Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[centuryv58]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/04/the-u-s-coast-is-in-an-unprecedented-hurricane-drought-why-this-is-terrifying/

A study published by the American Geophysical Union in 2015 said the lack of major hurricane landfalls boiled down to dumb luck rather than a particular weather pattern. “I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” said study lead author Timothy Hall from NASA.

[What’s driving our major hurricane landfall drought? Study says it’s just dumb luck.]

A “recurring” area of low pressure near the U.S. East Coast in recent years may have repelled some storms, argue Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. But McNoldy still believes “luck is really 99 percent of it [the drought].”

This is why I keep harping on those insisting there is some weather pattern responsible for the drought and lack of so called quality storms. A study finds no pattern and some of our best hurricane forecasters still believe luck is 99% of the reason.

I agree with you. It seems to make the most sense. Hard to think that luck--dumb or smart--rules much in the world. Scary to think too.

[cycloneye]

Fiona will have to wait a while.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/761248631814959104

[OuterBanker]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/04/the-u-s-coast-is-in-an-unprecedented-hurricane-drought-why-this-is-terrifying/

A study published by the American Geophysical Union in 2015 said the lack of major hurricane landfalls boiled down to dumb luck rather than a particular weather pattern. “I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” said study lead author Timothy Hall from NASA.

[What’s driving our major hurricane landfall drought? Study says it’s just dumb luck.]

A “recurring” area of low pressure near the U.S. East Coast in recent years may have repelled some storms, argue Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. But McNoldy still believes “luck is really 99 percent of it [the drought].”

This is why I keep harping on those insisting there is some weather pattern responsible for the drought and lack of so called quality storms. A study finds no pattern and some of our best hurricane forecasters still believe luck is 99% of the reason.

Yes, it’s just dumb luck. It seems that we are always in one “cycle” or another. Now in a good cycle. The mid to late 90’s were not so good for the Carolina's, 04 and 05 for Florida. Unfortunately, the bad cycles influence insurance rates. So much so it has made living near the coast almost impossible to afford. After 05 the insurance rates skyrocketed. The good cycle has not dropped them as of yet.

[gatorcane]

Fiona will have to wait a while.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 1814959104

We might see Fiona in the Northeastern Gulf early next week based on model trends.

Another thing is that it looks like we will see more rising air across the Western Atlantic and Caribbean starting next week. Not sure we will need to wait 2 weeks for something.

[ninel conde]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/04/the-u-s-coast-is-in-an-unprecedented-hurricane-drought-why-this-is-terrifying/

A study published by the American Geophysical Union in 2015 said the lack of major hurricane landfalls boiled down to dumb luck rather than a particular weather pattern. “I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” said study lead author Timothy Hall from NASA.

[What’s driving our major hurricane landfall drought? Study says it’s just dumb luck.]

A “recurring” area of low pressure near the U.S. East Coast in recent years may have repelled some storms, argue Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. But McNoldy still believes “luck is really 99 percent of it [the drought].”

This is why I keep harping on those insisting there is some weather pattern responsible for the drought and lack of so called quality storms. A study finds no pattern and some of our best hurricane forecasters still believe luck is 99% of the reason.

I agree with you. It seems to make the most sense. Hard to think that luck--dumb or smart--rules much in the world. Scary to think too.

Could not possibly disagree more. Based on this logic anything happening in weather can be based on "luck". The cali grought is just "dumb luck" but it isnt. Its all interconnected. Cali has a drought because of a persistent ridge year after year which forces a downstream trof over the east. thats not luck. We all know a western ridge=a eastern trof. Also, the wnw flow caused by the west coast ridge has given us weak severe seasons. Again, not luck but a persistent pattern. Luck has nothing to do with a persistent ridge repelling rain from the west coast and forcing a trof downstream. I can also say with 100% certainty if california had averaged normal to above normal rain the last 10 years then florida would have been hit by a cane.

[tolakram]

Could not possibly disagree more. Based on this logic anything happening in weather can be based on "luck". The cali grought is just "dumb luck" but it isnt. Its all interconnected. Cali has a drought because of a persistent ridge year after year which forces a downstream trof over the east. thats not luck. We all know a western ridge=a eastern trof. Also, the wnw flow caused by the west coast ridge has given us weak severe seasons. Again, not luck but a persistent pattern. Luck has nothing to do with a persistent ridge repelling rain from the west coast and forcing a trof downstream. I can also say with 100% certainty if california had averaged normal to above normal rain the last 10 years then florida would have been hit by a cane.

