CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1301 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:01 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:I think the biggest impact to the Hawaiian Islands even without having to make landfall will be the potential catastrophic floods because Lane is going to be moving very slow from Thursday night through at least Saturday night with most of the Islands over the wet side of the storm.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/8Ni5BKE.png[img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/s2E22ae.png[img]


Thank you for posting these NDG. Do you know how much rain came down when TD Darby passed by Oahu? Peoples homes were flooded during that event, and I wanted to compare.


Darby 16 dumped a peak of 10 inches there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Darby_(2016)
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1302 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Unfortunately it looks like my opportunity to evacuate if needed is going out the window. For 1.4million Hawaii residents, there are only 270k shelter places available statewide.

So I'm at a dilemma here. I have a small apartment on the ground floor in a 2 story building made out of concrete. I was planning on hunkering down in there if Lane affected Oahu with strong hurricane winds. Now, there's a possibility that Lane affects Oahu as a huge flood threat. However my apartment is prone to flooding, because it's at street level. My other unit is a full size home downslope on a hill, but also 15 feet off the ground (I don't know why they built it this way, but we just use the bottom as a basement)and It was built in the 70s, -- the building materials have begun to go bad (my roof leaks when it rains). But it's never gotten flooded. However it's at huge risk to be leveled if hurricane force winds reach it.

So I have to pick my poison here... sit in a low level apartment and possibly get flooded, but be safe from high winds. Or sit in a creaky house, avoid flooding waters, but risk getting damage from winds.


The usual advice is to hide from wind and run from water, but in your situation I would stay in the concrete apartment building. You can always evacuate vertically if the flooding situation becomes too bad. Also i would be very concerned about mudslides impacting your hillside home sitting on stilts.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1303 Postby Mauistorms » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Unfortunately it looks like my opportunity to evacuate if needed is going out the window. For 1.4million Hawaii residents, there are only 270k shelter places available statewide.

So I'm at a dilemma here. I have a small apartment on the ground floor in a 2 story building made out of concrete. I was planning on hunkering down in there if Lane affected Oahu with strong hurricane winds. Now, there's a possibility that Lane affects Oahu as a huge flood threat. However my apartment is prone to flooding, because it's at street level. My other unit is a full size home downslope on a hill, but also 15 feet off the ground (I don't know why they built it this way, but we just use the bottom as a basement)and It was built in the 70s, -- the building materials have begun to go bad (my roof leaks when it rains). But it's never gotten flooded. However it's at huge risk to be leveled if hurricane force winds reach it.

So I have to pick my poison here... sit in a low level apartment and possibly get flooded, but be safe from high winds. Or sit in a creaky house, avoid flooding waters, but risk getting damage from winds.

I am worried that the old house raised 15 feet on the side of the mountain would be prone to mudslide. How about friends in better places?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1304 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:12 pm

Mauistorms wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Unfortunately it looks like my opportunity to evacuate if needed is going out the window. For 1.4million Hawaii residents, there are only 270k shelter places available statewide.

So I'm at a dilemma here. I have a small apartment on the ground floor in a 2 story building made out of concrete. I was planning on hunkering down in there if Lane affected Oahu with strong hurricane winds. Now, there's a possibility that Lane affects Oahu as a huge flood threat. However my apartment is prone to flooding, because it's at street level. My other unit is a full size home downslope on a hill, but also 15 feet off the ground (I don't know why they built it this way, but we just use the bottom as a basement)and It was built in the 70s, -- the building materials have begun to go bad (my roof leaks when it rains). But it's never gotten flooded. However it's at huge risk to be leveled if hurricane force winds reach it.

So I have to pick my poison here... sit in a low level apartment and possibly get flooded, but be safe from high winds. Or sit in a creaky house, avoid flooding waters, but risk getting damage from winds.

I am worried that the old house raised 15 feet on the side of the mountain would be prone to mudslide. How about friends in better places?


I thought about that. But most of them live near Nimitz or in Pearl city mountain side. Just as bad.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1305 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:18 pm

I don't think (good God I hope) the water would reach the second floor of your apartment building. Are your important belongings - particularly documents and survival supplies - in watertight totes?

How are your preparations looking, Mauistorms?

Does Hawaii have any sort of risk map associated with mudslide potential? Especially with the typically drier sides of the islands looking at so much rain... It would be very nice to know where the dangerous hillsides are.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1306 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:20 pm

NDG wrote:I think the biggest impact to the Hawaiian Islands even without having to make landfall will be the potential catastrophic floods because Lane is going to be moving very slow from Thursday night through at least Saturday night with most of the Islands over the wet side of the storm.

