Brent wrote:the NAM has an MCS/line moving from Oklahoma into DFW and east in the predawn hours Sunday.
I would be ok with that.
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Brent wrote:the NAM has an MCS/line moving from Oklahoma into DFW and east in the predawn hours Sunday.
By late afternoon, the dryline will advect toward our western
zones, although its eastward progress may be hampered by the
fairly deep moisture layer which will not be able mix out very
quickly. There is still concern over a low potential for storms to
develop along the dryline by late afternoon, although initiation
will be a challenge given there should still be a stout cap in
place with a lack of large-scale ascent. If a storm or two were
able to initiate and sustain themselves into the favorable air
east of the dryline, they would likely become severe as a
supercellular storm mode would be favored given the shear
parameters. The aformentioned warm/moist boundary layer will
result in several thousand J/kg of SBCAPE which would be
incredibly favorable for any discrete storms if they`re able to
survive in a capped environment. Very large hail would be the
primary threat with this activity, although damaging winds and an
isolated tornado would be possible too. While the thermodynamics
are certainly quite favorable for severe weather, the question
remains whether any storms will be able to initiate whatsoever.
Most CAM solutions make much more sense than yesterday morning`s
runs which had previously been igniting widespread dryline
convection within the forecast area. Most models this morning are
much more reluctant to do so and many keep us completely dry
through the evening hours. Given the cap and lack of ascent, a
dry forecast actually seems like the best bet and it seems quite
possible that the environment will squander the extreme
instability in place today, at least regarding dryline convection.
Have left low PoPs as the threat for this convection to develop
is still non-zero.
bubba hotep wrote:HRRR is pretty locked in on no dryline action and the MCS missing DFW to the NE. Looks mostly dry & hot and then dry & muggy.
hriverajr wrote:That dryline to the west of DFW is almost out of time to pop a storm.
Brent wrote:Heh I just noticed DFW only got to 80 this morning... if that holds it will tie the record for warmest May low from 2008(and 4 degrees above record from 2006)
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