2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AxaltaRacing24]

Guess there heard me! I’ve been preaching this very same thing.

2004 2.0

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415480766335635457

I wish I didn't see this....
A season that is even remotely above average here on out with steering like that would be nasty.

[crownweather]

And there's more bad news. This is not model noise, but seems to be the real deal.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415528539449806852

Guess there heard me! I’ve been preaching this very same thing.

2004 2.0

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415480766335635457

[Category5Kaiju]

And there's more bad news. This is not model noise, but seems to be the real deal.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415528539449806852

Guess there heard me! I’ve been preaching this very same thing.

2004 2.0

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415480766335635457

That's just terrifying, to put it simply. Hoping that does not verify but if it does, I urge Atlantic coast residents to be as prepared as they can be!

[Shell Mound]

And there's more bad news. This is not model noise, but seems to be the real deal.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415528539449806852

Guess there heard me! I’ve been preaching this very same thing.

2004 2.0

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415480766335635457

Those models still suggest weaknesses beneath the ridge that could allow storms to curve OTS. The ridge looks to be a bit far to the north for landfalls.

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1415500119051575297




Note the weaknesses over the northern Gulf Coast, parts of the Southeastern United States, and the open subtropical Atlantic. There’s plenty of room.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415077466306072578



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415078408099229699



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1415079794425876480



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415082396345507843



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415082947833516036



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1415084125195747332



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1415087399898648578




However, no one has mentioned yet the fact that Atlantic Niños, especially strong ones, tend to coincide with a strong -AMM/-AMO. How is that favourable?

[jconsor]

If anything, the opposite is true. Atlantic Ninos in the current +AMO era (since 1995) have favored +AMM during the peak of the hurricane season. The one exception is 2018, but even that year saw a transition from -AMM in Jun/Jul to neutral by Sep/Oct.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1414305761820389378




Note that the three other years with an Atlantic Nino since 1995 (1995, 1998 and 2016) saw either AMM positive the entire time between Jun and Oct, or a transition from neutral in Jun/Jul to positive by Aug.

However, no one has mentioned yet the fact that Atlantic Niños, especially strong ones, tend to coincide with a strong -AMM/-AMO. How is that favourable?

[Shell Mound]

If anything, the opposite is true. Atlantic Ninos in the current +AMO era (since 1995) have favored +AMM during the peak of the hurricane season. The one exception is 2018, but even that year saw a transition from -AMM in Jun/Jul to neutral by Sep/Oct.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1414305761820389378

Note that the three other years with an Atlantic Nino since 1995 (1995, 1998 and 2016) saw either AMM positive the entire time between Jun and Oct, or a transition from neutral in Jun/Jul to positive by Aug.

However, no one has mentioned yet the fact that Atlantic Niños, especially strong ones, tend to coincide with a strong -AMM/-AMO. How is that favourable?

The main problem, then, is that July 2021 to date seems to be much cooler in the MDR and have more of a -AMM/-AMO than any of the years that you mentioned.




Clearly, 2021 has more of a hurdle to overcome in the AMM/AMO department than any of the other years to date. The -IOD/-ENSO could help somewhat, however.

[jconsor]

Reanalyses are a poor dataset to use for SST. It's best to use a dataset that is designed for ocean temperatures.

NOAA OI SST maps show that of the five years I mentioned that had Atl Ninos and a flip from -AMM to +AMM by peak season, two (2008 and 2019) had July MDR SSTs that were slightly warmer than 2021 to date, and three (1996, 1999 and 2003) were cooler. Note that I use a broad definition of the MDR (10 to 20N and 20W to 90W).

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The main problem, then, is that July 2021 to date seems to be much cooler in the MDR and have more of a -AMM/-AMO than any of the years that you mentioned.

https://i.ibb.co/FBsRY5j/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-15-kl-13-43-25.png
https://i.ibb.co/w4rVwLG/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-15-kl-13-42-30.png

Clearly, 2021 has more of a hurdle to overcome in the AMM/AMO department than any of the other years to date. The -IOD/-ENSO could help somewhat, however.

