Winter 2003-04: Near Normal Snowfall in the East

[donsutherland1]

As promised earlier, an update is being provided this month.

A number of factors were considered in refining the amounts, with the biggest changes occurring with respect to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions:

1) QBO switch to West (+) in February or later
2) Hurricane analogs--were re-assessed per Juan's having been confirmed to have been a category 2 hurricane at landfall as opposed to a category 1 storm as initially reported
3) Borderline N to W- ENSO situation
4) NAO proceeding pretty much as anticipated, edge given to somewhat greater tendency to be positive this winter

Updated seasonal snowfall estimates for select cities:

Baltimore: 16”-21”
Boston: 40”-50”
Cleveland: 55”-65"
Detroit: 30”-35”
New York City: 23”-28”
Philadelphia: 19”-24”
Pittsburgh: 40”-45”
Providence: 35”-40”
Washington, DC: 13”-18”

[LMolineux]

As promised earlier, an update is being provided this month.

A number of factors were considered in refining the amounts, with the biggest changes occurring with respect to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions:

1) QBO switch to West (+) in February or later
2) Hurricane analogs--were re-assessed per Juan's having been confirmed to have been a category 2 hurricane at landfall as opposed to a category 1 storm as initially reported
3) Borderline N to W- ENSO situation
4) NAO proceeding pretty much as anticipated, edge given to somewhat greater tendency to be positive this winter

Updated seasonal snowfall estimates for select cities:

Baltimore: 16”-21”
Boston: 40”-50”
Cleveland: 55”-65"
Detroit: 30”-35”
New York City: 23”-28”
Philadelphia: 19”-24”
Pittsburgh: 40”-45”
Providence: 35”-40”
Washington, DC: 13”-18”

Don.

I would bring up the Major cities more along the coast. Towards 5 more inches on the overall. Beecause you do know one storm could drop that amount in one shot. Not unless your basing it off of the one storm theory?

[RNS]

Don, Nice job as always...and most definately a good read.

But, i would not forecast the NAO positive this winter, the research by Dr. Mark Saunders (with all do respect to him) is BS, i didint work last year, and it will not this year either. and he got lucky in 2001/02 due to the high solar activity. the seasonally favored phase of the NAO is forced by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (strong cycle ATC = Negative NAO, weak cycle ATC = Positive NAO) our TFF (tropical formation factor) can be used to assess the ATC, high activity would be indicative of a strong ATC and overriding tendency for a Negative NAO. lower than average activity can be used to assess a positive NAO. this hoiwever can only work in seasons where the ENSO is in flux (or somewhere between a moderate La nina and a Moderate El Nino) otherwise the pac signal would override it, and we would not be able to use the TFF as a skillful predictor. the TLF (tropical landfall factor) drew up some very interesting analogs.

our ATC, TFF and TLF analogs all featured a negative NAO the following winte rin at least three of the four winter months. NOT ONE YEAR featured a +NAO in the means for years which matched for all three factors above.

and summer NH snowcover is IMO irrelevent, its the October and November period which such facors become importnat. higher than average snocover promotes a strengthening of the siberian high and leads to a Negative AO in winter. if you recall, as soon as snowcover went thru the roof in middle OCT, the AO tanked as Erica and i expected, and i discussed on WWBB a month ago. the conclusion of OCT saw the third most expansive NH snowcover on record which leads me to think tha that the AO will also be negative this winter, cross this with the fact that it tanked in oct and one can bholster that argument even further. Also NH snowcover is more important to the seasonally favored phase of the Arctic Oscillation and not the NAO.

also we have been experiencing a very wet pattern across the eastenr part of the country which is still presisting. this strongly argues for increased storm cyclogenesis along the east coast (whether the storms come up or go out is another story). also El Nino - west QBO winters tend to favor significant snowfall in the eastner part of the country in February and march.

