Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST MON AUG 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW AND ITS LOW TO MID LEVEL REFLECTIONS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AN
INVERTED TUTT MAY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTED THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT
LOW WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...THEREFORE
EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH AT LEAST 27/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH VCSH OVER TJSJ...TISX..TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 89 / 20 20 10 10
STT 81 89 79 90 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW AND ITS LOW TO MID LEVEL REFLECTIONS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY...AS A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FA AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TUTT MAY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME EVEN
DRIER AND MORE STABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROBABLY AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIMITED AND
LOCALIZED CONVECTION AROUND EACH DAY.

FOR THE SECOND PART OF SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...THE LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IN THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK
THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 28/17Z WHICH MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 20 10 10 10
STT 89 79 90 78 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion of wave in Eastern Atlantic by Dr Jeff Masters.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving west at 15 mph. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The disturbance could begin to affect the Northern Lesser Antilles as early as Saturday night, though our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict the center of the disturbance will pass a few hundred miles north of the islands. The disturbance could be a long-range threat to Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

[msbee]

Thanks Luis
Focused on Isaac, but still watching East

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...DEEP RIDGE TO DOMINATE REGION THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
THERE IS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO CAMP OUT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BUT THIS APPEARS TOO WEAK TO AFFECT PR/USVI.
THE RIDGE SPANS THE ATLANTIC THOUGH A STRONGER TUTT WILL DIG EAST
OF 40W NEXT FEW DAYS...ONLY STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE FARTHER WEST.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH JUST SOUTH OF 30N WILL
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE
WINDS INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DRY ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE
APPEAR TO BE GOING INTO A RELATIVE DRY PERIOD UNTIL AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED
BUT WILL SEE ABOUT THE ONE THAT GFS INSISTS WILL MAKE A MAJOR
RIGHT TURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...CURRENTLY A STRONG
WAVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DO NOT SEE ANY REASON FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE THAN ISOLATED/
SCATTERED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. MEX GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
SUBSTANTIAL POPS FOR THE WEEKEND FOR TJSJ BUT DROPPED SINCE
YESTERDAY AS IS INDICATES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM VEERING AWAY FROM
PR/USVI.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONT XCP IN SCT SHRA/TSRA NR TJMZ/TJBQ NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS BLO FL150 E TO ESE 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BCMG E 10-15 KT WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 10 10 10
STT 79 90 78 89 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 30%


A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We continue to watch the progress of invest 98L.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST WED AUG 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THU WITH A
TUTT LOW XPCD TO ESTABLISH FRI. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW PRES ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD UNLESS DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC DECIDES TO COME THIS WAY WHICH AT THIS TIME SEEMS
PRETTY UNLIKELY. THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS
THE ERN CARIB SEA THAT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
INTO THE TROP ATLC. IT APPEARS TO ME LIKE A TROPICAL WAVE ALTHOUGH
TAFB IS NOT INITIALIZING LIKE A WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI AND WILL INTERACT WITH RETOGRESSING TUTT TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN SLOPES
AND THE CARIB SEA. THEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT WE GET INTO THE
SUBSIDENCE REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG HEATING AND LIGHT WIND FLOW ISOLD
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST SAT.

WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE TROP ATLC...AN OSCAT/OCEANSAT-2
PASS AROUND 0140Z SHOWED A BROAD LOW JUST SOUTH OF 12N AND 31.5W
WITH A BAND OF 30+ KNOT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS. SO THE SYSTEM IS
GETTING ORGANIZED IN A HURRY DESPITE ITS LARGE SIZE. SFC PRESSURES AT
BUOY 41041 LOCATED NEAR 14.2N AND 46.0 HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY
SINCE 15Z TUE WITH A NORTH WIND NOW INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
STRENGTHENING AND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED BY THE MINUTE. MODELS
SHOW A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NW ATLC OVR THE WEEKEND
WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM TO SCOOT TO THE NW BEFORE REACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN. OF THE
20 GFES ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ONLY THREE SHOW THE SYSTEM PASSING
OVER THE USVI WITH THE REMAINING OTHER RECURVING THE SYSTEM BEFORE
IT REACHES 60W. DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND LARGE
CIRCULATION THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY REACH OUR ATLC COASTLINE CREATING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ AFTER 29/17Z WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH SUN. WW3 SHOWS BUILDING SEAS
SUN NIGHT AND LABOR DAY ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE
IN EAST SWELLS GENERATED BY A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC. NOTE THAT THE MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAVING A
VERY LARGE CIRCULATION THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE A MUCH LARGER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL 34-KT WIND RADII. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS
BUILDING TO 7-9 FT LABOR DAY. THIS IS STILL BEYOND THE 5-DAY IN
THE CWF BUT WILL LIKELY MENTION SOMETHING ABOUT SWELLS AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN THE HWO FOR LABOR DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 90 80 / 10 10 10 0
STT 81 79 81 80 / 10 20 20 10

[Caesarp]

If Invest 98L hits the caribbean islands (leeward islands), when is it forecast to do so?

I am scheduled to leave tomorrow morning for St. Kitts/Nevis and will be there until Tuesday, September 4th.

I'm thinking I may need to cancel and throw away $3,000.00. Can someone let me know when this might hit the caribbean islands (northern leeward group) -- if it does not recurve?

