ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

looks like Earl is going towards the northern edge of the cone, this is one of the reasons that if you're in the cone you could be hit

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[alan1961]

ISS Tracks over Hurricane Earl

[Kazmit]

Anyone suspect they're going to have to adjust that forecast track?

I think they will. It might be heading more north than predicted.

[whatacane]

Anyone suspect they're going to have to adjust that forecast track?

I think they will. It might be heading more north than predicted.

What makes you think more north? is the ridge breaking down north of it ? mabey into the gulf?

[CrazyC83]

Do we have any members in Belize or the Yucatan?

I'm sorry I haven't been on much - the last 2 weeks have been outrageous for me as I have been settling into my meteorology degree program in Starkville, MS.

[whatacane]

Anyone suspect they're going to have to adjust that forecast track?

I think they will. It might be heading more north than predicted.

What makes you think more north? is the ridge breaking down north of it ? mabey into the gulf?

Anyone suspect they're going to have to adjust that forecast track?

I think they will. It might be heading more north than predicted.

What makes you think more north? is the ridge breaking down north of it ? mabey into the gulf?

gfs Jetstream forecast has a low in the gluf 4th to 5th ?

[JaxGator]

Earl is a hurricane I see. Definitely has become more organized today and is a large system (impressive radar from NOAA btw). Josh from @iCyclone says that people in Belize City are taking Earl seriously and aren't taking any chances. Not to mention the low elevation. However, it looks like Earl might go further north but we'll see. Wonder what it might do next.

[Kazmit]

Anyone suspect they're going to have to adjust that forecast track?

I think they will. It might be heading more north than predicted.

What makes you think more north? is the ridge breaking down north of it ? mabey into the gulf?

It's just generally heading in a more northernly direction, nearer to the north edge of the cone.

[Hammy]

Winds seem down on the second pass, are the hurricane winds only confined to the NW quad?

[GLF4drvr]

Do we have any members in Belize or the Yucatan?

I'm sorry I haven't been on much - the last 2 weeks have been outrageous for me as I have been settling into my meteorology degree program in Starkville, MS.

Im on Ambergris Caye, northern edge of the cone. Everyone around here has taken it pretty seriously. Might lose power in a couple of hours, so unfortunately not going to be able to follow it up until landfall.

[JtSmarts]

Do we have any members in Belize or the Yucatan?

I'm sorry I haven't been on much - the last 2 weeks have been outrageous for me as I have been settling into my meteorology degree program in Starkville, MS.

Im on Ambergris Caye, northern edge of the cone. Everyone around here has taken it pretty seriously. Might lose power in a couple of hours, so unfortunately not going to be able to follow it up until landfall.

Stay safe and keep us posted as you are able!

[Nimbus]

I think they will. It might be heading more north than predicted.

What makes you think more north? is the ridge breaking down north of it ? mabey into the gulf?

I think they will. It might be heading more north than predicted.

What makes you think more north? is the ridge breaking down north of it ? mabey into the gulf?

gfs Jetstream forecast has a low in the gluf 4th to 5th ?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

Earl could stair step west if there is westerly steering at the 850 MB level we aren't seeing?

[Aric Dunn]

It is well on its way now. maybe just enough time to deepen to landfall now thats its begun

[alan1961]

http://edition.channel5belize.com/live-streaming

live streaming now

[BZSTORM]

Do we have any members in Belize or the Yucatan?

I'm sorry I haven't been on much - the last 2 weeks have been outrageous for me as I have been settling into my meteorology degree program in Starkville, MS.

Im on Ambergris Caye, northern edge of the cone. Everyone around here has taken it pretty seriously. Might lose power in a couple of hours, so unfortunately not going to be able to follow it up until landfall.

Stay safe and keep us posted as you are able!

I'm to the south in Seine Bight on Placencia Peninsula - Everyone from Punta Gorda to Belize Border is pretty much boarded up building and hunkered down, though South looks to be out of picture fro wins but we still expect rains. If Belize City or Mexico power lines go down we will prob lose power in South as well so we will see how long I remain online as well.

[GLF4drvr]

On Ambergris Caye, we are currently seeing around 15G20kts of wind from the direct North. Light drizzle, and huge swell starting to pound the reef ( 1 mile out) situated to our east. Biggest I've seen the swell and waves breaking on the reef in 3 years (very conservatively estimated at 8-10 ft). Some waves are making it to shore as 2ft breakers, but nothing too serious coming through yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to look really good.

[Aric Dunn]

Fully closed eyewall. its quickly trying to deepen now..

[Hammy]

The data is sending somewhat mixed signals--the appearance on radar has improved but the winds now seem weaker and nothing indicates more than 60-65mph from the last two passes.

[Aric Dunn]

The data is sending somewhat mixed signals--the appearance on radar has improved but the winds now seem weaker and nothing indicates more than 60-65mph from the last two passes.

yeah will take a little time to respond..