The only way i could see the NAO being positive this winter is if solar activity should go way up again. then and only then would it be favored given the ATC and the Atlantic SSTA tripole.

dont get me wrong here...im not being critical...as i said you did a very nice job as always, i just wanted to point out some things to you which may be of help.

Great Work!

[donsutherland1]

LMolineux,

You make an interesting point. It is rare that the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England region sees consecutive winters with a blockbuster snowstorm.

There are a number of good ideas out there and variation within those ideas e.g., Weather 53/KA, RNS/Erica, JB, DT, etc. One thing seems common with all those ideas: Winter 2003-04 will not be a rerun of the 2001-02 nightmare. It likely won't be 2002-03 either.

Considerable variation in temperatures appears likely both from analogs and patterns that one has witnessed thus far this fall. I believe decent snowfall is also likey.

I do believe that if I err, it will probably be for being somewhat conservative. I'm most concerned about cities such as Cleveland where Lake Effect Snow could play a significant role--warmer SSTAs at least suggest that the potential for greater LES is there. I believe where my error is greatest (as a percentage of the snowfall estimates) will probably lie out in Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh.

Could you be right about an additional 5". Absolutely.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, RNS.

I absolutely see your point on this. For me the NAO has been almost a toss-up and when I refer to averaging positive, I refer to an NAO closer to neutral than strongly positive. I do expect several significant blocking episodes this winter. Interestingly enough, the hurricane analogs I had used also suggested negative NAO, so depending how the NAO fares during the winter, I might place greater weight on them next winter.

With regard to October, I remember your call for the AO. Great call.

I agree with respect to the wet pattern the eastern U.S. has been experiencing and its implications. With regard to QBO, I believe it will turn West either in February or March, not any earlier than that.

Finally, rest assured, I don't mind constructive comments. Those can only be helpful as one gets a larger picture of things to consider and good ideas can come from anywhere.

Best wishes.

[RNS]

Three things here...the first is that you dont always need to have a long-term pattern which favors a major snow event in order to get one in the major cities...take for example 1982/83...that winter saw next to no significant events in the big cities except for the blizzard of '83.

secondly there have been several winters with a major east coast snow event following a previous winter which featured one. Take for example 1959/60 (two events)...then the following winter of 1960/61, (three events), 1965/66 (one event) and then comes 1966/67 and we two events. 1992/93, 1993/94, 1994/95, 1995/96, and 1996/97 all had one event, (which albeit is a tremendous streak...5 winters in a row with a major east coast event...and the tendency of the pattern in 1992/93, 1994/95, and 1996/97 was not one which would be tremendously indicative of a major snow event).

for those of you that have the kocin snowstorm book, i encourage you go back through it and take a look at these trends...i think you will find some interesting correlations.

my final concern pertaining to this winter is that while we do not anticipate a great deal of snow events in the major cities this winter...our fear is a repeat of events of 1982/83 under different circumstances of course as this will not be a strong El nino winter. but on the other hand it doesent mean that the pattern cant be similar.

[RNS]

thanks don...

you say its a battle between 1979/80 and 1960/61...on this fact i completely disagree...

IMO...1979/80 is a secondary analog at best...and 1960/61 is not an analog at all. sure there have been many similarities between various occurances this fall what went on in those years...but its coincidental.

i know that DT and HM are solid on those years and thats fine...but these day to day similarities in the grand scheme of the unfolding pattern dont mean sh!t. its the longer term pattern (Ie...monthly and bi-monthy trends leading up to winter) which make the most difference.

thats almost the same as saying for example that because it was 51 degrees in NYC on November 5, and it was 51 degrees on Nov 5, 1970 that that the winter of 1970/71 would be an analog...its just not fact. these day to day resembelences are meaningless. If the pattern on the monthly scale looks similar...then and only then should it be regarded. otherwise its little more than coincidence.