Please post ASAP! Thanks.

[cycloneye]

If Invest 98L hits the caribbean islands (leeward islands), when is it forecast to do so?

I am scheduled to leave tomorrow morning for St. Kitts/Nevis and will be there until Tuesday, September 4th.

I'm thinking I may need to cancel and throw away $3,000.00. Can someone let me know when this might hit the caribbean islands (northern leeward group) -- if it does not recurve?

Please post ASAP! Thanks.

Welcome to Storm2k. I think you got the answer to your question at the 98L thread. But I can tell you here that you can go ahead with the trip,but if St Kitts is threatened, I am sure the authorities there will help you and also the carrier.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 60%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
IMMINENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST WED AUG 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA PROMOTES AN STABLE AIR
MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A BAND OF
MOISTURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS EVENING...INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 35W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE DAY OR TWO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MORE DRY AND STABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH...A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SATELLITE
DERIVED TPW ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED BAND OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THAT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH AND EAST PUERTO RICO AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PUNCTUATED BY ISOLATED
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LONG RANGE...WE ARE MONITORING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
35W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...
THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE NORTHEAST SWELLS AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGE BY MONDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING IN THE TJMZ VICINITY THROUGH 29/22Z...IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. MARINE CONDITIONS
COULD DETERIORATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS POSSIBLE LARGE NORTHEAST
SWELLS REACH THE REGIONAL WATERS GENERATED BY A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 79 90 / 30 30 0 0
STT 81 90 81 90 / 30 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A good discussion this morning about 98L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GET ABSORBED BY A
POLAR TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NW ATLC. ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR
THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRES ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY ATLC RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BEING THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM FOR DAILY CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE CLEARLY
EVIDENT JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN INVERTED
V-SIGNATURE WILL MOVE WWD NEXT 36 HRS STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA FRI. ON SUNDAY AREA WILL BECOME UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ON THE PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE CNTRL
ATLC. MODEL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY TAKES THIS SYSTEM WNW NEXT FEW
DAYS RECURVING IT TO THE NORTH ONCE IT APPROACHES 60W SUN
AFTERNOON. CLOSEST FORECAST APPROACH TO THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
LATE SUN AROUND 450 NM ENE OF ST. THOMAS ACCORDING TO THE GFES
MEAN. NOTE THAT THE POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC LOOKS PRETTY
DEEP AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM TAKING A MORE NORTHWARD
HEADING ONCE IT APPROACHES 20N AND 60W.

RECENT IR IMAGES SHOW THE SYSTEM HAS LOST SOME OF ITS COLD CLOUD
TOPS AND DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID A FEW HOURS AGO. CENTER
FIXES HAVE LOCATED THE SYSTEM IN THE VCNTY OF 14N AND 41W. A SHIP
REPORT WITH CALL SIGN C6JE5 INDICATED A SOUTHEAST WIND WITH A
1009.4 MB PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF WHERE NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH MIGHT SUGGEST THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH
NEAR 13.5N. WHILE TALKING TO NHC THIS MORNING WE THINK THIS IS A
BAD OBS AS IT DOES NOT FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FIXES
AND/OR MODEL FIELDS. ANYWAY...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY
NEAR BUOY 41041 IN ABOUT 12-18 HRS AND SHOULD GIVE US MORE INFO ON
THE LOCATION...MIN PRES AND WIND FIELD. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST SWELLS WITH 6-8 FT SEAS SUN NIGHT
AND MON ACROSS ATLC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST AND TNCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AFTER 30/17Z WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH SUN BUILDING 6-8 FT SUN NIGHT
POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT IN EAST SWELLS ACCORDING TO LATEST WW3. SMALL
CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY SUN NIGHT AND MON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 20 0 10 0
STT 81 80 81 80 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO up to near 100%

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

CAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NUMBER 12 BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 12 IS ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. ITS
CURRENT TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 430 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AT ITS CLOSEST POINT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO AND
DOWNSTREAM FROM SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX THIS AFTERNOON. SO
FAR TOPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED BY DRIER AIR AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO
LESS THAN 25 KFT. WITH EASTERLY FLOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT WEST.
MOST SHOWERS OVER LAND WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL INCREASE HOWEVER AND MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS PATTERN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WHEN TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE MOVES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

NOTE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 12 WAS DECLARED AT 30/15Z
WITH 35 MPH WINDS AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO HURRICANE
LESLIE BY SUNDAY WHEN IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. THE HURRICANE
CENTER NOTED THAT THIS IS THE SECOND EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE
12TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON RECORD.

THE GREATEST EFFECT FROM THE PASSAGE OF LESLIE WILL BE INCREASING
SEAS IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THESE SEAS MAY REACH 10 TO 14
FEET. AS THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL ALSO SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

AFTER LESLIE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AND THE TRADE
WINDS WILL RESUME LATER IN THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL THERE WILL BE
ONLY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS IN THE WEST AND
THE EARLY MORNINGS ON THE NORTHEAST COASTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL ACTIVITY IS FORESEEN DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES XCP FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
ISOLD SHRA...OR PSBL TSRA AT TJMZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BELOW
FL100 TO BE E 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN SEAS FROM TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE LESLIE WILL INVADE THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS SITUATION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 88 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 89 79 90 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 45.3W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...LESLIE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 46.8W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES