ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Stormcenter]

I know it looks like it's finally trying to get it's act togther but it still looks disorganized but then I've seen worse classified a TS is past. Anyway IMO it still looks like it's headed in WNW course looking at the latest visible loop but then again being so disorganized it's hard to tell.

[Stormcenter]

Mexico or lower Texas coastline (maybe middle) still look
like the best bets right now. IMO

It looks to be moving in a more NW direction to me and if you go by the last few coordinates given of the low.

It looks like it to me... I just don't see it hitting Mexico.

[Dean4Storms]

It looks to be moving in a more NW direction to me and if you go by the last few coordinates given of the low.

It looks like it to me... I just don't see it hitting Mexico.

You talking about the Yucatan part of Mexico or the Mexico south of Texas?

It looks like it will hit the Yucatan.

[chzzdekr81]

It looks to be moving in a more NW direction to me and if you go by the last few coordinates given of the low.

It looks like it to me... I just don't see it hitting Mexico.

You talking about the Yucatan part of Mexico or the Mexico south of Texas?

It looks like it will hit the Yucatan.

South of Texas.

[tailgater]

Bouy 42057 winds up to 23 kts gust to 29. pressure up atick

[Dean4Storms]

The future track is all going to depend on its immediate track over the next 2 days and how deep a system it becomes.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[AnnularCane]

Mexico or lower Texas coastline (maybe middle) still look
like the best bets right now. IMO

Why is that?

[tolakram]

Speed up the loop to get a good idea where the center is. Looks like most of the convection right over or south.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

[Ntxwx]

Mexico or lower Texas coastline (maybe middle) still look
like the best bets right now. IMO

Exactly what I see as well.

[jlauderdal]

Mexico or lower Texas coastline (maybe middle) still look
like the best bets right now. IMO

Why is that?

strong ridging in place, ridge=west

[Stormcenter]

I also believe land interaction will play a part. How much strengthening
there is before 93L (TD or whatever)makes landfall and what condition it's in after in makes
into the GOM (if it does)are other factors. IMO

The future track is all going to depend on its immediate track over the next 2 days and how deep a system it becomes.

[cycloneye]

Web Cams from Belize and Cozumel. Find more cams at link in my signature.

[drezee]

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (EDT) WSPD WDIR
11:27 am 27.4 kts SSE ( 158 deg true )
from 42057

over 30mph sustained wind

[antonlsu]

I am interested to see what Recon finds and if we do infact have a TD

[tailgater]

Cool movie of the players for 93l
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off
Shows the Upper trough that venting Darby currently and could be for this system,
shows the front across mid US, shows the dry air that was over the invest yesterday being mixed out along with T-storms starting to pop in the NW Caribbean. shows what's in store for 94L. I'm now thinking this will probably be a TS before landfall along the Yucatan. IMH amateur opinion

[Weatherfreak000]

93L definitely FINALLY has "the look"




Recon should be the clincher. 80% by 2 P.M?

[AdamFirst]

Things are finally cooking.

FINALLY.

[Weatherfreak000]

Exceptional job on the forecasting Wxman57. You truly nailed it. I will keep an eye out due to your concern for the Central Gulf.

[jasons2k]

I think the Euro has the right idea. Yucatan bound and then a 2nd Landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville, likely as a strong TS or minimal hurricane. I'm not buying the right bias of the GFS and its cousins at all.