ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

124600 2138N 09206W 6993 02726 9606 +101 +060 298143 146 141 061 00

Holy *******

[Teban54]

This reminds me of when Delta was operationally upgraded from Cat 3 to Cat 4 within 20 minutes.

Edit: Also, a reminder that NHC said SFMR equipment had become too damaged to be reliable, and will be discarded for the rest of this season.

[kevin]

941 mb extrapolated with 17 kt winds and 146 kt extrapolated. Milton is currently probably a 940mb/130kt cat 4. Could be a cat 5 within 1 - 2 hours.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

100% at least a 130 knot Category 4 based on that pass. SFMR might be high-biased due to shoaling.

[GCANE]

Extrap
941.0 mb

[GCANE]

Still cranking at 77mm/hr rain rate

[GCANE]

Very small RMW. This is a mega tornado over water

[Jr0d]

If you’re thinking of leaving central or SW Florida, most of the hotels east of the Apalachicola River and south of Macon/Savannah are booked up. Even areas outside of those are getting slammed. I notice some hotels in Miami are still available. I’d book asap cause I expect a full exodus to happen soon. You don’t want to have to drive 700 miles when you go 350 and be good.

Orlando/Kissimmee has plenty of hotels, the place I am at now is less than 50% capacity. Even though the area will likely see strong tropical storm conditions, it will not get the surge.

Milton should be moving fast enough for inland flooding in Central Florida.

I have a major dilemma, go home to Key West(technically Stock Island)and ride out the storm, stay up here and be safe, OR drive home tonight and potentially evacuate tomorrow AM.

When we left on Saturday, I saw how Milton was developing a d we brought our furry friends with us so we do not need to go to back home, though it would be nice to get a few things out if the house just in case.

[FLpanhandle91]

Still has like 12 hours of prime conditions before it's approach to the Yucatan. He could flirt with 890s within that time.

[Abdullah]

Just how strong can it get?

Is this map valid?

[Sciencerocks]

799
URNT15 KNHC 071250
AF309 0814A MILTON HDOB 27 20241007
124200 2151N 09200W 6952 02815 9642 +103 +055 123096 101 109 008 00
124230 2149N 09201W 6970 02723 9544 +128 +051 119067 086 114 004 00
124300 2148N 09203W 6960 02686 9486 +136 +051 108041 058 079 002 00
124330 2146N 09204W 6970 02647 9453 +137 +055 092021 034 043 003 00
124400 2145N 09204W 6959 02642 9413 +160 +050 022004 017 023 002 00
124430 2143N 09204W 6970 02630 9410 +164 +055 293025 034 021 001 00
124500 2141N 09204W 6973 02637 9426 +163 +057 297062 081 074 005 00
124530 2139N 09205W 6977 02689 9518 +124 +079 296119 140 141 060 03
124600 2138N 09206W 6993 02726 9606 +101 +060 298143 146 141 061 00
124630 2137N 09207W 7018 02762 9696 +083 +052 301134 145 131 077 00
124700 2136N 09207W 6997 02835 9752 +084 +047 304121 125 105 071 00
124730 2135N 09208W 6953 02931 9793 +085 +049 309114 116 091 030 03
124800 2135N 09210W 6970 02949 9841 +082 +043 307105 115 085 021 00
124830 2134N 09211W 6959 02981 9839 +103 +041 304095 099 079 009 00
124900 2133N 09212W 6958 03004 9852 +113 +042 304089 094 074 004 00
124930 2131N 09213W 6964 03015 9886 +100 +041 305083 086 073 004 00
125000 2130N 09214W 6968 03026 9872 +127 +040 302082 083 068 004 00
125030 2129N 09215W 6960 03047 9891 +122 +040 302074 080 067 002 00
125100 2128N 09217W 6960 03058 9903 +121 +044 303071 073 067 003 00
125130 2127N 09218W 6959 03067 9906 +126 +043 302067 069 063 003 00

146 knt flight level and 141 smrf. I'd like to see at least 151 knts at flight level but smrf is in fact enough to justify the upgrade. Such a explosive system can in fact have higher surface winds relative to the flight level as was seen in wilma of 2005 that I also posted recon data on.

[kevin]

Lots of turbulence with the NOAA3 plane, they're bouncing all over the place. Now nearing the eye and with 129 kt FL winds.

[GCANE]

Praying for those in Recon.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This reminds me of when Delta was operationally upgraded from Cat 3 to Cat 4 within 20 minutes.

Edit: Also, a reminder that NHC said SFMR equipment had become too damaged to be reliable, and will be discarded for the rest of this season.

I believe that's for the NOAA plane, not the AF plane.

[Chris90]

This reminds me of when Delta was operationally upgraded from Cat 3 to Cat 4 within 20 minutes.

Edit: Also, a reminder that NHC said SFMR equipment had become too damaged to be reliable, and will be discarded for the rest of this season.

That only applies to NOAA planes regarding the SFMR, not AF. NOAA isn't even providing SFMR readings, they're probably not even operating the instrument.

[MJGarrison]

This reminds me of when Delta was operationally upgraded from Cat 3 to Cat 4 within 20 minutes.

Edit: Also, a reminder that NHC said SFMR equipment had become too damaged to be reliable, and will be discarded for the rest of this season.

This is what I thought too. I also remember them saying it wouldn’t be published, though, but obviously we’re getting it. Anyone have better info?


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[LandoWill]

So did the 6z models that were further south more north somewhat? I only ask because i am trying to figure out why NHC moved their "plots" into the mouth of tampa when it was north Sarasota before. GFS and euro i think moved a little south themselves, are we coming into an agreement maybe if the area they expect between Sarasota and St Pete?

[Keldeo1997]

Whole Eyewall becoming very violent.

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... radares-v3

[kevin]

Dropsonde in the 'weaker' NE quadrant found 127 kt at the surface. Cat 5 is inevitable at this point.

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks like NOAA took a minute to get their minds right before punching lol.