Image
Image


Here's the UKMET rainfall map for comparison:

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1307 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:26 pm

Fortunately shear is currently eating at it. Likely down to a cat.4 now. However it's moving into deeper warm waters, so it'll likely be a able to continue maintaining deeper convection longer than usual. We'll need stronger shear than this to bring it down.

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1308 Postby Mauistorms » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:26 pm

somethingfunny wrote:I don't think (good God I hope) the water would reach the second floor of your apartment building. Are your important belongings - particularly documents and survival supplies - in watertight totes?

How are your preparations looking, Mauistorms?


Just trying to figure out where to put things that are laying around the yard...bbq, old rusty basketball hoops, wheelbarrows etc... we also have an old east maui irrigation ditch just across the road on the upslope so not sure if that could potentially overflow or if it will help divert water away. lots of gulches around here that are prone to flash flooding during regular winter storms...can't imagine 20+ inches so feel a bit helpless to prepare for that. We also have 10 giant norfolk pines within 30 yard of our house... :cry:
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1309 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:28 pm

12z EPS shift is not good.

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1310 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:31 pm

EC has been initializing Lane way to weak. The shift is probably due to it finally picking up the actual intensity.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1311 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Due to a shallower system. We need Lane to be significantly weaker than this for the any west bends to occur.


What is the physical reason a weaker system would be more likely to turn?


It'll be steered by a different level, the low level flow, basically the easterly winds around Hawaii @ 850mb.

Image


Is this because a weaker system doesn’t extend as high in the atmosphere?

(Apologies for my ignorance. I’m supposed to be specializing in astrophysics so I kind of fell out of touch with all the other sciences , though to be honest I don’t really feel confident in my own field of study either. Oh, grad school.)
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1312 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:33 pm

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
What is the physical reason a weaker system would be more likely to turn?


It'll be steered by a different level, the low level flow, basically the easterly winds around Hawaii @ 850mb.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/reNKJHr.png[img]


Is this because a weaker system doesn’t extend as high in the atmosphere?

(Apologies for my ignorance. I’m supposed to be specializing in astrophysics so I kind of fell out of touch with all the other sciences , though to be honest I don’t really feel confident in my own field of study. Oh, grad school.)


It gets steered by a different layer, and it can't feel the deeper layer as a stronger system would.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1313 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:33 pm

Mauistorms wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:I don't think (good God I hope) the water would reach the second floor of your apartment building. Are your important belongings - particularly documents and survival supplies - in watertight totes?

How are your preparations looking, Mauistorms?


Just trying to figure out where to put things that are laying around the yard...bbq, old rusty basketball hoops, wheelbarrows etc... we also have an old east maui irrigation ditch just across the road on the upslope so not sure if that could potentially overflow or if it will help divert water away. lots of gulches around here that are prone to flash flooding during regular winter storms...can't imagine 20+ inches so feel a bit helpless to prepare for that. We also have 10 giant norfolk pines within 30 yard of our house... :cry:


That ditch will probably clog up with debris and overflow. I hope those trees will stay upright or fall away from your house. If you end up getting the eyewall.... This sounds dumb but bicycle helmets have saved lives in tornadoes.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1314 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
It'll be steered by a different level, the low level flow, basically the easterly winds around Hawaii @ 850mb.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/reNKJHr.png[img]


Is this because a weaker system doesn’t extend as high in the atmosphere?

(Apologies for my ignorance. I’m supposed to be specializing in astrophysics so I kind of fell out of touch with all the other sciences , though to be honest I don’t really feel confident in my own field of study. Oh, grad school.)


It gets steered by a different layer, and it can't feel the deeper layer as a stronger system would.


I still don’t understand why that would be the case, but never mind. You have far more important issues to deal with.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1315 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:43 pm

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
Is this because a weaker system doesn’t extend as high in the atmosphere?

(Apologies for my ignorance. I’m supposed to be specializing in astrophysics so I kind of fell out of touch with all the other sciences , though to be honest I don’t really feel confident in my own field of study. Oh, grad school.)


It gets steered by a different layer, and it can't feel the deeper layer as a stronger system would.


I still don’t understand why that would be the case, but never mind. You have far more important issues to deal with.


Out of my expertise here, but it's likely due to what you replied back to me, and the system does not extend to those higher level that would take it north.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1316 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:46 pm

Still very well established upper level out flow in all quads.. so it is likely getting undercut by some mid level shear at the moment.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1317 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:51 pm

That shear axis has been progressing westward as Lane has moved and is still on the move. interesting.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... rjava.html


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... tjava.html
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1318 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:57 pm

12z HWRF not good...

Image

12z Navy shifted very close to a Oahu landfall, 12z Canadian shifted east close to Kauai but still misses to the west.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1319 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:57 pm

canadian shifted west, not east
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1320 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:58 pm

Notable east shift on 11AM HST forecast track. The cone now incudes most of Maui.
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