[HuffWx]

RNS,

I don't think the overall point was one day matched, so its a lock. FWIW, I have questioned Wx53 because he boasts of his forecast sucess. The best part of KA/53 is they often get the general pattern of the winter correct. The finer details are often off...eg to cool 01-02 despite nailing the snow south of DC and 3 week cold snap and way to low on snow last year in DC..ect..I have a hard time bucking in a sense what KA does, despite having no lcue how he does it.

If 79-80 is second...what is first?

Huff

[WEATHER53]

Sorry but 79-80 is a killer analog, with many uncanny matches to this year including the 70+ readings in November as of late. I will simply restate, forecasts calling for an above normal snowfall for the mid atlantic in general and DC area specifically and for the winter to average below normal in temps will bust. However, there will be some real cold in Jan or Feb, December will continue mild, and areas such as Richmond/Norfolk and the south will benefit from the cold high supression bonanza with above normal snowfall.

[Stormsfury]

In regards to Hurricane Activity and Winter Season correlations ...

Such a strange phenomena IMHO (and definitely NOT a scientific one has revealed some interesting but weird correlations) ...

2003 ... the January 23rd, 2003 Outer Banks Snowstorm ... followed by Hurricane Isabel's Landfall in September ...

1989 ... Hurricane Hugo in Charleston, SC ... 3 months later, the coastal Christmas Snowstorm for the Carolinas.

1979 ... Major Icestorm in Charleston during the President's Day Blizzard with some snow ... September 1979, Hurricane David strikes Savannah, GA ...

1999 ... Hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, and Irene ... Floyd in particular ... January 24th-25th, 2000 - Major Snowstorm (almost an unexpected one at that) dumps on Raleigh, NC with 16" of snow in 4 hours, and a storm total of 20.3" ...

Again, nothing scientific on this ... but now, some interesting tidbits from Dr. Gray's verification statistics this year (damn, he did quite good with his numbers this year).

Special Characteristics of the 2003 Hurricane Season

Ana became the first tropical cyclone on record to form in the Atlantic basin in April.

A very active early season. Four named storms formed by July 17. Since 1950, the only years that have already had their fourth named storm by this early in the season were 1959 and 1997.

14 named storms formed this year. The only years since 1950 with more named storms forming were 1969 (17 NS), 1995 (19 NS), and 2001 (15 NS). (My edit: AOML/HURDAT officially has 18 storms)

An extraordinary number of intense hurricane days (17 IHD). Only 1961 (20.75 IHD) has had more intense hurricane days than this year. (My edit: 1961 being thrown around as an analog)

Isabel was the first landfalling East Coast hurricane since Floyd (1999). It has now been seven years since an intense hurricane struck the East Coast of the United States. The last storm to do so was Fran (1996).

Isabel was the longest lived intense hurricane (8 IHD) since Luis (1995 - also 8 IHD).

The remarkable longevity of Fabian (7.5 IHD) and Isabel (8 IHD) as intense hurricanes. Since 1900, there has never been a year where two storms have each compiled greater than 6 intense hurricane days.

Isabel reached Category 5 status on September 11. It is the first system in the Atlantic to be classified as a Category 5 hurricane since Mitch (1998).

A very active September. The observed September NTC value (94) was the third highest on record, trailing only 1961 (141) and 1950 (98). (My edit: Again, 1961 pops up but 1950 does ... 1950 had 8 MAJORS)

A generally active season. The observed seasonal NTC of 168 places this year in 7th place for the largest NTC value since 1950.

An intense hurricane formed in October (Kate). We have now had an intense hurricane in October in 6 of the last 9 years (since 1995). In the 18 years preceeding 1995, only one October intense hurricane was observed.

Despite a near-record number of intense hurricane days in September, we observed the fewest September hurricanes (3) since 1999.

Isabel and Fabian alone accounted for nearly 100 NTC units.

Good job on the outlook, Don and thanks for taking the time to issue that for us ... One thing that I wonder, however, is for the below normal precip (with below normal temperatures) for the Southeastern States ... Usually, during El Niño's, I would normally expect a better chance of at least seeing normal to above normal precip during the winter months (and that's about what I expect except that the temperatures actually will probably be around normal IMO), but with a suppressed storm track (or GOM lows) which I think will start to occur later in the winter towards January ... But that is barring a crushing PV that suppresses the storm track and shears out potential storms like January 2002 ...

