ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
pricetag56
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:18 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1321 Postby pricetag56 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:54 am

Jevo wrote:0z ECMWF (Euro) +216 CONUS

Image

Really?? That is very interesting a major into LA???
0 likes   
Top
pricetag56
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:18 pm

#1322 Postby pricetag56 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:56 am

So what will the nhc do now about the future track i wonder???
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15986
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#1323 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:56 am

meriland23 wrote:strange that the euro is going more west while everyone else is more east... this is regardless of pace

Have to feel for the NHC...
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#1324 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:57 am

0z ECMWF (Euro) +240 CONUS

Image

That's all folks....... Not sure if I agree with it, but it is certainly sticking to it's guns
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
pricetag56
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:18 pm

#1325 Postby pricetag56 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:57 am

And why is the euro so much farther west?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15986
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#1326 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:57 am

pricetag56 wrote:So what will the nhc do now about the future track i wonder???

They'll probably split the differences.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15986
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#1327 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:58 am

pricetag56 wrote:And why is the euro so much farther west?

Has a weaker system compared to the GFS.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

#1328 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:59 am

Have a feeling they might not put a whole lot of faith into it and lean a lot closer to gfs. Debby certainly comes to mind.
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: Re:

#1329 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:59 am

Kingarabian wrote:
meriland23 wrote:strange that the euro is going more west while everyone else is more east... this is regardless of pace

Have to feel for the NHC...

yeah, what the eff to do sort of situation for sure. I would give the euro a few more runs, see if they are still sticking to their guns. If the GFS does not lean more westward in agreement afterward.. don't think I will pay much attention to euro
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1330 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:01 am

I am more concerned about strength though. I mean, in the past.. out of pure curiousity, has euro been accurate in terms of wind speeds? Or do they over-underestimate typically?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1331 Postby TwisterFanatic » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:01 am

Riptide wrote:This is exactly what happened during Tropical Storm Debby; the euro will move towards the GFS slowly in future runs.


Making definite statements like this is not very smart.

So, I guess one instance = every situation from now on.
Last edited by TwisterFanatic on Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1332 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:02 am

west run for the EURO....even futher west than the 12Z....
0 likes   
Top
USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2659
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1333 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:02 am

Considering the model agreement on a more eastern track, Euro's westward bias, and the fact that the Euro keeps Isaac pretty weak through the Caribbean (aiding in the westward bias) I wouldn't discount it but it seems pretty skeptical.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15986
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: Re:

#1334 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:02 am

meriland23 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
meriland23 wrote:strange that the euro is going more west while everyone else is more east... this is regardless of pace

Have to feel for the NHC...

yeah, what the eff to do sort of situation for sure. I would give the euro a few more runs, see if they are still sticking to their guns. If the GFS does not lean more westward in agreement afterward.. don't think I will pay much attention to euro

The 0z Euro run seems plausible but the ULL over Isaac will be moving away and Isaac is wrapping up really nicely tonight. Will see what happens.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Re:

#1335 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:04 am

Kingarabian wrote:
pricetag56 wrote:And why is the euro so much farther west?

Has a weaker system compared to the GFS.




Weaker up until about 120hr then it bombs in the GOM....


Lets not forget the the EURO nailed IKE and the other models took forever to catch on....it set the trend...
Last edited by ROCK on Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15986
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#1336 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:05 am

meriland23 wrote:I am more concerned about strength though. I mean, in the past.. out of pure curiousity, has euro been accurate in terms of wind speeds? Or do they over-underestimate typically?

The Euro and the GFS aren't exactly intensity models.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1337 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:07 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Wow huge difference thru 216 hrs compared to gfs. This is going to either be redemption for the euro or total fail this season. Not sure which way to lean yet.


Reason it stays weaker is land interaction through carib. ? Is definitely weaker than gfs until reaching the gulf. Like I said redemption or massive fail. What you think rock?
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15986
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: Re:

#1338 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:07 am

ROCK wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
pricetag56 wrote:And why is the euro so much farther west?

Has a weaker system compared to the GFS.




Weaker up until about 120hr then it bombs in the GOM....


Lets not forget the the EURO nailed IKE and the other models took forever to catch on....it set the trend...

That's what I meant, thanks for the correction!

Thought you slept through your alarm clock :D.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormhunter7

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1339 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:07 am

not buying into either globals yet.. but we have seen, with a system moving over 15kts.. its hard for low level reflection to stay attached to upper level environment, even with shear moving away. The strong ATL high has kept systems running a nice pace through caribbean on a west ward track, so far this year. The fact that euro keeps sliding west has got my attention for now....
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1340 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:09 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Wow huge difference thru 216 hrs compared to gfs. This is going to either be redemption for the euro or total fail this season. Not sure which way to lean yet.


Reason it stays weaker is land interaction through carib. Is definitely weaker that gfs until reaching the gulf. Lime I said redemption or massive fail. What you think rock?




I hug the EURO though I have been looking at the GFS more after Debbie.....you are correct ...it gets jacked up near Hispa which keeps it weaker and it never makes the trof connection.....shoots the channel and bombs.,,
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests