Texas Fall 2019

[Ntxw]

With all the talk of the big blast, the next couple of days is no slouch either. It's not record cold but more typical of a November cold air intrusion. Highs will be early tomorrow as the mid and late afternoon will fall into the 30s and 40s in NTX. Friday won't crack much more than 50 if that. Good rains showing up in the southern plains radar.

Don't know what the second half of November will bring but got a shot at top 10 or top 5 coldest Novembers.



Today is likely the last "above normal" day for a while.

[austin06]

I don't like the 1976 analog at all. That was a brutal winter. It was my first year in college. I remember hearing that U.S. troops in Alaska undergoing Arctic survival training were having heat exhaustion due to the warm weather there. That wasn't the case across the rest of the U.S. The Mississippi froze past St. Louis. There were chunks of ice passing New Orleans. It snowed in Miami and Key West that winter.

It was January 1977 and I was a high school freshman in Pompano Beach fl. Every person I know that lived in south fl then remembers the day it snowed. There were flurries coming down in the am on the way to school. They let us out early it was so cold. I also remember that despite having heat, my mom (from Michigan) hung blankets inside in front of the floor to ceiling jalousie windows and sleeping in two layers of clothes and it was - still- too cold to sleep. That was a long, cold, winter.

[Brent]

I looked back at the WPC surface archives and the same period in 2014. Indeed it was a 1050mb high over Alberta that crossed into Montana about 1042-1045mb. If the forecast holds true, this coming HP will be a bit stronger and should penetrate into Texas unlike 2014. The prior didn't. Both occurring basically in the same week of November.

If it holds true, a second surge of cold should follow it.

Another interesting note about 2014, if I recall, was a recurving Super Typhoon in the Northern Pacific being related to that Cold Snap. I believe we have a similar setup now with Super Typhoon Halong forecast to recurve towards Alaska.

Yep, this set up appears to be the second coming of the Nurin induced winter blast almost exactly 5 years ago. That one brought snow and mid teens to my house only a couple weeks after we moved in here.

I had just moved to Texas in fall 2014 and remember it well it has so far been the only snowy winter here

Honestly that winter is probably why I've had such high expectations here the previous winters

[gpsnowman]

Maybe, just maybe some back end flurries will fall early Tuesday morning as I drive into work. That would make this November oh so sweet.

[CaptinCrunch]

Been here on St Pete Beach FL all week, now that I'm flying back tomorrow its going to be wet and cold. Upper 70s all week here and the water felt good.

[hamburgerman7070]

Pardon me for not posting pics, but it looks like the GFS is trending the trough a bit more west than past runs. This is positive for us, aiming the HP right down the shoot into Texas. What isnt working out for us is the timing of the moisture. The Low near the baja is trending east and is getting ahead of the cold some, limiting best possible timing for frozen precip

The same thing happened in the late October outbreak. What is happening is climo vs real time forcing. The North Pacific EPO "blob" is even more west than 2013-2014, so we will play this game with the models all winter. Montana is the magnet, not the Dakotas or Minnesota. Guidance will continue to want to go with the west-east flow and initially drive it east-southeast but will correct in real time due to what is happening in the North Pacific that builds stronger HPs and hugging the front range.

The trends are pretty clear and you can see this happening over and over.

https://i.imgur.com/BDm7AqR.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Yx9I5uV.gif

https://i.imgur.com/uC8KUSf.png

It's gonna cold y'all!

Ntxw, i have a few questions. It looks like the mjo will move to the 7,8,1, phases in next few weeks. Do you think it will warm up once that transition happens? Also, they say we are in modoki niño already with western tropical Pacific forcing, for now. How are we in modoki elniño and the sst's don't reflect it? It would puzzle the average weather enthusiasts like myself that knows a little about patterns. Just not sure what to expect from here.

[Ntxw]

Pardon me for not posting pics, but it looks like the GFS is trending the trough a bit more west than past runs. This is positive for us, aiming the HP right down the shoot into Texas. What isnt working out for us is the timing of the moisture. The Low near the baja is trending east and is getting ahead of the cold some, limiting best possible timing for frozen precip

The same thing happened in the late October outbreak. What is happening is climo vs real time forcing. The North Pacific EPO "blob" is even more west than 2013-2014, so we will play this game with the models all winter. Montana is the magnet, not the Dakotas or Minnesota. Guidance will continue to want to go with the west-east flow and initially drive it east-southeast but will correct in real time due to what is happening in the North Pacific that builds stronger HPs and hugging the front range.

The trends are pretty clear and you can see this happening over and over.

https://i.imgur.com/BDm7AqR.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Yx9I5uV.gif

https://i.imgur.com/uC8KUSf.png

It's gonna cold y'all!

Ntxw, i have a few questions. It looks like the mjo will move to the 7,8,1, phases in next few weeks. Do you think it will warm up once that transition happens? Also, they say we are in modoki niño already with western tropical Pacific forcing, for now. How are we in modoki elniño and the sst's don't reflect it? It would puzzle the average weather enthusiasts like myself that knows a little about patterns. Just not sure what to expect from here.

The MJO 7/8/1 phases are not terribly cold this time of year. But it does strengthen the Sea of Okhotsk -> Aleutian low which which is more of a Nino-esque type North Pacific. I suspect we will do something like 2014 where December becomes milder but not full fledged milder since that was pretty much a full basin Nino at that point, climo. We are not currently officially in an El Nino because Nino 3.4 ONI left the 0.5C threshold a few months ago. It has risen since then but Nino 4 has been well above while Nino 1.2 is cold, that's modoki signature. Beyond the semantic definition, ENSO works more like a spectrum, we're kind of somewhere in between warm-neutral and an El Nino for most of the Pacific but at the same time in the far eastern Pacific it is more cold neutral-Nina. Hard forecast for sure, it's not guaranteed this year to simply say warmer than normal predictions will be the easy way out.