SF

[donsutherland1]

RNS,

I fully agree with your statement, "you dont always need to have a long-term pattern which favors a major snow event in order to get one in the major cities...take for example 1982/83...that winter saw next to no significant events in the big cities except for the blizzard of '83." An outstanding point.

Your second point concerning major East Coast snowstorms is another good one. I was focusing more on the long-term odds for a given city having a blockbuster event (e.g., 12" or more) in consecutive years with Boston having a far greater probability than NYC, Philadelphia, etc.

There certainly can be consecutive years with such events. There can also be consecutive winters with much above normal snowfall e.g., more than 30" in NYC--the record is 5 consecutive winters: 1880-81 through 1884-85.

Also, my quote pertaining to the "battle" between 1979-80 and 1960-61 comes from October 15. Things have evolved since then and I'm on the same page with you that there is no such battle any more. It did appear to me at the time that among other things, such a fight was possible then. I do believe 1979-80 is a closer fit than 1960-61.

Your point, "...thats almost the same as saying for example that because it was 51 degrees in NYC on November 5, and it was 51 degrees on Nov 5, 1970 that that the winter of 1970/71 would be an analog...its just not fact" is a good one. Relying solely on day-to-day similarities is not the strongest measure of finding analogs.

Just so that no one misunderstands me, KA's use of actual weather events to help identify analogs goes beyond such comparisons. Given his outstanding track record, his approach commands respect and I don't think any of us is seeking to dismiss what he does--I've seen Erica's post about the respect both of you have for KA--and I feel exactly the same way. I just didn't want others to accidentally misunderstand this point.

[donsutherland1]

Weather53,

So far, 1979-80 has held up well. I cannot disagree on that point.

[donsutherland1]

SF,

An interesting post.

1999-00 was a La Nina (C) winter with a West QBO.

1989-90 is more intriguing, as it was a Neutral ENSO winter with a QBO that switched from East to West in March (I believe a similar switch will occur this winter in either February or March).

Much has been written on 1979-80, so it has been pretty well covered.

1961-62 saw a West QBO throughout--I do place importance on the QBO, though, similarities with regard to other factors could outweigh a difference QBO, particularly with regard to timing of a switch.

FWIW, NYC's seasonal snowfall for a number of the hurricane years you cite comes to:

1950-51: 11.6"
1959-60: 39.2"
1961-62: 18.1"
1969-70: 25.6"
1979-80: 12.8"
1989-90: 13.4"
1995-96: 75.6"
1996-97: 10.0"
1997-98: 5.5"
1998-99: 12.7"
1999-00: 16.3"
2001-02: 3.5"

75% of those years had less than 20" of snowfall. Included were 1997-98 and 2001-02, either of which could give the proverbial snow geese a heart attack.

Of course, those aren't necessarily analogs, so there's no need for snow geese to be running to their heart surgeons just yet.

Finally, with regard to ENSO, I do not favor a W- winter but cannot rule it out for part of the winter. Rather, as I currently see it, conditions could approach a borderline N to W- situation. If a W- develops, precipitation should be higher.

[Stormsfury]

Yep, 1989 was a neutral ENSO year. 1990 has some strange correlations with our current situation in regards to SST anomalies ...

1989 Loop By Month
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Floo ... 9SSTs.html

1990 Loop By Month
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Floo ... 0SSTs.html

Now compare to 1990 to 2003 so far.
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Floo ... 3SSTs.html

A lot of PAC similarities, but the ATL this year is MUCH warmer than 1990 ... but both this year and 1990 had 14 storms, but in 1990, only 5 hurricanes, and 1 major ...

This is probably nothing real significant but thought I'd bring it up.

