just giving your opinion like anyone is allowed to do.

Mainly because he/she is giving no sort of evidence to back up their claims of minimal strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

A hurricane of any size and any intensity can make a hard turn. Remember Irma "bouncing" off the coast of Cuba or Maria taking a hard hard right turn off the coast of North Carolina.

pretty sure he meant because of its forward speed.. both IRMA ans MAria were moving slow..

Does speed matter either? Charley was going about 20mph when it made its unexpected early turn.

yes it does.. and charley didn't make a SHARP turn..

[BigB0882]

That Euro run is slightly west of the NHC track. Maybe initial landfall is right on but it continues north into Louisiana instead of hooking towards MS/AL coastline.

[txwatcher91]

I just feel the ingredients isn't there right now to develop quickly, now lets be honest we all feel it will get to a low cat 1 so 45 mph to 75 is pretty good development I just don't see it getting to a cat 2 like some peeps are saying.

People never thought Harvey would be a strong cat 4 at landfall or dump 60+ inches of rain. No one thought the islands would be devasted by two cat 5 hurricanes this year but they were. In a season where storms have undergone RI in favorable environments it's not unreasonable to see Nate do the same. A smaller system also will ramp up quicker/stronger and with 36+ hours still over water there is plenty of time for this to deepen into more than a cat 1. A low shear, high SST environment with a core that is organizing very quickly is a recipe for RI as we've seen multiple times this year.

[Aric Dunn]

if this convective pattern keep improving with that type of deep convection wrapping around next recon might find it much closer to hurricane strength..