What qualifications do you have to disagree so strongly with not only a scientific based study but also two of the top hurricane researchers in the country? No one said the drought was luck, no one said a trough was luck, what they said was there was no connection to major hurricanes hitting the US. You make this connection with, as you say, 100% certainty. This I don't understand.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/761543044768210944

[NDG]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/04/the-u-s-coast-is-in-an-unprecedented-hurricane-drought-why-this-is-terrifying/

A study published by the American Geophysical Union in 2015 said the lack of major hurricane landfalls boiled down to dumb luck rather than a particular weather pattern. “I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” said study lead author Timothy Hall from NASA.

[What’s driving our major hurricane landfall drought? Study says it’s just dumb luck.]

A “recurring” area of low pressure near the U.S. East Coast in recent years may have repelled some storms, argue Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. But McNoldy still believes “luck is really 99 percent of it [the drought].”

This is why I keep harping on those insisting there is some weather pattern responsible for the drought and lack of so called quality storms. A study finds no pattern and some of our best hurricane forecasters still believe luck is 99% of the reason.

I agree with you. It seems to make the most sense. Hard to think that luck--dumb or smart--rules much in the world. Scary to think too.

Could not possibly disagree more. Based on this logic anything happening in weather can be based on "luck". The cali grought is just "dumb luck" but it isnt. Its all interconnected. Cali has a drought because of a persistent ridge year after year which forces a downstream trof over the east. thats not luck. We all know a western ridge=a eastern trof. Also, the wnw flow caused by the west coast ridge has given us weak severe seasons. Again, not luck but a persistent pattern. Luck has nothing to do with a persistent ridge repelling rain from the west coast and forcing a trof downstream. I can also say with 100% certainty if california had averaged normal to above normal rain the last 10 years then florida would have been hit by a cane.

To link California's drought to Fl's hurricane drought is not a good link, IMO.
All you have to look is go back in history and look for other long term drought's in California, like 1987-1992 & 1928-1934 to see that it is not a good link to go by.

[gatorcane]

SAL looks in firm control again over the Eastern Atlantic:

[MetroMike]

SAL looks in firm control again over the Eastern Atlantic:

Latest gif of this shows a marked decrease in SAL.

[MetroMike]

where is the season cancel thread? It is ghostly quiet here for August.

[tarheelprogrammer]

where is the season cancel thread? It is ghostly quiet here for August.

I think it is quiet because the Atlantic has yet to wake up meaning nothing to talk about. SAL has cleared up but waves are finding shear, land interaction, and a lack of instability. Models show pretty much nothing up to the last week of August. Lots of warm water but so far nothing to tap into it.

[PTrackerLA]

where is the season cancel thread? It is ghostly quiet here for August.

I think it is quiet because the Atlantic has yet to wake up meaning nothing to talk about. SAL has cleared up but waves are finding shear, land interaction, and a lack of instability. Models show pretty much nothing up to the last week of August. Lots of warm water but so far nothing to tap into it.

By day 10 the latest EURO has most of the MDR under anomalously high pressure. Starting to wonder if August will be very quiet.

[centuryv58]

where is the season cancel thread? It is ghostly quiet here for August.

I think it is quiet because the Atlantic has yet to wake up meaning nothing to talk about. SAL has cleared up but waves are finding shear, land interaction, and a lack of instability. Models show pretty much nothing up to the last week of August. Lots of warm water but so far nothing to tap into it.

By day 10 the latest EURO has most of the MDR under anomalously high pressure. Starting to wonder if August will be very quiet.

Hope you are right, but its only one model run and not the ensembles. Let's check again in a day or so to see if it changes again.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah models are again trending towards more EPAC activity,

[Alyono]

with the Gulf not looking likely, it could be weeks before we get our next system. MJO may be in an unfavorable phase for the next couple of weeks

The Gulf would have produced had it been located a hundred miles to the west as was initially forecast

[TheStormExpert]

with the Gulf not looking likely, it could be weeks before we get our next system. MJO may be in an unfavorable phase for the next couple of weeks

The Gulf would have produced had it been located a hundred miles to the west as was initially forecast

What makes you say that? I wouldn't be surprised if these waves continue to develop further west like Earl did. After all it is already August 7th and if we went weeks without any tropical cyclones it would be considered record quietness.

[blp]

There is an incredibly abnormal high pressure in the Atlantic this year. I went back 30 years and this appears the worst by far. Last year had the worst shear ever in the Carribean and this year might be the worst for High Pressure. Euro is so far correct in its pre season projection.

Things can change and not an expert but it appears to me this will impact the season especially in the MDR.

[stormlover2013]

So your saying the gulf is done??

[stormlover2013]

So your saying the gulf is done??