[jconsor]

Also important to note is that July 2021 SSTs to date are on par with or higher than than the five Atlantic Nino analogs I mentioned in the region where it counts the most for seasonal ACE, from the southeastern Caribbean to the central Atlantic south of about 15N:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5885347841

[SFLcane]

And there's more bad news. This is not model noise, but seems to be the real deal.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415528539449806852

Guess there heard me! I’ve been preaching this very same thing.

2004 2.0

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415480766335635457

Those models still suggest weaknesses beneath the ridge that could allow storms to curve OTS. The ridge looks to be a bit far to the north for landfalls.

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1415500119051575297

Note the weaknesses over the northern Gulf Coast, parts of the Southeastern United States, and the open subtropical Atlantic. There’s plenty of room.

Why are you always trying to go on the contrary even in the face of model support? That ensemble mean look is about as prolific as you can get for landfalls. Obviously depends were the tc forms

[SFLcane]

And it continues…

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1415657147438964743

[Shell Mound]

And it continues…

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1415657147438964743

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1415638932591685634



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1415640937074765827



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415642228253503488

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1415674541662097408




Hmmm...I wonder if the Pacific is trying to rush all of the storms it can generate at once before the more prohibitive effects of the predicted La Nina begin to set in

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1415682061571174400

[AlphaToOmega]

That SOI is looking EXTREMELY POSITIVE.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1415674541662097408

Hmmm...I wonder if the Pacific is trying to rush all of the storms it can generate at once before the more prohibitive effects of the predicted La Nina begin to set in

Why not? It seemed to work in 2017.

[cycloneye]

That SOI is looking EXTREMELY POSITIVE.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

For the members who dont know when you say Extremely Positive, what it means?

[AlphaToOmega]

That SOI is looking EXTREMELY POSITIVE.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

For the members who dont know when you say Extremely Positive, what it means?

It means the 30-day average is extremely positive. The pressure in Tahiti is much higher than the pressure in Darwin, so winds blow from Tahiti to Darwin from east to west. This is indicating strong easterly winds in the Pacific.

[SFLcane]

That SOI is looking EXTREMELY POSITIVE.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

For the members who dont know when you say Extremely Positive, what it means?

It means the 30-day average is extremely positive. The pressure in Tahiti is much higher than the pressure in Darwin, so winds blow from Tahiti to Darwin from east to west. This is indicating strong easterly winds in the Pacific.

Definitely trending towards La Niña!

[chaser1]

And there's more bad news. This is not model noise, but seems to be the real deal.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415528539449806852

Those models still suggest weaknesses beneath the ridge that could allow storms to curve OTS. The ridge looks to be a bit far to the north for landfalls.

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1415500119051575297

Note the weaknesses over the northern Gulf Coast, parts of the Southeastern United States, and the open subtropical Atlantic. There’s plenty of room.

Why are you always trying to go on the contrary even in the face of model support? That ensemble mean look is about as prolific as you can get for landfalls. Obviously depends were the tc forms

@SFLcane - Agreed.... a blatant example of troll-bait. The conversation clearly is focused on modeling that emphasized the potential for increased risk of CONUS and Caribbean landfalls given the orientation and heights of the forecast ridging over the W. Atlantic and CONUS itself. The post suggesting "weaknesses beneath the ridge that could allow storms to curve OTS" lost immediate credibility the moment "the weakness over the N. Gulf Coast was referenced" Inserting any slight weakness over the N. Gulf or possible long wave position centered from the Great Lakes southward is like putting a neon sign over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle's "big coastal butt" that reads "KICK ME". Secondly, referencing any weakness in the Atlantic to suggest the possibility of early recurving storms is silly given the broad general consensus of 2021 being a very active season that will likely result the majority of TS origins to occur west of 40W (especially in light of underwhelming E. Atlantic MDR SST's)