ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jaxfladude]

I posted some of this on the 94L model thread.


Fay may be the 'gift' that keeps giving to Florida.

The GFDL finally does not dissipate 94L, but hits Jamaica with a Cat 3 West-ward moving storm. Checking GFDLs outer grid 500 mb heights on my AccuWx PPV web site, I see that ridging should steer the storm almost due West, Yucatan and then second Mexican landfall. Except, the 500 mb weakness left by Fay wanders West a bit, and then a passing trough in the Westerlies dips down and instead of lifting ex-Fay out, forms a very deep and slow moving trough with its base in SW Louisiana, with a slight positive tilt. The trough seems to try to slowly lift out, and potential Gustav is still about 10º East of the latitude of the trough at 126 hours, but 94L on the GFDL seems to be moving West faster than the trough containing ex-Fay as its anchor seems to be lifting out.

So, speculation, of course, absolutely not a forecast, but it is possible that even after Fay leaves Florida, it may recurve the next system towards Florida or the Northern Gulf.

Thanks for the nightmares....

[Stormcenter]

I have to admit I am impressed with the size and structure of this system.
It has the classic look of an Atlantic Ocean born tropical system.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[flarrfan]

Yeah "only a tropical storm" meanwhile, here in Tally a friend just had a tree fall on the house... and we've hardly felt the storm... a couple of heavy rains and a few minor gusts.

And to think I have people that laugh at me that say I'd bail out of Tally if I knew 100mph sustained would be in town. The trees here would go flying everywhere, and the houses are built like match sticks... not the concrete block of south fla or the poured concrete.

I just hope it never happens.

It already has. http://redcross.tallytown.com/library/k ... -24-01.pdf

from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_(1985)

I was there, at 2717 Bardswood Lane, south of town off Crawfordville Rd. at the edge of the national forest.

[terrapintransit]

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... atrad.html

Looking At this loop, it appears Fay has made it to the gulf...At least part of her.

[Noles2006]

I'm impressed with what I've seen from Fay, so far...

Some nice gusts down at the beach earlier... picking up tons of rain... and branches and trees are going down everywhere.

Going to be a fun weekend!

[Nexus]

Marine buoy off Keaton Beach, FL:



http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... re=0&tor=0

[HurricaneBelle]

I think it can be said that just about every Floridian is suffering from Fay-tigue.

[jlauderdal]

I think it can be said that just about every Floridian is suffering from Fay-tigue.

we has a bigger event today with the flooding in dade and broward than anything last tuesday when it rolled through, fay lives

[cpdaman]

looks like some spots in extreme eastern dade and broward county's got up to 4-6 inches today. with a general 2-4 east of 95 in miami dade.

[dizzyfish]

I think it can be said that just about every Floridian is suffering from Fay-tigue.

How about we all go outside at 6:30 tonight and shout GO AWAY FAY!?

Honestly we really haven't had that much from Fay here but they are talking about coastal flooding tonight. I feel so bad for the people that have been affected by Fay and will continue to be.

Honey, give it up and GO AWAY.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I posted some of this on the 94L model thread.


Fay may be the 'gift' that keeps giving to Florida.

The GFDL finally does not dissipate 94L, but hits Jamaica with a Cat 3 West-ward moving storm. Checking GFDLs outer grid 500 mb heights on my AccuWx PPV web site, I see that ridging should steer the storm almost due West, Yucatan and then second Mexican landfall. Except, the 500 mb weakness left by Fay wanders West a bit, and then a passing trough in the Westerlies dips down and instead of lifting ex-Fay out, forms a very deep and slow moving trough with its base in SW Louisiana, with a slight positive tilt. The trough seems to try to slowly lift out, and potential Gustav is still about 10º East of the latitude of the trough at 126 hours, but 94L on the GFDL seems to be moving West faster than the trough containing ex-Fay as its anchor seems to be lifting out.

So, speculation, of course, absolutely not a forecast, but it is possible that even after Fay leaves Florida, it may recurve the next system towards Florida or the Northern Gulf.

Thanks for the nightmares....

My sentiments exactly jaxfladude!!!!

What are the real possibilities of that scenario panning out? I hope that the chances are slim to none!!

P.S. Welcome Ivansurvivor!

[Cookiely]

Fay looks like a snake with fangs. Kind of wierd.

[caribepr]

In Melbourne (this is from television reports with video) divers were sent out and reported 7 feet of water in some areas where they went to pick up people. Water is somewhat receding. It's still raining here where I am near downtown Orlando but drainage is good in this old neighborhood. Florida continues to build in swamps near lakes (I grew up here so I can say that!) Guess that and people going out and doing stupid things in storms will never change.
My brother in Lauderdale also continues to get bands but they are waning. Reading the *location* of Fay hardly makes sense anymore...it feels like it's everywhere.

[Agua]

Fay looks like a snake with fangs. Kind of wierd.

Cottonmouth. Good eye.

[Stangfriik]

In Melbourne (this is from television reports with video) divers were sent out and reported 7 feet of water in some areas where they went to pick up people. Water is somewhat receding. It's still raining here where I am near downtown Orlando but drainage is good in this old neighborhood. Florida continues to build in swamps near lakes (I grew up here so I can say that!) Guess that and people going out and doing stupid things in storms will never change.
My brother in Lauderdale also continues to get bands but they are waning. Reading the *location* of Fay hardly makes sense anymore...it feels like it's everywhere.

Just like in Deltona where the people who move there have no clue that it all used to be nothing but lakes. Then they wonder why it floods all the time lol

BTW my wife told me that Deltona received 3ft of rain. For such a low lying area as Deltona, that is an outright nightmare. I'm glad I just moved from there (my place was the more rural higher ground) and moved to DeLand

[jdray]

http://www.news4jax.com/slideshow/weath ... etail.html

Slideshow of a waterspout over the St Johns River that ended up taking the roof off of a house in Clay County.

[catastrophic]

here in palm bay, the water here has receded alot quicker than expected at my house. I guess it has flowed into lake Okeechobee, but i head that just 2 miles away from me that the water was deep enouph to have a car float down the road so i got lucky that it receded so quick

day1: the water ended up getting up to the well head that circle of bricks befor starting to recede


today

[tolakram]

...CENTER OF FAY EMERGES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105
KM...EAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

[artist]

that looks exactly like what we received here in north central rural Palm Beach county. Today though the rain has tried to bring the water level back to that first picture again. It hasn't made it but is has gotten close again.

[Agua]

Hmmm... new VDM: 29.41 N, 83.51 W