ATL: IKE Discussion

[Deathray]

Looks like Galveston dodged a bullet. It'll just make people feel justified in staying.

Uhh... the flooding has happened quite thoroughly... reverse storm surge will probably work its number as well

I don't know what bullet it has really dodged in all this...

From messages above, it appears the storm surge has run over the seawall quite effectively (assuming that hotel is indeed "protected" by the seawall)

[fasterdisaster]

lele's family is getting hit with the backside right now. They are EXTREMELY lucky that landfall was on the east end of Galv instead of the west end, though they are still in a fair amount of danger.

[Windy]

Looks like Galveston dodged a bullet. It'll just make people feel justified in staying.

Way too soon to know how Galveston fared. Heck, the storm is only half over. Everyone thought Katrina was a fizzle until about mid-day the day after.

[soonertwister]

Looks like severe flooding on Galveston. The parking garage of that hotel is almost under.

Well I know the hotel Jim Cantore was in has (as of half an hour ago) 6 feet of water on the first floor.

Does this mean that the sea wall is broken, or is this from something else???

Don't think so, just that the surge overwashed the wall.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like Galveston dodged a bullet. It'll just make people feel justified in staying.

They have not dodged a bullet. It was a little better than it could have been because the NE eyewall didn't hit but the SE eyewall looks like it will still come through.

I hate being so morbid, but I'd say the majority of casualties are going to occur over the course of half an hour starting in maybe 15 minutes.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like Galveston dodged a bullet. It'll just make people feel justified in staying.

How do you know that when the storm is not even over with and
it's still dark?

[windnrain]

The Katrina problem was only because of a levee failure. Galveston, unlike New Orleans, is not bellow sea level.

[Deathray]

Well I know the hotel Jim Cantore was in has (as of half an hour ago) 6 feet of water on the first floor.

Does this mean that the sea wall is broken, or is this from something else???

Don't think so, just that the surge overwashed the wall.

Making the surge 23-24 feet...?

[HURAKAN]

windnrain, until everything passes you can't say that a bullet was dodged.

[fasterdisaster]

The Katrina problem was only because of a levee failure. Galveston, unlike New Orleans, is not bellow sea level.

I suppose it doesn't matter the entirety of Galveston is underwater right now, they sure dodged a bullet!

[weunice]

I would think if the hotel Cantore is in has 6 feet of water then 23+ feet doesn't seem all that out of the question.

[KLP124]

FWIW, latest RECON finally showing a >20 mile stretch of 80-90 kt SFMR-measured sfc winds off-shore between Bolivar Peninsula and Port Arthur. It seems that residents are very fortunate that Ike made the NNW turn a bit earlier than anticipated, since the right-front quad is considerably stronger than the left-front quad that Houston proper will/is experiencing.

Dropsonde near there showed 118 kt winds at 925mb (350 m ASL). Sfc wind not available. 925mb should be near the max winds at any height (should be stronger than FL), but I'm not sure.

My husband is at home near Winnie and we've 3 trees split as of right now. Sounds like there's more on the way.

[WxGuy1]

Looks like Galveston dodged a bullet. It'll just make people feel justified in staying.

What are you talking about? The people who stayed, unless they were in the hotel, are in grave danger.

In fairness to windnrain, it is true that a landfall west of Galveston would have brought worse conditions to the island. RECON continues to find very strong (80-90kt) sfc winds (w/ dropsonde showing 118 kts at 925mb / 360 m above the sea) in the NE quad, with considerably weaker winds to the west of the center. In addition, the largest surge is likely occurring between Bolivar peninsula and Port Arthur. So, from a conditions standpoint, it looks like it COULD have been worse in Galveston if not for the last-minute turn to the NNW. This is NOT to say it won't be bad or that Galveston came off easy!! There is absolutely no way to forecast a change in the track as small as 20-30 minutes that likely result in billions of dollars of less damage in Galveston and nearby areas. The area where the winds are strongest and surge is highest is much, much less populated than the GALV. and Houston areas.

[fasterdisaster]

Convective burst on the west/back side of Ike right now.

Well that's not good news. It looks like the red band will circulate to the south eyewall right as that hits Galveston. I sure hope people haven't ventured outside, thinking the worst is over, because I don't think what we saw before the eye came ashore was the worst.

[CajunMama]

Do we have any members in Baytown? Because right now it looks like they'll be getting those 110-115 mph sustained winds (and yes I did say 115 just to spite you )

TexasSam is from baytown. I can't think of any others off the top of my head.

[Stormcenter]

The Katrina problem was only because of a levee failure. Galveston, unlike New Orleans, is not bellow sea level.

What does that have to do with how much flooding or damage Galvaston is
going to recieve from Ike?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Katrina problem was only because of a levee failure. Galveston, unlike New Orleans, is not bellow sea level.

I suppose it doesn't matter the entirety of Galveston is underwater right now, they sure dodged a bullet!

How far above sea level is that hotel that is 6 feet of water at? Also, is that a high point???

[Bunkertor]

On my blackberry. In sugar land Texas. Winds are fierce. Finger of god. Power out. Keep us going by staying up with us.

Watching a live feed of a storm chaser driving around Sugar Land. Looks like hell right now.

Link available ?

[Windy]

The Katrina problem was only because of a levee failure. Galveston, unlike New Orleans, is not bellow sea level.

Were you alive when Katrina hit? Katrina's problem wasn't "only" that the levee failed. Many, many, many other communities were wiped out with many fatalities. And nobody knew anything about them until the next day, and in some cases, several days later.

Everyone always pretends to know more than they do, media included. There are large information gaps right now. The gaps are much larger than the data.

[fasterdisaster]

Fox talked to a woman on cell earlier today who said she was going to ride out the storm with her family on Galveston. They're trying to get in touch with her right now. No luck so far.

To be optimistic, I very much doubt the cell phone service is exactly 4 bars in Galveston.