ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Jason_B]

I don't see any NNW movement yet, still pretty much west maybe a hair north.

[cpdaman]

I would appreciate it if one of you with so much knowledge here can tell me what to expect from the winds on the back side here on Cape San Blas. It seems to be more westerly right now and the rain has started back up. Wondering when we will have the worst wave events today and trying to figure out how they'll coincide with the tides, etc. Thanks in advance for any insight you can share!

#1 beach in 2002 ya!

ok first i had to find it and it basically faces west or WSW to be more exact.

are your concerns about the beach restoration project that was just completed

difficult to time your worst weather since she appears to be drifting a bit erratically to your north by about 50 miles or so

i would say worst conditions may be sunday (co-inciding with the end of a possible medium term fetch pointed at you) but depend on wether she stalls to your west, since so far today the West fetch is not that long or strong, later this evening/tonite a good SW fetch could develop , note the bouy to your east has sustained 30 knot winds. so i would anticpate waves picking up tonite

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

sunday SSW fetch could continue to set up ,, i think for your restoration project the worst case would be a stall to your WNW or west (about 100-150 miles from where she is now) and a prolonged SSW/SW fetch, which would eat away at the sand until late sunday or so

[mutley]

Anyone have any links to good surface plots, like wxman57 recommended using?

[BigB0882]

I wonder what Baton Rouge can expect from this. It should pass very near us but if it is eaten up as badly as predicted, we may get just a little rainfall. If it doesn't pass far enough to or west then we may stay on the relatively dry west side of the storm. Will be fun to watch but I don't feel like getting flooded in at work!

[Jason_B]

New burst of convection firing near or on the center around Panama City.

[beachlover]

That's us! Actually, the project is still under construction. I'm co-chair. The active work zone is about 800 feet north of my house. We're worried about a few stuctures (one just south of my place and one down at the southern end of the Cape) and I just don't know when to expect the worst seas. I have a beach cam here but don't know if it's appropriate to post the link. I have gotten tired of wiping off the housing but will go back to keeping it clean later today.

Operations are shut down and I am trying to get a realistic idea of when they'll be calm enough for them to return back to work and assess any damage to the sublines. I do hope she doesn't stall to the west of us. I do know that on the wave watch I was looking at, there was a return of surf at like 36 hours out or something that was sort of confusing. I'm going to run into Port St. Joe now and hope I can get back to the Cape before the rain starts in again. Should be here soon. Thanks for taking the time to research and post your thoughts. I really appreciate it!

I would appreciate it if one of you with so much knowledge here can tell me what to expect from the winds on the back side here on Cape San Blas. It seems to be more westerly right now and the rain has started back up. Wondering when we will have the worst wave events today and trying to figure out how they'll coincide with the tides, etc. Thanks in advance for any insight you can share!

#1 beach in 2002 ya!

ok first i had to find it and it basically faces west or WSW to be more exact.

are your concerns about the beach restoration project that was just completed

difficult to time your worst weather since she appears to be drifting a bit erratically to your north by about 50 miles or so

i would say worst conditions may be sunday/monday but depend on wether she stalls to your west, since today the West fetch is not that long or strong, sunday a decent litte south west/ SSW fetch could set up , but honestly nothing sustained over 30, i think for your restoration project the worst case would be a stall to your WNW or west (about 100-150 miles from where she is now) and a prolonged SSW/SW fetch

[wxman57]

Anyone have any links to good surface plots, like wxman57 recommended using?

Here's a good site:

http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mesonet/

You can drag your mouse across the image and trace out a zoom in box across the FL Panhandle. Mouse over the obs for a full report.

[Steve]

57,

Looks like the UKMET 06z has a similar idea to what you are talking about. TD Fay distorts and flattens in response to the dry air intrusion, goes inland only to come back down in response to the trough. GFS does the same thing. It well may be that they're onto something that other models didn't see as aggressively.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Edit ^^^^ at the 500mb level

[wxman57]

57,

Looks like the UKMET 06z has a similar idea to what you are talking about. TD Fay distorts and flattens in response to the dry air intrusion, goes inland only to come back down in response to the trough. GFS does the same thing. It well may be that they're onto something that other models didn't see as aggressively.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Edit ^^^^ at the 500mb level

Just take a look at a WV loop. I don't have a link to one, but there's a lot of low to mid-level dry air blasting into Fay from the west now. That can squelch out convection pretty quickly. Would be good news for AL/MS/LA if Fay is killed by the dry air.

[Dean4Storms]

Brett Adair with Severestudios.com just reported 52mph wind gusts on his storm chase just northeast of Medart in the heavy Convection. Reporting numerous trees down on Hwy 98, he's got a live stream going of his chase at that website.

[funster]

New burst of convection firing near or on the center around Panama City.

I see a faint band on the south/southwest side but most of the strongest convection is to the northeast of Fay.

[tallywx]

Fascinating live streaming video coverage right now of reporters driving around Tallahassee

http://www.tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

See "Video: Live Storm Coverage" on the right.

[Enzo Aquarius]

The storm total for rainfall is absolutely astonishing east of Tallahassee:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Water Meters:

Macclenny (St. Mary's) and Middleburg (Black Creek) near Jacksonville reached Major Flood stage, Black Creek is expected to go down to Moderate Stage and lower gradually, but St. Mary's is expected to remain in Major Flood stage for a few days.

St. Mark's River in Newport is rising significantly and is in Flood Stage. Expected to reach Moderate Stage in approximately 12 hours, but the amount of rain the area is getting could create a quicker rise in water. All other meters show standard water levels, though some like Ochlockonee is expected to reach Flood Stage or higher over the next day or two. Sopchoppy River is almost at Action Stage as well.

[Dean4Storms]

The center is now roughly 30 miles to my East moving right toward me from what I can tell. The winds have subsided a great deal in the last 15 minutes.

I meant to my East.

[mutley]

Anyone have any links to good surface plots, like wxman57 recommended using?

Here's a good site:

http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mesonet/

You can drag your mouse across the image and trace out a zoom in box across the FL Panhandle. Mouse over the obs for a full report.

Thank you.

[tolakram]

Panama City



I'm guessing a west movement slowly away. Boy I wish Fay would stay inland and dissipate soon, but she looks stuck again.

[cpdaman]

per radar lamont, Fl appears to be nearing 18 inches of rain and no end in site


also on a different note 95 L appears to be flaring up and racing west at 50w/20n

[senorpepr]

New charts added...

[sunny]

Question: How long could NOLA levies handle 4-5"/hour rainfall rates?

It's not going to be a question of the levees because there won't be a storm surge. It's going to be a question of what the pumps can handle. And the pumps can only pump out 1 inch of rain per hour.

[funster]

Sadly, Fay doesn't seem to have let up at all when it comes to making rain - must still be spinning just offshore or partially offshore.