SF

[NEwxgirl]

1979/80 is a very deceiving analog, it may look like it holds alot of weight on the surface, but there are many more problems with it that are less discussed than what are easily seen. Actually in our first winter outlook, 1979/80 was one of the primary analogs, though, our ideas have since changed. 1960/61 SSTA were way too cold to match this year (closer to La Nina) and this year are borderline El Nino, if other pacific factors were closer it might fit in as a secondary analog. The QBO is really the only similarity.

I do agree with you Don on the idea that the QBO switches west in February. and notice the cooling of the SSTA off the coast of newfoundland, and the splitting apart of the warm pool (we now have two, one in the tropics, and the far north atlantic near greenland, as colder waters are now emerging in the middle). thats the classic Atlantic SSTA tripole configuration consistent with a strong Atlantic thermohaline circulation and the dominating signal for a negative NAO in winter as long as the warm pools dont join up again, which is doubtful.

lets not forget that a strong ATC favors a more even distribution of heat, weakening of the atlantic jet and icelandic low, leading to a negative NAO.

check out where we were in October as compared to now>>>

October 28, 2003>>>

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 4.2003.gif

On the October 28 analysis a very strong warm pool is located near newfoundland, which would favor ridging near the east coast, when there is no clear split in the SSTA warm pools. And at this time, the beginnins of a split were developing, however the two warm pools were for the most part linked up, so storm systems moved straight northward toward greenland as they deepen, lowering heights and strengthening the icelandic low. this was also aided by the high solar flux and geomagnetic activity at that time. The pacific signal was much different also, note the cold pool which would indicate an enahnced pacific jet. there was no warm water east of japan, which since warming was taking place to the north near the southeast coast of russia, this lead to prevalent ridging across alaska and the amplification of the trough in the western part of the country (RNA pattern) which we have been locked into for weeks now.

November 21, 2003>>>

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 4.2003.gif

at the present time, we can tell that there is warm water developing to the east of japan, the warm pools are splitting apart in the atlantic, cooling is taking place off of newfoundland, and the intense cold pool in the gulf of Alaska is barely noticable. all of these things are signs that the pattern is going to eventually change. the weaking of the cold pool in the gulf of alaska is especially important because it will slow the pacific jet, and allow it to push further north. cooler water is slowly displacing the warm pool (which was in place along the east coast of russia) eastward toward the bering sea, which should allow for further changes in the pacific signal, to one which would favor a neutral to slightly positive PNA down the road.

an interesting thing is the two cold pools, one to the east of hawaii and the other below the warm pool east of japan, these could be responsible for the number of cutoff low pressure areas we have seen this month across the pacific. should that presist, the cutoffs would pump the ridge to the north of the low centers and cause wavelengths to broaden as we have seen. the one that i want to focus more on is the cold pool to the east of hawaii, as long as low pressure areas keep cutting off there in the sub-tropial branch of the jet, they will force the polar branch to cut southeast, instead of digging into the western part of the country as were were previously seeing. this is all well and good, but for a true cold pattern and one which is more apmlified, you would want the PNA ridge instead of the cutoffs. with the cutoff low in that area, it does allow for the polar branch to be aimed further east instead of directly south, but it doesnt favor strong could outbreaks due to the lack of amplification specific to the broader wavelengths which are favored in such a situation.

though their are all positive signs for the changing of the pattern.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Notice everyone the trough near spain, which says that the trough is deeper in the eastern part of the country, ridging is developing overtop of a cutoff low near the caspian sea in asia, there appears to be a piece of energy which is removed though not completely cutoff from the main flow in the sub-tropical branch east of hawaii, which would force the northern branch to cut southeast away from it, and be directed into the eastern part of the country. its hard to tell given the number of cutoffs whether or not wavelengths will be too broad to allow for deeper trough amplification into the eastern part of the country which the sharper trough near spain would indicate.

this has some support from the GFS ensembels too>>>



blocking is in place near baffen island, and there is a weak below normal height anomaly to the southeast of it. notice also that the trough is deeper in western europe, which may allow the trough in the eastern part of the country to be deeper as well.

these things though are going to be decided on a day to day basis as long range model skill has been poor.

goodnight everyone. and nice job Don on your winter outlook!

