Hurricane Katrina

[drezee]

+186 +133 are those the wind speeds at flight level?

temp and dew point

[JamesFromMaine2]

then which area is the windspeeds?

[StormsAhead]

+186 +133 are those the wind speeds at flight level?

Third-to-last column is the 10-second wind direction/speed.

[WindRunner]

+186 +133 are those the wind speeds at flight level?

Wind speed on the NOAA obs are the last three digits of the last six-digit set. First three are direction, I believe.

[JamesFromMaine2]

202000 2505 08445 10039 -0160 148078 +114 +113 149079 054 004 so for this one 79MPH is the wind speed right?

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 272030
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/2009Z
B. 24 DEG 33 MIN N
85 DEG 23 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2634 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 035 DEG 85 KT
G. 300 DEG 29 NM
H. 945 MB
I. 11 C/ 3062 M
J. 19 C/ 3066 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C08-50
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 108 KTS NE QUAD 2015Z

Significant northward movement now...still concentric eyewalls, but pressure falling fast again.

[cycloneye]

272032
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...KATRINA RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 240
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO
58 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IS
945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[JTD]

double post

[StormsAhead]

202000 2505 08445 10039 -0160 148078 +114 +113 149079 054 004 so for this one 79MPH is the wind speed right?

79 knots

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...SHOW THAT KATRINA IS STILL IN A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL 9 N MI WIDE AND THE
OUTER 45-50 N MI WIDE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN AS HIGH AS
950 MB...WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT
HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE
OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS IN THIS
AREA ARE STILL LESS THAN 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/6. KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD
CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED
AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS
SHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER. THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR.

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE. THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT...
WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
THAT KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST A BIT.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
AND EXPANDED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PARTS
OF THE WATCH AREA.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 24.6N 85.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 24.9N 86.8W 105 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 25.8N 88.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 27.5N 89.6W 120 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 29.6N 90.0W 125 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/1800Z 38.5N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 43.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[WindRunner]

Hmmm 945 in the middle of a cycle. Scary!

SXXX50 KNHC 272037
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 31 KNHC
2027 2417N 08530W 03703 5149 284 065 104 080 065 03599 0000000000
2027. 2417N 08527W 03716 5157 278 064 100 086 064 03605 0000000000
2028 2418N 08525W 03695 5165 269 065 108 080 065 03576 0000000000
2028. 2419N 08523W 03715 5164 259 063 116 072 065 03597 0000000000
2029 2420N 08521W 03793 5158 250 063 112 064 065 03681 0000000000
2029. 2422N 08522W 03787 5176 252 064 114 058 064 03657 0000000000
2030 2422N 08524W 03795 5177 262 064 112 074 065 03664 0000000000
2030. 2423N 08525W 03808 5182 269 059 118 080 061 03672 0000000000
2031 2423N 08526W 03812 5187 274 052 122 050 053 03672 0000000000
2031. 2424N 08528W 03806 5188 288 051 128 052 051 03664 0000000000
2032 2425N 08530W 03785 5187 303 052 124 066 053 03643 0000000000
2032. 2425N 08531W 03776 5184 313 049 120 066 051 03638 0000000000
2033 2425N 08533W 03762 5177 318 046 120 060 047 03630 0000000000
2033. 2425N 08535W 03678 5174 319 046 124 058 048 03550 0000000000
2034 2426N 08536W 03606 5176 323 045 128 064 048 03476 0000000000
2034. 2427N 08536W 03673 5177 325 046 128 056 048 03542 0000000000
2035 2427N 08534W 03622 5193 320 048 132 062 049 03475 0000000000
2035. 2426N 08532W 03637 5200 307 050 126 068 051 03483 0000000000
2036 2425N 08530W 03700 5192 296 047 122 072 048 03554 0000000000
2036. 2424N 08527W 03805 5177 282 052 116 074 055 03674 0000000000

Still SW quad.

[cjrciadt]

202000 2505 08445 10039 -0160 148078 +114 +113 149079 054 004 so for this one 79MPH is the wind speed right?

79 knots

79 knots multiply by 1.151 equals 91mph.

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 272030
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
202030 2507 08443 10032 -0136 150079 +113 +110 150079 053 004
202100 2508 08442 10038 -0114 147076 +112 +104 147076 051 003
202130 2510 08440 10028 -0096 147075 +106 +096 147075 051 004
202200 2511 08438 10026 -0078 148075 +102 +094 149076 050 004
202230 2513 08436 10035 -0061 149076 +104 +089 149077 049 003
202300 2514 08435 10034 -0045 149074 +103 +085 150074 047 003
202330 2516 08433 10037 -0028 147073 +106 +084 146073 045 003
202400 2517 08431 10034 -0013 147071 +106 +086 146072 045 003
202430 2519 08429 10029 -0007 149071 +104 +089 149072 047 004
202500 2520 08428 10032 +0004 149070 +106 +087 149072 052 006
202530 2522 08426 10068 +0018 150069 +107 +107 151071 048 021
202600 2523 08424 10029 +0025 151062 +110 +105 152064 053 016
202630 2524 08422 9983 +0034 150066 +111 +111 148072 051 021
202700 2526 08420 10048 +0057 148072 +115 +109 149074 048 011
202730 2527 08419 10055 +0073 146069 +113 +104 146070 047 006
202800 2529 08417 10016 +0085 147072 +109 +107 147073 046 007
202830 2530 08415 10012 +0097 149071 +105 +105 148072 047 007
202900 2532 08414 10012 +0105 149068 +104 +104 149069 047 008
202930 2533 08412 10014 +0114 149061 +104 +102 150063 046 008
203000 2534 08410 10013 +0126 148059 +103 +100 147059 044 009

