Texas Winter 2023-2024

[HockeyTx82]

And yes the GFS is still on the train of PV lobe into the west.

FYI Seattle's all time record low is 0. They got a shot

Where does Texas stand ATM?

I sent out some messages to family. Don't want to look like a fool. Did I jump the gun?

[Iceresistance]

Meanwhile for the next system there is a game of chicken going on. Canadian is sticking to it's guns for the northern half of the state and colder, southern outcome against the rest of the model world. Neither is backing down. Either it will take a big "L" or score the coup again.

The GFS and CMC have 3 systems within the next 10 days, we are currently in the first one. The second one is Monday/Tuesday, Add the third and biggest system is next weekend.

12z ICON has a polar front with a monstrous Blue norther at the end of the run.

This is not 384 hour fantasyland, this is within 7-10 days, and this could be dangerous.

[Ntxw]

And yes the GFS is still on the train of PV lobe into the west.

FYI Seattle's all time record low is 0. They got a shot

Where does Texas stand ATM?

I sent out some messages to family. Don't want to look like a fool. Did I jump the gun?

It's not going to be warm with an arctic vortex anomaly sitting over the United States. In fact the cold will probably press into the gulf. The idea it's going to stop at the panhandle, just no. This is an even more impressive pool of cold than what occurred during our ice event last January.

[Stratton23]

That 12z CMC is just absolutely brutal

[Gotwood]

That 12z CMC is just absolutely brutal

It does a better job of bringing the cold to Texas but I think it’s too far east. Also Texas is going to get wrecked with a winter storm just a matter of when.

[txtwister78]

Larry Cosgrove this morning:

The two disturbances behind the “2 ABC” system must be watched because with a huge dome of brutally cold air available, two complications may arise. One will be the threat of an ice storm; overrunning is almost assured in a shallow cold air mass with that subtropical high in Hispaniola. One is a sudden drainage of the Arctic regime into the south central states. Keep in mind that in a situation like this, cAk values almost always head south before going east. TX and the lower Mississippi Valley must closely watch events.

Full article:
https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/05/ ... AvS-3lMgn0

He (Larry) is absolutely correct and it's what I've been alluding to the last few days when it comes to arctic air in the plains. That's just good ole fashion pattern recognition folks and that comes from previous events and understanding model error as it relates to holding back or feedback of these strong Arctic HP's that move south into the plains. Models have always struggled with these further south. We saw it on a big scale in 2021.

I also think some of that can be attributed to the Rockies as well where modeling pools the arctic air and creates an artificial dam and thus the "delay". These events are typically always underdone several days out and they're also faster than the models indicate as mentioned above.

Having said all that, we still have to see the players on the field first before we can say with confidence what the outcome will be in terms of impacts, but assuming that amount of arctic air dumps into the plains as we can all agree models continue to show, it has nowhere to go but south given the anticipated pattern along with the teleconnection signals.

[bubba hotep]

Meanwhile for the next system there is a game of chicken going on. Canadian is sticking to it's guns for the northern half of the state and colder, southern outcome against the rest of the model world. Neither is backing down. Either it will take a big "L" or score the coup again.

At this point, the Canadian is a pretty huge outlier. A GEFS/EPS super ensemble only gives you 5 members that get winter wx into North Texas. It's hard to bet against that at this range. I would think we would already see the Euro trending if the snowier solution of the Canadian was going to verify.

[txtwister78]

[Stratton23]

I like the 12z GFS with a bigger SW shift with the trough, if you can get a shortwave or a piece of energy to round the base of that trough, it could get fun

[orangeblood]

Wxman57 is right and wrong, but it’s on purpose.

Go read his post, he’s talking about next week and I agree with him on next week. He keeps dodging the 15th onward because he knows.

I’ve stated here and on WxInfinity, our timeframe, and that’s weeks 3 and 4 in January. It is coming and it will lock. The week of the 8th will be seasonal to a bit below, except Brent. He may already be in the icebox next week.

I think we need to be cautious about this locking in past week 2...the MJO will be ramping thru the warm phases around that time. Another scenario could be week 1 & 2 cold, week 3 quick warm up and then late Jan into Feb get reloaded with cold as the MJO swings back around

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

In the meantime, week 2 looks loaded with potential and nothing zonal about this flow. The only downside to this 500 mb look is the sub trop jet is shut off/moisture maybe an issue.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704412800/1705147200-A9mLsOLCy94.png

If it meandered through the warm phases I’d agree. It does not and it’s not amplified.

Phase 4,5,6 are the January Warm Phases for us and that's exactly where it begins to amplify

[Portastorm]

I used to be dismissive of the ICON model but it did a great job during the icing event here in Austin in early 2023. So I'm taking notice.

Also, for those of you on Twitter (X) still ... Ryan Maue is really bullish on the mid month Arctic outbreak. He's had some interesting posts this morning over there.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/status/1743316247154917463

[Gotwood]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1704456000/1705104000-l46Yim6yUtw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/apparent_temperature_f/1704456000/1705104000-ILodt5DZln4.png

Seems pretty close to the temps from Dec of 22.

[wxman57]

I’ve been noticing that and even commented on it a few days ago. The flow seems zonal from west to east and not more north to south.

If there was zonal flow, I wouldn’t have just picked up 2.25” of rain this week and you wouldn’t be in line to receive multiple inches of rain over the next few days in south LA. Also, you’re not going to get a zonal flow with a -EPO. Not that hard to figure out.

The zonal flow is precisely why we're getting frequent rain along the Gulf Coast. Storm systems moving rapidly from west to east across the southern U.S. are producing the rain every 4-5 days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow:

I used to be dismissive of the ICON model but it did a great job during the icing event here in Austin in early 2023. So I'm taking notice.

Also, for those of you on Twitter (X) still ... Ryan Maue is really bullish on the mid month Arctic outbreak. He's had some interesting posts this morning over there.

He blocked me. Lol.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile for the next system there is a game of chicken going on. Canadian is sticking to it's guns for the northern half of the state and colder, southern outcome against the rest of the model world. Neither is backing down. Either it will take a big "L" or score the coup again.

At this point, the Canadian is a pretty huge outlier. A GEFS/EPS super ensemble only gives you 5 members that get winter wx into North Texas. It's hard to bet against that at this range. I would think we would already see the Euro trending if the snowier solution of the Canadian was going to verify.

Oh I know it would be something. Like when the Euro OP pulled off Sandy against it's own ensembles. So much will be dependent on track and which part of the PVa takes over.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:uarrow:

I used to be dismissive of the ICON model but it did a great job during the icing event here in Austin in early 2023. So I'm taking notice.

Also, for those of you on Twitter (X) still ... Ryan Maue is really bullish on the mid month Arctic outbreak. He's had some interesting posts this morning over there.

He blocked me. Lol.

Why on earth would Maue block you?

[Ntxw]

Maue mentioned January 1949 being the West's benchmark cold. That indeed was a notable year for them. More importantly I've mentioned in past threads Jan 1949 was DFW's 2nd coldest reading -2F prior to 2021. Still is. There was a snow storm involved. So holding up cold because of SW flow and ridging ahead, nah the cold will win everytime. In about a week we may be talking trash at the GFS and Euro .

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow:

I used to be dismissive of the ICON model but it did a great job during the icing event here in Austin in early 2023. So I'm taking notice.

Also, for those of you on Twitter (X) still ... Ryan Maue is really bullish on the mid month Arctic outbreak. He's had some interesting posts this morning over there.

He blocked me. Lol.

Why on earth would Maue block you?

He didnt appreciate me tweeting him back that some of his tweets were entirely not factual and incorrect. Was years ago.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The CMC and Ikon hold the PV near British Columbia. Different from the GFS and Euro.

So similar to Dec '22, the ensembles are soooooo consistent at 210 hrs out. Shocking to see the control and the ensembles so similar that far out.