ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

dry air, little bit of shear, no name system, also this thing is booking it!! hard to developed quickly when systems are moving this fast

[CrazyC83]

It's already at the 00Z point (or slightly east of) 5 hours ahead of schedule? Wow it is zooming!

[Jonny]

TWC just said that FL panhandle (near Panama City or Pensacola) is possible, but still also saying that LA landfall is likely.

Either way, thankfully this isn't a very strong storm.

[GBPackMan]

I can definitely say that it looks like Nate is developing a core now, convection is right along the W & S quadrant trying to feel in on the rest of the quadrants.

There's a little bit of dry air just to the east but as it reaches the gulf it won't have that problem

In my opinion, I would have to politely disagree. The jet stream is dipping down into the Rockies, sending that high level cooler air right into the top end of this storm, plus the low/ground level winds are pushing the hot dry air out of the Mexican desert, which is the dry section being sucked in from the west into the southern section of the storm. Combine that with the speed of this thing and it will not have any time to develop much. As it gets into the northern gulf the jet stream will be sucking out much of the moisture, dumping it along the front all the way into New England.
This is why they are saying Cat 1 at worst.

[Blown Away]

I'll predict the NHC lowers intensity forecast a little...

[MGC]

Nate looks to be getting better organized this afternoon......not a good trend. I think Nate's involvement with the Yucatan should be minimal.....MGC

[galaxy401]

Some are saying this storm is strengthening while others are saying it won't strengthen much more. Huge inconsistencies today.

[tolakram]

In my opinion, I would have to politely disagree. The jet stream is dipping down into the Rockies, sending that high level cooler air right into the top end of this storm, plus the low/ground level winds are pushing the hot dry air out of the Mexican desert, which is the dry section being sucked in from the west into the southern section of the storm. Combine that with the speed of this thing and it will not have any time to develop much. As it gets into the northern gulf the jet stream will be sucking out much of the moisture, dumping it along the front all the way into New England.
This is why they are saying Cat 1 at worst.

What maps are you using that show that?

Here's the GFS 200mb https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=uv200&runtime=2017100612&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=300

Not seeing this cool air you are talking about as wind direction stays out of the south and southwest at the upper levels.

[bella_may]

I'll predict the NHC lowers intensity forecast a little...

If anything they might up the intensity a little. But I don't expect them to change the intensity until the next recon. I hope this storm doesn't catch people off guard. You never know how long the power outages could last

[Aric Dunn]

last couple frames.. some very deep hot towers developing and wrapping around to the north side.. could be a start of a deepening phase..

[Aric Dunn]

pressure has definitely dropped.. this bouy in the eastern "eyewall'' with 40kts of wind with a pressure 0f 996..so central pressure probably 993 ish maybe lower.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[NDG]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Nate’s pressure is now down to 990 mb or just above it.

[txwatcher91]

Judging by current motion it looks like the center would either clip the Yucatan or stay offshore. If that does occur it will continue to deepen as we approach DMAX. May be a rapidly organizing hurricane by morning IMO.

[aperson]

Some seriously deep convection going on the N side. Will have to see whether it does something with it to close off or it just makes the system more lopsided

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Gang, two things.

1. Please keep the non-model posts over in the discussion thread.

2. When you summarize what a model solution shows, be accurate. For instance, the 12Z NAM does not show a SELA landfall (it misses Pass a Loutre to the SE by about 15 miles), and the 12Z GFS does not have NOLA written all over it (it moves over Buras, heading NE toward a second landfall along the MS coast). Thanks.

Better yet; why allow a posters written perspective of what they see in a model graphic, when all there is needed, is the graphic?

tolakram has it down pat!

The Majority of us come here for commentary both professional and not...that is what puts S2k above everything else and what has made it the #1 resource on the internet during the carnot cycle of the tropics. If we wanted just graphics we would go elsewhere.

This is a forum after all..as long there isn't outrageous doom casting or talk about global warming happening i do not see what the problem is. I see neither.

[GBPackMan]

Judging by current motion it looks like the center would either clip the Yucatan or stay offshore. If that does occur it will continue to deepen as we approach DMAX. May be a rapidly organizing hurricane by morning IMO.

Too much sheer and interaction with other pieces in the region to get much past 80mph winds at landfall.

[JBCycloneStan]

Judging by current motion it looks like the center would either clip the Yucatan or stay offshore. If that does occur it will continue to deepen as we approach DMAX. May be a rapidly organizing hurricane by morning IMO.

Too much sheer and interaction with other pieces in the region to get much past 80mph winds at landfall.

While the official NHC forecast isn't for it to get to over 80 mph winds, the statement in their last discussion of the storm would seem to debunk your claims:

"Conditions appear favorable for strengthening up to landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make landfall there as
a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is an update of the
previous one, lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
It should be noted that the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS
model continues to indicate an above normal chance of rapid
intensification. However, the current structure of the cyclone does
not favor rapid development."

Note in bold. RI is possible, but NHC isn't forecasting it because of the "current" structure of the storm. Note also, there's nothing about shear or dry air inhibiting RI in this statement. Given the recent favorable changes in structure, why would we NOT expect a higher intensity forecast?

[Aric Dunn]

highest 1 min wind from bouy so far

44.7 kts

currently gusting to 70 mph..

take that back now

4:01 pm 48.6 kts

[CrazyC83]

highest 1 min wind from bouy so far

44.7 kts

currently gusting to 70 mph..

I'd go with 50 kt based on that data.

[Aric Dunn]

highest 1 min wind from bouy so far

44.7 kts

currently gusting to 70 mph..

I'd go with 50 kt based on that data.

now the 1 min avg is
4:01 pm 48.6 kts

50 kts seems reasonable.