79 knots

[cycloneye]

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 272047
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 32 KNHC
2037 2425N 08525W 03902 5171 274 054 116 066 056 03777 0000000000
2037. 2426N 08525W 03997 5180 277 048 106 086 049 03863 0000000000
2038 2427N 08526W 03960 5198 287 048 122 048 048 03809 0000000000
2038. 2428N 08528W 03905 5198 296 049 128 040 051 03754 0000000000
2039 2429N 08529W 03904 5198 301 046 124 050 046 03752 0000000000
2039. 2430N 08530W 03912 5200 311 047 126 052 048 03758 0000000000
2040 2430N 08532W 03903 5199 317 049 134 048 050 03751 0000000000
2040. 2430N 08533W 03871 5190 321 053 130 044 054 03727 0000000000
2041 2429N 08535W 03825 5177 316 051 120 046 053 03694 0000000000
2041. 2427N 08534W 03789 5173 305 052 116 046 052 03662 0000000000
2042 2425N 08533W 03760 5171 299 051 118 048 051 03635 0000000000
2042. 2424N 08531W 03743 5171 288 050 116 054 050 03619 0000000000
2043 2424N 08528W 03726 5175 279 051 116 066 052 03596 0000000000
2043. 2424N 08526W 03745 5176 267 053 114 064 055 03616 0000000000
2044 2425N 08524W 03757 5172 256 053 118 064 055 03630 0000000000
2044. 2427N 08524W 03702 5196 261 047 124 068 049 03553 0000000000
2045 2427N 08526W 03693 5206 269 047 130 068 047 03533 0000000000
2045. 2428N 08527W 03695 5210 278 050 132 062 051 03531 0000000000
2046 2429N 08529W 03682 5214 286 052 136 056 052 03514 0000000000
2046. 2429N 08530W 03657 5214 288 052 136 052 052 03489 0000000000

My turn, I only got 56kts in the SW, but they're headed to the NW now.

[mtm4319]

[cjrciadt]

Wow awesome maps mtm4319!!!!

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 272040
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
203030 2536 08408 10012 +0136 149059 +104 +102 148060 043 005
203100 2537 08407 10011 +0145 148056 +106 +097 149057 042 005
203130 2539 08405 10011 +0152 147055 +109 +098 147055 041 004
203200 2540 08403 10010 +0157 148054 +111 +091 148055 039 004
203230 2542 08402 10010 +0165 149055 +112 +082 148055 040 003
203300 2543 08400 10008 +0171 151053 +112 +084 150054 040 002
203330 2545 08358 10010 +0177 150053 +113 +081 150053 041 003
203400 2546 08356 10015 +0186 148053 +112 +075 148054 040 002
203430 2548 08355 10018 +0193 148055 +110 +075 148056 041 002
203500 2549 08353 10017 +0200 147053 +114 +071 147054 039 003
203530 2551 08351 10016 +0205 148051 +115 +077 147051 040 003
203600 2552 08350 10018 +0212 146052 +118 +077 145052 040 002
203630 2555 08349 10017 +0219 145053 +114 +073 145054 036 003
203700 2557 08348 10013 +0224 146054 +112 +073 146055 036 003
203730 2559 08347 10009 +0227 148052 +113 +090 148055 037 003
203800 2602 08346 10011 +0228 153050 +109 +090 153051 037 003
203830 2604 08345 10012 +0233 150055 +106 +092 149057 033 003
203900 2606 08345 10014 +0238 148059 +106 +094 147059 034 002
203930 2609 08344 10130 +0251 149059 +106 +083 148059 032 003
204000 2611 08343 10952 +0305 143055 +095 +066 143056 032 002

60 knots...nothing big here.

[canegrl04]

COULD BECOME CAT. 4 LATER TONIGHT


Headed for NO at at least a cat 4 . I smell destruction ahead

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 272050
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
204030 2613 08342 11853 +0365 141050 +077 +051 142051 031 002
204100 2615 08341 12288 +0400 142046 +065 +045 142049 032 002
204130 2617 08340 12652 +0434 141042 +061 +035 140043 030 003
204200 2619 08339 13336 +0485 136046 +053 +024 136046 030 002
204230 2621 08337 14046 +0530 133044 +039 +012 133044 030 002
204300 2623 08336 14497 +0565 132046 +028 +011 133046 029 002
204330 2625 08335 14914 +0598 130043 +023 +006 130044 029 002
204400 2626 08333 15491 +0633 124036 +011 +000 127039 029 002
204430 2628 08332 16046 +0664 122034 +006 -006 122035 029 002
204500 2630 08331 16276 +0687 128033 +006 -011 124034 030 002
204530 2632 08329 16651 +0726 135033 +000 -016 137033 025 002
204600 2633 08328 17055 +0758 138034 -005 -027 138035 025 001
204630 2635 08327 17177 +0772 135035 -008 -030 135035 025 002
204700 2637 08325 17227 +0784 133036 -011 -028 131037 025 002
204730 2639 08324 17233 +0789 127039 -010 -028 127040 022 002
204800 2641 08322 17236 +0792 128039 -009 -028 127039 024 002
204830 2643 08320 17230 +0797 131038 -008 -028 132039 024 002
204900 2646 08319 17232 +0798 131038 -008 -028 132038 025 002
204930 2648 08317 17225 +0795 136040 -009 -026 138041 025 002
205000 2650 08316 17222 +0798 139044 -008 -026 137045 027 002

NE quad...