[TexasF6]

The Japanese model had a 1069HP rolling down the plains!!! What in the name of sweet potato creme pie kind of cold is that????

[Ntxw]

The Japanese model had a 1069HP rolling down the plains!!! What in the name of sweet potato creme pie kind of cold is that????

That seems a tad unrealistic, it would break the all time HP record set in 1983 for any time of year at 1064mb . It does however paint the picture that the HP system coming is one of the strongest this early in the season for November.

[hamburgerman7070]

The Japanese model had a 1069HP rolling down the plains!!! What in the name of sweet potato creme pie kind of cold is that????

That seems a tad unrealistic, it would break the all time HP record set in 1983 for any time of year at 1064mb . It does however paint the picture that the HP system coming is one of the strongest this early in the season for November.

Ntxw, thanks for the earlier response. I guess the thing i am asking is since the IOD is positive and once the mjo makes it to phases 8,1, and 2, when would it reflect a colder pattern for the winter months if at all, when we get there or if we stay there.

[South Texas Storms]

The Japanese model had a 1069HP rolling down the plains!!! What in the name of sweet potato creme pie kind of cold is that????

That seems a tad unrealistic, it would break the all time HP record set in 1983 for any time of year at 1064mb . It does however paint the picture that the HP system coming is one of the strongest this early in the season for November.

It's actually a 1059 mb high on the 12z run but still impressive for a lower resolution model.

[Brent]

Meanwhile the CMC comes in with all time November records



Also a 2nd wintry threat later in the week

[Haris]

0z euro

[Ralph's Weather]

Meanwhile the CMC comes in with all time November records

I think I got down to 17 on 2014/11/18 both of next week's fronts have that kind of potential.

[gpsnowman]

Good rains moving in. Drove through a steady downpour on the way to work.

[weatherdude1108]

Feeling more like the holidays should feel like.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
433 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
The cold front is accelerating slightly this morning and should enter
our far northern counties as early as 13Z. On this pace, an update to
speed up the front over northern and central counties may be
warranted in a couple hours. By 20Z, daytime mixing should
decelerate the front, but only as it is moving through the final
southern counties in our forecast area. Convection along the front is
shown to be mostly weak by the finer resolution models as the fast
moving front races out in front of the better isentropic lift behind
it. A few lucky areas may see rainfall amounts over 1/2 inch, but
most areas should see just some brief rounds of showers and an
isolated clap of thunder. This is not to say the rain chances are
deceptively too high, only that the periods of rain are not expected
to be persistent as the high PoPs would have you believe. Later today
into this evening, so pockets of heavier downpours could develop with
a few locations seeing storm totals over 1 inches between this
afternoon and late tonight. Some minor flooding could develop with
these modest amounts, as many areas east of I-35 have collected some
good rainfall totals over the past couple frontal events.

Sharp drops in temperature are noted with the fropa over NW TX, but
the areas of rain over West Central TX look to be modifying the
initial shallow push of the front. Thus our current guess for high
temps today will show a good spread from north to south, ranging
from the low 60s to near 80. Rain areas should limit the amount of
colder subfreezing air over the Panhandle from making it this far
south, but winds of 10 to 20 mph through the night will make it feel
plenty chilly. Overcast skies will continue into Friday. Isentropic
lift will continue to generate showers and possibly a clap of thunder
through tonight, with the shower activity expected to gradually wane
after daybreak Friday. The still overcast skies should keep highs in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Mid-level cloudiness remains a presence over most of the area through
Friday night, but some partial clearing is suggested over Central TX
Friday night into Saturday. This could lead to a 15 degree range in
min temps from NE to SW for Saturday morning, and then possibly a
more uniform distribution of max temps as the NE counties get more
sunshine Saturday afternoon. During the weekend period a stationary
disturbance is hung up in light flow aloft over Baja CA, and this
will keep a fetch of occasional broken decks of mid to high level
clouds pushing into TX. A few light showers are even depicted for
Sunday night as the disturbance begins to get drawn into the Polar
westerlies. By Monday, the polar westerlies drop the next high
amplitude trough over the Central US, this time leading to possibly
to the coldest airmass of the autumn season. The interaction of this
trough/front with the Pacific disturbance will be interesting to
watch as a stronger system could lead to a wintry mix of precip in
the wake of the strong front. Typically the high amplitude pattern is
more dominant, and very dry air is shown to be spilling south. So the
current thinking is that rains will clear north-to-south as the
subfreezing line reaches our northern forecast area by daybreak
Tuesday. A near widespread freeze is expected for Wednesday with some
northern areas seeing a hard freeze.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Mid to upper 30s and rain. 1.14” so far.

[Ralph's Weather]

The front is now through Tyler with temps in the low 60s here. I expect near 50 by 5PM.

[CaptinCrunch]

Mid to upper 30s and rain. 1.14” so far.

Sitting here @ Tampa International Airport, it's partly cloudy 86F humidity 53% and feels like 91F.

T-shirt and shorts, I'm beginning to re-think my dress decisions for my DFW arrival....

[Ralph's Weather]

Wile for now my forecast I put out does not officially include a changeover Monday night it is awfully close. GFS and Canadian are borderline for a changeover. Known biases would indicate colder temps, but also a faster end to the precip. That lurking Baja low will wreak havoc with the forecast next week. It may preclude any mid week warmup and if it doesn't shear out then we could see a classic cold core upper low crossing the state with cold surface air in place late next week. Too far out to speculate too much on that potential though.