ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Still looks pretty impressive cycloneye, the thing I'm seeing though is the NW quadrant isn't all that impressive compared to the other sides, once again probably a result of shear I suppose.

[Vortex]

6Z GFDL very concerning for folks in South florida. Further SW then the 00z run and implies a direct hit or very close to the SE Florida coastline.

[HURRICANELONNY]

This is not the model discussion. That's one up. Anyways. As I said earlier. When the models show a hit in your area this far out. No hit. My landfall guess is fish.

[KWT]

Its not likely to be a fish, a hit on any island IMO is not a fish and this is going to at least be a big threat to the Turks and Caicos and also probably the Bahamas islands as well...

[greels]

Thank you for your input about this not being a "fish."

I think folks sometimes forget that we in the Islands are indeed, land.

I know how folks get concerned about hits to the US coasts and mainland, but we matter too.

There are quite a few Americans living here in the Turks & Caicos as well as other other sister islands.

[Vortex]

6Z Nogaps further sw and across Cuba implying a GOM threat

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008090406

[HURAKAN]

Very small eye.

[cycloneye]

6Z Nogaps further sw and across Cuba implying a GOM threat

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008090406

Posted at the wrong thread.

[KWT]

Very small eye, seems to be holding on IR and Microwave better then what it appears on Vis imagery so I'm guessing any cloud cover over the eye is low stuff, still looks like a very impressive hurricane there Hurakan, still looks like a cat-4 to me on that imagery.

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 SEP 2008 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 22:51:50 N Lon : 56:10:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 935.4mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURRICANELONNY]

Ike is starting to feel Hanna as per loop. When Hanna moves out will see what holds.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[cycloneye]

BEST TRACK update at 12:00 UTC downgrades the winds 5kts,down to 120kts:

AL, 09, 2008090412, , BEST, 0, 230N, 564W, 120, 938, HU,

[Sabanic]

FWIW to folks in this area once again this morning Dr. Bill Williams at USA stressed the importance of everyone along the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on Ike. He said timing would be everything, and that he felt there was a strong possibility still that Ike could enter the GOM.

[Sanibel]

6Z GFDL very concerning for folks in South florida. Further SW then the 00z run and implies a direct hit or very close to the SE Florida coastline.

Thank you. This is what I have been posting since last night. GFDL was very accurate concerning the southwest dip of Gus. Since we have another SW dip it could be catching it correctly like with Gus. If so Florida is in much different shape than the NHC track. You can throw out the UKMET type right outliers since they have already failed from what Ike is currently doing. If Ike takes a deep dive SW under the deep layer ridge it could push the whole recurve deal further west - maybe.

[boca]

FWIW to folks in this area once again this morning Dr. Bill Williams at USA stressed the importance of everyone along the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on Ike. He said timing would be everything, and that he felt there was a strong possibility still that Ike could enter the GOM.

Who is Dr. Bill Williams?

[bucman1]

Two questions:

1.What are the possiblilities of a Donna oor West Coast scenario?

2.Ike being very small-what would make it grow in size?

[Sabanic]

FWIW to folks in this area once again this morning Dr. Bill Williams at USA stressed the importance of everyone along the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on Ike. He said timing would be everything, and that he felt there was a strong possibility still that Ike could enter the GOM.

Who is Dr. Bill Williams?

Boca he is a very well known and respected Meteorologist, Teacher, and Hurricane expert who is at the University of South Alabama. He has done numerous studies, books, and DVDs on hurricanes and has been forecasting them here in this area since Frederic in '79. He is known for stating things as they are, and never overdoes his forecasts. He will say early in the game if a storm is a possible threat, and has been correct many more times than not, so people here really do pay attention to what he says. If he thinks there is a possibilty of a storm threatening us here people listen.

[KWT]

Sanibel, most of the models that have a good grip on the strength of Ike take this WSW at least for a little while, the ECM does that as does the hurricane models.

Anyway I think the 120kts estimate from the NHC looks about right for now, the eye isn't clear but any cloud cover appears to be at lower levels looking at the IR right now.

[Sanibel]

1.What are the possiblilities of a Donna or West Coast scenario?

Crystal ball question. I live in the Donna track and I'm not worried since the consensus is solid on a lift north near Florida. There's an evolving ridge scenario ahead that is very hard to judge in advance. However Hanna is going right where NHC said it would, so this should make the prior to Florida curve more credible.

Even the GFDL curves up after dipping down towards Cuba. I interpret the 06Z GFDL as recurving up in front of Florida and staying offshore.


Disclaimer: Info is from an internet website poster and not based on any scientific background or knowledge.

[jlauderdal]

This is not the model discussion. That's one up. Anyways. As I said earlier. When the models show a hit in your area this far out. No hit. My landfall guess is fish.

huh, your landfall is a fish