ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Latest vis sat image has Sally trying to fire off some hot towers

https://imgur.com/a/Boo0U7p

[tolakram]

visible loop
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

[Frank P]

visible loop
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

Yeah much better looking than a couple of hours ago, hot towers firing, shear looks gone... gonna be an interesting night I do believe.. that is such a cool animation too!

[3090]

Do you think the center is reforming or getting pulled into the convection?

It seems to be getting pulled into the convection, but the improved outflow may be exaggerating how quickly the alignment is happening.

Frame 2105 UTC the low level banding didn't appear further west.
Recon is almost there and this is getting important so laying down my bet on whether NOLA is going to have to evacuate in 6 months isn't a priority.

Explain the “NOLA is going to have to evacuate in 6 months”?

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1305261312398811139

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Aric Dunn]

Radar looking quite impressive in the last 45 minutes..

[PTPatrick]

Yeah models certainly seem to have picked up on the better presentation. Not ready to jump on it but I’m now more concerned. Seeing gfs and icon come East, going to have mom rush things completion. Thankfully the slow down buys them some morning hours before water will start rising.

[Jr0d]

Looks like Sally is finally becoming aligned. I expect significant strengthening tonight. I will even make an amateur 'prediction' that it will be a hurricane at the 11pm advisory.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks like Sally is finally becoming aligned. I expect significant strengthening tonight. I will even make an amateur 'prediction' that it will be a hurricane at the 11pm advisory.

Recon is suppose to head back out tonight..so at least we will be able to tell if stronger at that time. IF they don't have communication problems.

[bella_may]

It is important to note that a slower motion and stronger storm will more than likely put Lower Alabama into play for landfall. Some of the models still show this as a possibility. Even though they are barely in the cone (west end), I wouldn't sleep on the possibility. Recent experience with storms approaching from this angle tells me to expect a landfall more to the right than forecast. Just a hunch. NOT a forecast.

Yeah local met just mentioned some of the models going back east. Would put me very close to center

[BobHarlem]

It is important to note that a slower motion and stronger storm will more than likely put Lower Alabama into play for landfall. Some of the models still show this as a possibility. Even though they are barely in the cone (west end), I wouldn't sleep on the possibility. Recent experience with storms approaching from this angle tells me to expect a landfall more to the right than forecast. Just a hunch. NOT a forecast.

Yeah local met just mentioned some of the models going back east. Would put me very close to center

What's more striking about the 18z models to the east, to me anyway, is just how slow the thing is moving. Check out the landfall times, late Tuesday afternoon on GFS.. Late Wednesday on Icon/Nams.

[tropicwatch]

Radar looking quite impressive in the last 45 minutes..

Little far out but it looks like an eye wall might be trying to build.

[Hurricane Mike]

Shear is almost finished now, Sally should be able to intensify tonight and through the day tomorrow.

[psyclone]

Sanibel island is getting absolutely crushed by that feeder band. Radar estimates of 12" already per the flash flood warning text. Now they have a band stuck over them with torrential rain rates and tornadic potential. you don't need to be in the sustained gales of a system for a high end impact. amazing..

[Hurricane Mike]

Evening Video Update on Sally
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_Niw4qtx9w

[Dean4Storms]

Had that strong band come thru here near Destin in the Panhandle an hour ago, lightning, strong gusts and heavy rain with a power flicker or two.

[Nimbus]

It seems to be getting pulled into the convection, but the improved outflow may be exaggerating how quickly the alignment is happening.

Frame 2105 UTC the low level banding didn't appear further west.
Recon is almost there and this is getting important so laying down my bet on whether NOLA is going to have to evacuate in 6 months isn't a priority.

Explain the “NOLA is going to have to evacuate in 6 months”?

There was discussion earlier of Sally becoming a major hurricane stalled over the area which is not in the current forecast at all, I suppose I should have edited that "in" to a "for" since major hurricanes sometimes do require completely rebuilding communities.

Some people do use Storm2k to share important insider information, local evacuation information etc. so if things get serious near a landfall where life and property is at stake maybe we should try to stay on topic.

[Visioen]

New Levi Cowan video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZM6U84xWOY

[pcolaman]

Had that strong band come thru here near Destin in the Panhandle an hour ago, lightning, strong gusts and heavy rain with a power flicker or two.

We had one about an hour ago but can see one fixing to roll in from your area now.