Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 not until probably around the 10-11th as thats when the pattern is changing, but even then the specifics are still uncertain , but way too far out to talk about wintry precipitation chances, though if you want that, the GEFS is about as good of a setup as it gets for winter weather events in the deep south

[Brent]

Yeah it's not before the 11th here but the EPS is back to having some really big members for snowfall there's a 15 inch member for the 11th into the 12th

Again no way to tell anything that far out but there's definitely a signal

[Harp.1]

Happy new year everyone! Operationals still bleh, and all over the place! I wish everyone peace, happiness and winter weather as we head into 2026!

[starsfan65]

Happy new year everyone! Operationals still bleh, and all over the place! I wish everyone peace, happiness and winter weather as we head into 2026!

The ensembles are the models we need to watch carefully. Ops will drive you crazy.

[Stratton23]

Happy new years! And yes dont worry about what operational modes show at this range, the ensembles still look great and thats all that really matters right now

[starsfan65]

Happy new years! And yes dont worry about what operational modes show at this range, the ensembles still look great and thats all that really matters right now

That's True. Happy New Year!!!!!!

[Brent]

As long as the epo goes negative I don't think we have anything to worry about here

Our time is coming

Happy New Year

2nd EPS run in a row with a 15 inch snowfall member here

Some are nothing though

[wxman22]

Not winter weather related, but the Norman NWS issued the most severe thunderstorm warnings this year by far. One of the reasons I moved up here was to experience more severe weather and i haven't been disappointed lol.I love severe weather season almost as much as winter. But winterstorms are still my #1 favorite weather phenomenon.

[Brent]

AccuWeather is looking cold and very unsettled the week of the 11th already... Showing multiple days with a wintry threat temps could be more impressive but i mean to be honest even a rain event at this point would be nice

[wxman22]

There continues to be growing support in the models that some much needed rain may be on the way around the 8th. And a overrunning pattern may be on the menu. This system will be the trigger for the start of the pattern change.

Models also have the shortwave negatively tilted.A stormy pattern this time of year can sometimes be a precursor to an arctic air intrusion.

[Stratton23]

Also one thing to note, as we enter the period where blocking is setting up, it isn’t surprising to me that models have lost the blocking pattern, this pattern transition is marked by a temporary positive spike in the EPO/ WPO as things shift around, this is no surprise, we are on track for a cold 2nd half of the month, this is just a temporary period where the pattern is shifting

[wxman22]

BTW I don't currently see any *true arctic air showing up right now.But that's not necessarily a bad thing though, as less cold=more moisture. The upcoming pattern looks more El Nino'ish to me.The kind of pattern where the air may be just cold enough, you just need a storm system to tap into it. And you can get a big winterstorm with plenty of moisture to work with.

[Tireman4]

Happy New Year

[Harp.1]

I know, I know… but I would sure feel better if these operational runs would start to show something….

[Stratton23]

Again dont worry about what they show this far out lol, youll go crazy with the run to run variation, that being said after just taking a peak at the operational runs, the 12z Euro and CMC runs have a classic overrunning set up with an upper low out west and some chilly air in place, its going to take time for this pattern to really show up in operational runs, but those were certainly not bad runs at all, in fact thats what you want to see if you want winter weather down here, dont need crazy blocking, just enough

[Stratton23]

ensembles today have a classic el nino like look, blocking over the top, trough out west, considering it’s january, you dont need super cold temperatures to get some fun going, if anything ensembles today have an even more pronounced STJ over texas, I like our odds of not only seeing rain , but also frozen precipitation down the road, looks like fun times ahead

[txtwister78]

ensembles today have a classic el nino like look, blocking over the top, trough out west, considering it’s january, you dont need super cold temperatures to get some fun going, if anything ensembles today have an even more pronounced STJ over texas, I like our odds of not only seeing rain , but also frozen precipitation down the road, looks like fun times ahead

All about timing down here. Need to see that trough a little further east than what the ensembles show today otherwise you're looking at a lot of cutters and that won't cut it (lol) unless you're out west or maybe for far west Texas. Wouldn't shock me if we saw some severe weather with that look.

Still plenty of time though to watch trends but wouldn't bet on anything right now beyond what has been said which is opportunities for colder temps mid month continue with an active southern jet.

Need all the rain we can get. Happy New Year to all!

[Iceresistance]

This is the craziest -EPO GEFS I've ever seen


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bh91b.gif

[snownado]

After the brief cool down, DFW has made it back to 70*F today.

[Brent]

Again I want to stress id just like to see a big rain at this point. Were gonna have major problems again if we don't pick it up

And there is a point about if we get flooded with Arctic air it's probably gonna be dry anyway. We can do that later