[WEATHER53]

This is to further explain how we look at things. The above post is a micro-dissection of some of the many micro-players that are, we believe, results of weather as opposed to causers of weather. We look at a much bigger issue-weather itself-that is resultant or apparent weather. These micro-dissections fail to realize that the same apparent weather can occur with completely different, NAO, QBO, sun maxes, ocean temps, etc or to say that the Pacific is warm this year and in 79 is was cooler therefore 79 does not work is failing to see the forest for the trees and we beleive that weather outcomes prove that idea to be wrong. We had a cold and snowy winter last year with a frequently positive NAO so it is iniftely more useful to look at the big pictrre, results, and see we had a big snowstorm, wet spring, cold and wet summer but warm August, tropical impact on the mid atlantic, early October chill, November warmth-all of which is analagous to 79 and 03.

Let me add that Erica aned RNS have umteenth more technical training than me and can run circles around me on many issues. What we are very good at is observations and resultant weather for seasonal outlooks and to a lesser degree the short term. In a sense, keeping weather diaries since in my case the 60's and in my good friends case the 50's and simply writing down that when the set up is this and that; the outcome is such. That record keeping is in a way our computer models and for what has developed into a widely recognized and publicly sought after seasonal outlook, it works very well.

[RNS]

first of all 53...you do an excellent job with you discussions and observations as well. and your method of record keeping is also very interesting.

what i will say though is that what will be the winter of 2003/04 is placed 6 winters into the pacific long-term cold phase...and 9 years into the atlantic cold cycle (which began in 1995/96). 1979/80 occured at the END of the previous atlantic cold cycle.

and you mention the Atlantic Hurricane analogs... 1979 doesnt match for development...infact...its NOT even CLOSE (the TFF factor):

2003 totals:



http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html

and 1979:



http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html

nine total systems occured in 1979 in what was a very slow season. 2003 was one of the most active seasons on record with over 10 additional (19 total) developments. Thats a big difference

[donsutherland1]

Erica,

I presume (maybe incorrectly) when you're referring to your "first winter outlook," you are referring to your preliminary outlook for Winter 2003-04.

You are correct about the Atlantic tripole configuration that is emerging. If it is sustained, clearly the groundwork is being laid for a negative NAO. With regard to snowcover, I place less emphasis on that matter. I missed your points on that yesterday and I agree with them. I see at best a weak correlation.

I also agree that the SSTA pattern is changing especially with respect to the Gulf of Alaska.

Your observation with regard to the cold SSTA's is a good one. It's actually a very good explanation, in my view and bears watching from a teleconnections standpoint as fall gives way to winter.

Finally, if I were the moderators/administrators here (I don't mean to criticize anyone just make a suggestion), I would probably create a sticky with hyperlinks to the most informative posts. Your (RNS' and yours) winter discussion would be listed in my view as it offers outstanding explanations for a large number of factors. Many of the members here could learn from it.

Have a great week ahead.

[RNS]

thanks don...we very much appreciate it...

yea she was referring to our winter prelim released at the end of august. we didint post it online or anything it was sent to clients and that was it, as we didint have the time then to create a second version to post.

and about the theory on the cutoffs, i have a feeling that shes absolutely correct (i never really gave much thought to the implications of that), though given that type of pattern, the chances for getting a major cold snap into the eastern part of the country is relatively small due to the borader wavelengths.

[Guest]

Well i will say i appericate all of you guys sharing and debating your thoughts on all of this here at Storm2K.................Hopefully we can get more people involved in these great discussions...........Too bad certain others cant debate on a professional level which i think you guys know who they are at another certain site! Oh well thier loss! Keep up the great work and discussions guys!!!!!