ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[rockyman]

Ship report from T&C:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

[xcool22]

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[Blown Away]

Latest

Deep reds popping out, if there is a LLC do you think it's under that deep spot?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[AtlanticWind]

Looking like it is making its latest attempt at TC formation this evening , convection trying to wrap around the center

[dixiebreeze]

Pretty good drop in pressure from 1012 to 1009 this evening. Looks to me like she's on her way.

[Recurve]

I was wondering...about that "trying to wrap around the center"
Or is it just a satellite artifact fooling untrained eyes? What I saw as some consolidation is farther west than the "center" position given from SAB above.
The last rainbow loop image on the floater loop seems to have popped some, and there's the look of a comma-shaped system, but certainly could just be an illusion from a fleeting arrangement of convective complexes. ?

Wish the flash loops had "save image as" the same as the java loops

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking like it is making its latest attempt at TC formation this evening , convection trying to wrap around the center

I don't know. People were posting the same thing this morning.......So I'm doubtful.

[StormTracker]

2morrow will be a day to sit back and reflect upon 2day's posts!

[HURAKAN]

Best Track

[thetruesms]

ULL appears to be winding down as High pressure builds in.
This may finally have a chance to form tonight.Tomorrow should be interesting.

It also looks to elongating some, which is keeping that shear zone from clearing out of the area very quickly, which could be an issue if that continues.

I agree. Its shearing out with a piece of the energy diving WSW. This will probably spin up another upper level low to the SW of where it is now. That will place 97L under SE'ly shear...which isn't so bad.

The one thing we cannot count on is what the pipcture will look like in 2 days. Upper level wind forecasts are so bad with these ULL's...it could be well SW of the system and providing great outflow...or it could stay west of it and shear it to death. No confidence at all in the upper wind forecast.

Indeed. I hope that the G-IV data will help out some, but one shot of dropsondes can only add so much - the future of this ULL is going to be so important, and yet is shrouded in a bit of mystery. How awesomely frustrating

[ConvergenceZone]

2morrow will be a day to sit back and reflect upon 2day's posts!

I still don't think there is any evidence that tomorrow's going to be different. Even the Mets here seem bearish on development compared to yesterday.

[boca]

When I look at the sat presentation I see inflow across Hispanola flowing towards the apparent center or is that shear from the ULL?

[AdamFirst]

Looking better by the minute

[Tropics Guy]

Looking at the latest sat pics, 97L looking better now than all day, deep convection developing now near the center, going over very warm SST's, shear may be relaxing some.................

TG

[AtlanticWind]

Pretty good drop in pressure from 1012 to 1009 this evening. Looks to me like she's on her way.

Where are these pressure readings from?

[thetruesms]

2morrow will be a day to sit back and reflect upon 2day's posts!

I still don't think there is any evidence that tomorrow's going to be different. Even the Mets here seem bearish on development compared to yesterday.

I like to think of it a bit more of snapping back to reality. I think even we got a little caught up in yesterday afternoon's burst - at least I did. In reality, this has always been a system with some potential, but with large challenges because of its environment. It was true yesterday, it was true today, and it'll be true tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

tomorrow should be interesting

[blp]

I am thinking the center is now just on the western edge of the convection. Still getting sheared like hell but the convection is creeping closer.

[StormTracker]

2morrow will be a day to sit back and reflect upon 2day's posts!

I still don't think there is any evidence that tomorrow's going to be different. Even the Mets here seem bearish on development compared to yesterday.

"I got a feelin', that 2nite's gonna be a good nite"(well morning anyway)!!! It's gonna happen, I can feel it!


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