Ivan Advisories

Anonymous · #1261 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:30 pm

I think they are underdoing the high personally. It may be stronger than the models think.

Anonymous · #1262 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:30 pm

playing by the rules, YET, as eveident by the last three hours of due west movement, which for each passing hour, will make his turn toward the WNW/NW/NNW, further west, just by the shear speed he is moving. LARGE hurricanes, (aka...Gilbert, Mitch) do not suddenly make abrupt course changes. They are like large cruise ships. They slow/stop and then turn. Right now, Ivan is 1) not slowing and 2) has shown more of westerly component in his movement, over a 3 hour period. 3hrs. x 16-17mph, is substantial. Moving west for 3hrs. x 8-10mph is no big deal for a storm of this size to make a gradual turn.

I originally said on Monday evening, that a landfall somewhere between Pascagoula and Panama City is my prediction. I am sticking with it.

JMO

WeatherNLU · #1263 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:31 pm

That high doesn't look like it is weakening much to me.

Stormsfury · #1264 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:31 pm

nikolai wrote:remember that lbar did the best with frances....

In the deeper latitudes ...

SF

#1265 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:31 pm

nikolai wrote:remember that lbar did the best with frances....

Well, the LBAR implies a sideswipe to Miami.

canegrl04 · #1266 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:32 pm

My memory must be fading.But I do remeber him going thru some shear and it had little affect on him

#1267 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:32 pm

it right over South florida...Boy, I sure hope things change but the models are anting to converge on S Fl. The WV imagery depicts the trough aong the eastern gulf very well and this will protect areas from tampa North. Right now it looks like S Fl is in for a significant event. Let's hope it stays east of the state..

#1268 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:33 pm

skysummit wrote:Something would have to happen to at least slow Frances down. Right now it just looks like it will fool all the models and continue its track on to the west.

Frances, huh?? I know...this week seems like a total repeat of last week :wink:

ilmc172pilot · #1269 Postby **ilmc172pilot** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:33 pm

seems like all the storms this season arent playing by the rules.........just another wait and see I'm afraid :roll:

#1270 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:33 pm

Yeah he was a crazy storm...one of the longest lasting on record. Did all sorts of loops and became a hurricane 3 different times I think. Craziness.

WeatherNLU · #1271 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:33 pm

What in the world are these models seeing? I just don't get it. I give up.

#1272 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:33 pm

Big EZ wrote:playing by the rules, YET, as eveident by the last three hours of due west movement, which for each passing hour, will make his turn toward the WNW/NW/NNW, further west, just by the shear speed he is moving. LARGE hurricanes, (aka...Gilbert, Mitch) do not suddenly make abrupt course changes. They are like large cruise ships. They slow/stop and then turn. Right now, Ivan is 1) not slowing and 2) has shown more of westerly component in his movement, over a 3 hour period. 3hrs. x 16-17mph, is substantial. Moving west for 3hrs. x 8-10mph is no big deal for a storm of this size to make a gradual turn.

I originally said on Monday evening, that a landfall somewhere between Pascagoula and Panama City is my prediction. I am sticking with it.

JMO

I just posted same thing, Steve Lyon's also noted that on his 6:50pm
update.

Derek Ortt · #1273 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:34 pm

those are based off of the 18Z GFS fields. They <b>cannot</b> be taken seriously when the GFS is as clueless as it is with Ivan

Anonymous · #1274 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:34 pm

Trough? There is no S to N flow over the Caribbean, its all east to west. Please if you are in the path of these models dont panic.

Stormsfury · #1275 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:34 pm

I'm almost willing to put money down that IVAN crosses SOUTH of 14.5ºN at the 71ºW LONG line ...

SF

B-Bear · #1276 Postby **B-Bear** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:35 pm

Hurricanes--and especially powerful hurricanes--can often endure light shear. But heavy shear will rip the cloud tops off even the most powerful hurricanes.

#1277 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:35 pm

Vortex wrote:it right over South florida...Boy, I sure hope things change but the models are anting to converge on S Fl. The WV imagery depicts the trough aong the eastern gulf very well and this will protect areas from tampa North. Right now it looks like S Fl is in for a significant event. Let's hope it stays east of the state..

Based on his "current" motion & speed he may never make it that far north or east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#1278 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:35 pm

In agreement here. It's waaaaaay too early to call it a "S Florida event" or "CGOM event"

#1279 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:37 pm

I just don't buy the dramatic N movement.

canegrl04 · #1280 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:38 pm

We'll have a better handle on where Ivan is going tomorrow.Watch all the models shift left again :coaster:

Ivan Advisories

I know what the models say, but Ivan isn't.....

Only Bamms Lbar brings

Re: I know what the models say, but Ivan isn't.....

Re: Only Bamms Lbar brings

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