ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#1301 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:39 am

H36, moving slowly SE
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal036.gif
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#1302 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:39 am

GFS @ 36 hrs has the ridge building back in. Westward it goes!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#1303 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:39 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Looks like GFS might go west this run!



at 36hr its splitting energy out and over FL.....same as other runs IMO...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re:

#1304 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:40 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:1001mb, 24hours.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal024.gif


this is already at 1001mbs so it may be underdoing the strength just a tad

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145452
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon Discussion

#1305 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:40 am

Here is Saturday's TCPOD:

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 231530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-036

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
       A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
       C. 23/2245Z
       D. 27.5N 88.2W
       E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
       A. 25/1200,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
       C. 25/1045Z
       D. 27.5N 88.2W
       E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
    3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035
       WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re:

#1306 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:41 am

Dean4Storms wrote:GFS @ 36 hrs has the ridge building back in. Westward it goes!



If by West..you mean North East..then yes :lol:
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#1307 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:41 am

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 23/2245Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 25/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 25/1045Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035
WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#1308 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:42 am

Wow, it dropped the ridge in a hurry by 42 hrs.

My bad, looks like GFS is holding firm!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1309 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:43 am

maybe the GFS is shearing out 96 and that is what its picking up on....ejecting the MLC to the NE...IDK.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#1310 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:43 am

H48, sub 1000, attatched to trof?
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal048.gif
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#1311 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:44 am

it will likely keep spiiting ot vorts till the shear relaxrs ... if it does. not going to stregthen much.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#1312 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:44 am

H54, hatching Ernesto again.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal054.gif
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1313 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:45 am

well the GFS has stuck to its guns....now we see if any other models follow...what a weird storm this has been to track...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#1314 Postby Jevo » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:45 am

12Z GFS Initialized
Image

12Z GFS +24
Image

12Z GFS +48
Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1315 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:45 am

ROCK wrote:maybe the GFS is shearing out 96 and that is what its picking up on....ejecting the MLC to the NE...IDK.....


IDK...pressure continues to drop on the GFS with 96L...Just odd
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#1316 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:47 am

H60, moving slowly SSE or SE
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal060.gif
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#1317 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:47 am

If the GFS does not verify (IMO likely not) this is going to be embarrassing! lol
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1318 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:47 am

gives birth to Ernesto at 66hr.... :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1319 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:48 am

Once again, an undetermined center usually resolves poleward. I disagree with Aric. I think this one is obviously it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1320 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:48 am

Is it getting left behind?
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests